The agreement for a deal to create the world's biggest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, has left experts in India divided. Many are asking if Asia's third-largest economy missed an opportunity to boost its economy or would the cost from joining the bloc have outweighed the benefits?
The RCEP is made up of 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including China, Japan, South Korea and Australia. The free trade pact was almost a decade in the making before it was finally signed a week ago. Members of the pact represent 30 per cent of the global economy, the combined equivalent of about $26 trillion of gross domestic product, and 30 per cent of the world's population, or about 2.2 billion customers.
But India walked away from negotiations last year. The government said it had concerns over imports flooding the market, to the detriment of local businesses.
“India needs to be very cautious before entering any such partnership as it hardly benefitted from its previous trade agreements in Southeast Asia,” Rakesh Mohan Joshi, chairperson and professor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, says.
“An influx of cheap Chinese products, directly or even through third country routes in the RCEP, had been an important concern – that it may threaten hundreds of thousands small and medium[-sized] businesses, throwing millions out of employment in India.”
India's trade deficit with several countries that are part of the RCEP has been growing in recent years – in particular with China. Figures from the Indian government show its trade deficit with China stood at $48.66 billion in the financial year to the end of March, as the country imports a higher value of Chinese goods compared with how much it exports. This trade deficit and dependence on Chinese imports is something the Indian government is eager to reduce.
Another concern that India had about the free trade deal was that dairy and other agricultural products imported from New Zealand and Australia could negatively affect the livelihoods of its farmers. Official figures show about half of India's population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods and the sector makes up about 15 per cent of GDP.
Fears about the deal coincided with the launch in May by India's prime minister Narendra Modi of a policy known as Atmanirbhar Bharat, which translates from Hindi as “self-reliant India”.
Even before this, Mr Modi had been focusing on lowering the country's dependence on imports. One of his flagship initiatives is the “Make in India” scheme, launched the year he came to power in 2014, which aims to transform the republic into a global manufacturing hub.
In a speech at an RCEP summit last year, Mr Modi said when withdrawing from the negotiations that “our farmers, traders, professionals and industries have stakes in such decisions".
"When I measure the RCEP agreement with respect to the interests of all Indians, I do not get a positive answer,” he said.
The government has stressed that its drive towards self-reliance does not mean that India should isolate itself from the global economy.
But Gary Hufbauer, a non-resident senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, says that India is becoming increasingly protectionist in its approach, and he argues that this is hampering its growth prospects.
“The external trade-to-GDP ratio is far lower for India than other countries of its economic size,” he says. “The RCEP offered a path out of this morass. Competition between Indian firms and firms based elsewhere in Asia – notably, South Korea, Japan, China, Singapore and Australia – could sharply improve the performance of Indian firms.”
Foreign direct investment from RCEP countries could also bring much-needed, highly-paid jobs and new technology to India, Mr Hufbauer explains.
“India will be the loser, not other RCEP countries and certainly not China.”
With border flashpoints between India and China flaring up this year, relations between the two nations have strained.
“In the short term, due to border tensions with China and the increasing trade deficit, not joining RCEP can be justified,” says Debraj Ghosal, Faculty-International Business & Strategy at Bhavan's SPJIMR. “But in the long run, India has to embrace more international competition and join global multilateral trade blocs.”
India has to look beyond domestic consumption, he says. Although the country has a population of 1.3 billion with an expanding middle class, global demand for its own goods and services could help propel India's economic growth to new heights.
“The goal should be to become self-reliant in a few critical sectors which are important for national security and pharmaceutical products,” Mr Ghosal says.
“For other sectors, [India should] follow a mix of domestic manufacturing and imports; embrace global components and technology to add value in India for exports [and] become part of the global value chain.”
But some trade experts argue that the RCEP is not in India's interests – at least for now.
“From outside it looks like a missed opportunity for India,” says Ambrish Kumar, the founder of digital logistics platform Zipaworld and group chief executive of AAA 2 Innovate. “However, India has rightly backed off, having had a close look at the flip side of the coin.”
He says India could benefit more from its own direct trade negotiations with countries like Japan.
At this stage, Mr Kumar says that “India is yet to become competitive in the manufacturing sector”, putting it at a disadvantage if it had joined the RCEP. This is something that needs to be improved.
“The coronavirus pandemic and the tensions with China have in some way paved the way for making manufacturing the need of the hour,” he says, adding that India's participation in the RCEP would have been “a roadblock” to this process.
Mr Joshi at the Indian Institute of Trade argues that the strategy of self-reliance is not about “isolation”, but “aimed at creating an ecosystem for indigenous manufacturing" that will eventually make its products competitive in international markets.
In the long run, India has to embrace more international competition and join global multilateral trade blocs
Besides, it is still possible that India could join the RCEP later.
“The idea of not joining this trade bloc is not a foolish one as India is still an observer with an option to join in the future,” says Gaurav Garg, the head of research at CapitalVia Global Research.
By sitting on the sidelines, India can boost its position in the long term, he argues.
“To make its trade more competitive and export-oriented, India is already reforming its domestic economic policies with Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat,” he says.
But with the RCEP proceeding without India, the country will need to work hard to make sure it is not left behind.
“The main advantages for India [of not joining the RCEP] would be time to develop competitiveness in focus industries and give protection to local industries,” says Mr Ghosal.
“India can benefit if it can bargain better terms and then join RCEP at a later date.”
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
England v West Indies
England squad for the first Test Cook, Stoneman, Westley, Root (captain), Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Roland-Jones, Broad, Anderson, Woakes, Crane
Fixtures
1st Test Aug 17-21, Edgbaston
2nd Test Aug 25-29, Headingley
3rd Test Sep 7-11, Lord's
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Rub of Time: Bellow, Nabokov, Hitchens, Travolta, Trump and Other Pieces 1986-2016
Martin Amis,
Jonathan Cape
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Champion%20v%20Champion%20(PFL%20v%20Bellator)
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FIGHT%20CARD
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
SPEC%20SHEET
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How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg