Will 2021 be Boris Johnson's worst year?

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a second class degree in Classics at Oxford and will be familiar with the Latin phrase “annus mirabilis”, or “wonderful year”.

In his “annus mirabilis”, 2019, Mr Johnson achieved his heart’s desire – becoming prime minister. In last December’s General Election, he annihilated his opponents and destroyed rebels in his own party by winning an 80 seat majority. He triumphed because he promised to “Get Brexit Done.” He then threatened the EU that he would walk away with “No Deal” unless they offered him “fantastic” terms, which meant the UK could “have our cake and eat it”.

Shoppers at Oxford Street in London, Britain, October 01. Neil Hall / EPA

Mr Johnson had enthusiastic support from the US President, which meant he could perhaps secure a rapid US-UK post-Brexit trade deal and reinvigorate the “special relationship”. Donald Trump praised Johnson publicly in terms even more glowing than he had used to describe North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un.

Mr Trump said: “We have a really good man who’s going to be the prime minister of the UK now. He’s tough and he’s smart. They’re saying, ‘Britain Trump’. They call him ‘Britain Trump’ and people are saying that’s a good thing.”

Boris Johnson goes for a walk in Central London, May 11. Toby Melville/ Reuters
Britain's main opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer attending the weekly Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the House of Commons in London on October 7. Handout photograph released by the UK Parliament / AFP
A pedestrian at London Bridge on September 25, 2020. Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a host of new restrictions as Covid-19 cases spike. Tolga Akmen / AFP
Labour leader Keir Starmer is shown around Barford Park Farm by NFU President Minette Batters on October 08, Salisbury, England. Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images
Pedestrians wear facemasks on London Bridge in central London on September 25. Tolga Akmen / AFP
In this photo provided by the United Nations, British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, speaks in a pre-recorded message which was played during the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, September 26, at the UN headquarters. Evan Schneider/UN Photo via AP
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes part in a game of cricket in a sports lesson during a visit to Ruislip High School in his constituency of Uxbridge, west London, on September 28. Stefan Rouseau/PA via AP
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during his visit to Exeter College on September 29, 2020 in Exeter, England. Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

If 2019 was Mr Johnson's “annus mirabilis” – he even managed to get divorced and father a new child – 2020 is Mr Johnson’s “annus horribilis”, a terrible year in which the wheels have come off the Johnson bandwagon. Brexit isn’t done. Mr Johnson set another self-invented deadline for finalising negotiations by mid-October.

Maybe something extraordinary this week will produce a rapid deal, or maybe not. Then the coronavirus pandemic exposed his personal as well as policy failures. He doesn’t do details, often doesn’t listen to expert advice, and has no clearly defined ideology or plan.

Instead Boris Johnson has a style, bragging like Donald Trump about his “world-beating” successes, which never quite exist in real life. He claimed UK coronavirus testing in 2020 would be “world-beating”. It isn’t. It is expensive and incompetent.

He himself caught the virus. The UK death rate is high. The arrival of a second wave has resulted in open rebellion from mayors in some of England’s great cities who say they are fed up with Mr Johnson’s chaotic “leadership”.

Mr Johnson’s cronies have been appointed to top positions. Companies with no experience in dealing with a viral epidemic have been awarded lucrative government contracts. TV comedians poke fun at him for mixed messages and an antiquated style of speaking.

Opinion polls now show the British Prime Minister is less popular than Labour's leader Kier Starmer. Conservative Members of Parliament are privately very uneasy that Mr Johnson is adrift in his high office.

Boris Johnson triumphed because he promised to 'get Brexit done', then threatened to walk away

It is bad but all the signs are that the “annus horribilis” could get even worse. Mr Johnson has shown no coherent plan for bearing down on coronavirus while the British economy is set to weaken still further.

On top of the pandemic, the self-inflicted wound of Brexit means that after four and a half years of blathering, the UK could face severe trade dislocation, confusion at British ports, a weakening of the currency and inevitably more job losses.

It appears that the Prime Minister has three options. The first is that Britain seeks yet another extension for more talks, but Brexit supporters will be furious at any further delay.

Option two is that to get a last minute deal Mr Johnson will – as he has done before – concede whatever the EU demands yet present it as a "fantastic success". Staunch Brexit campaigners like Nigel Farage will be even more furious and call it a "sell-out".

The third possibility is that there will be no deal, which will do massive self-inflicted damage to the UK economy. While Brexit hardliners may rejoice at No Deal, Mr Johnson will be faced with leading a government through years of economic turmoil, while financing the cost of existing economic damage from coronavirus. That presumably means unpopular tax rises.

As the former prime minister Tony Blair once put it to me, Mr Johnson ultimately must choose between “a pointless Brexit or a painful Brexit”, a deal which does profound damage to the British economy, or one which aligns Britain with Europe, does less damage but does indeed seem pointless.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street in central London on October 7 to attend the weekly session of Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) at the House Commons. Niklas Hallen / AFP

If 2020 was bad, next year could be even worse. Polls suggest that in January 2021, it will be Joe Biden who is inaugurated President of the US. “Britain Trump” is already desperately trying to cosy up to “America Biden”, but given the way Mr Johnson derided the Obama presidency when Joe Biden was vice president, a warm Johnson-Biden relationship seems unlikely.

And so, out of the EU, probably out of favour with the White House, Mr Johnson might find British voters, after a terrible year, come to learn another Latin phrase in 2021 – “annus exitiabilis” or a “catastrophic year”.

Gavin Esler is a UK columnist for The National

The bio

Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer

Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist

Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi

Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup

Hobbies: Reading and drawing

On Women's Day

Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action

Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?

Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality

The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?

Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin

War 2

Director: Ayan Mukerji

Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana

Rating: 2/5

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

'The worst thing you can eat'

Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:

Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.

Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.

Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.

Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.

Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.

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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer