There are reasons for both Democrats and Republicans to be happy

Saturday in Washington was like nothing I have experienced in 22 years living in this city. Horns honked, cheers resounded, fireworks crackled and people danced in the streets. It felt like a long, painful war was ending with an almost visceral wave of relief.

Four days after the US election, major news organisations finally and unanimously announced that Democrat Joe Biden had won. President Donald Trump and his allies angrily insist that he somehow is the real winner but they have no coherent narrative to explain why.

Against a backdrop of unprecedented anxiety, the 2020 election mainly produced good news. For many, there’s profound satisfaction that Mr Trump was defeated. Many distinguished figures had warned that a second Trump term could pose an existential threat to democratic institutions, accountability and the rule of law. A major counter-argument was that he lacked the ability, but not the instinct, to push for autocracy.

Any such danger has been avoided.

The presidential win is cathartic for Democrats. It is rare and increasingly difficult to unseat a sitting president.

And the numbers are impressive. In 2016, Mr Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the electoral college by securing 306 votes, though she won the popular tally by almost 3 million. Mr Biden is also heading for 306, but is beating Mr Trump by over 4m popular votes, a double mandate.

Democrats reconstructed the mid-western "blue wall" that Mr Trump grabbed in 2016, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They scored major breakthroughs in traditionally Republican Arizona and Georgia. Democrats would have salivated over this map 12 months ago, though their hopes became exaggerated more recently.

But there's much to please Republicans, too. They made surprising gains in the House of Representatives and crucial state legislatures. Control of the Senate will be decided by two January run-off elections in Georgia. If Republicans win both, they can effectively wield a veto over most of Mr Biden's domestic agenda.

Mr Trump helped inspire the biggest voter turnout in over a century, which was also due to expanded postal and early voting because of the pandemic.

In what was effectively a Trump referendum, no votes prevailed by 4-5m. But there were over 70m yeses, including most of his 2016 voters and significantly expanded blocs of Latinos and African-Americans, particularly younger men who appear to admire his swagger.

So, while many Republicans may be despondent, their party actually did fairly well.

Republican leaders might quietly welcome the potential end of Mr Trump's party leadership. But their refusal to publicly acknowledge Mr Biden's victory suggests they are still terrified of Mr Trump's base, and unwilling to defy him.

American democratic norms and processes prevailed. None of the well-publicised nightmare scenarios played out.

Though an anti-democratic hazard was soundly rejected, the best news of all was non-partisan, structural and institutional. Political systems functioned admirably despite profound social and partisan polarisation and the raging coronavirus pandemic.

Foreign meddling was contained. There was no violence or intimidation at polling places and no effort to disrupt the election process. Irregularities appear minor at worst.

State and local administrators who oversee American elections generally behaved impeccably. Democratic and Republican officials, and countless volunteers and election officers, worked together across the country without incident or rancour.

Americans in their conduct overwhelmingly upheld cherished democratic norms and traditions. The country may be polarised, but citizens on both the left and right appear sincerely committed to these values and mores. This is profoundly reassuring.

Mr Trump may be hoping that the Supreme Court, now bolstered with his latest conservative appointee, Amy Coney Barrett, will intervene and save him, as he repeatedly predicted it would during the campaign. He is going to be deeply disappointed.

This result is not within what is cynically but accurately called "cheating distance", and no pending case would overturn the outcome. If the court tried to overturn a free and fair election on a technicality, it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis and do irreversible damage to the institution.

Mr Biden’s challenges will be enormous. He inherits a country still beset by a raging pandemic and struggling economy, and deeply divided along partisan, cultural and ethnic lines.

In his first speech as President-elect, he pledged to end the "grim era of demonisation” under Mr Trump and rebuild a spirit of compromise, co-operation and bipartisanship, but that won't be easy.

Much depends on what happens in the Senate, through both its composition as determined by the two Georgia run-off races, and the strategy adopted by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. He ground governance to a virtual halt during much of the Barack Obama presidency, and could choose to repeat that strategy.

Mr Trump ought to help matters by at least acknowledging his defeat, but he seems incapable of that. He appears determined to promulgate a classic right-wing "stabbed in the back" theory that insists he is still the legitimate President, and so exacerbate tensions and further divide Americans.

Once he's gone, however unwillingly, much of the country will try to move on. But the willingness and ability of the Republican Party to get past the Trump era remains an open question

Reports suggest he might nonetheless be willing to negotiate a normal transfer of power. His terms are unclear, but he faces significant potential criminal charges at both the federal and state levels, and has reportedly expressed concern he may face prosecution when he loses the protection of the presidency. He could be hoping for salvation through the art of the deal.

Mr Trump will probably be the first modern US President to refuse to concede defeat and participate in his successor’s inauguration. More likely is a new media-centred career of insisting that he’s still the real President and American democracy is a corrupt fraud.

He could inflict significant national damage while he is still formally in office until January 20, but he could also be restrained or even ignored, including by subordinates. His options might be more limited in practice than in theory.

Once he's gone, however unwillingly, much of the country will try to move on. But the willingness and ability of the Republican Party to get past the Trump era remains an open question. The immediate US political future may hang on the answer.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Section 375

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