Ferrari's decision to sign little known Spaniard Carlos Sainz for 2021 is nothing short of mystifying.
Even after five years in Formula One the name is more synonymous with his father, a buccaneering double rally champion who retired 15 years ago.
And while Maranello will celebrate the youngest line-up in their history, the Gestione Sportiva has never, traditionally, been about investing in tomorrow.
There is an impatient and passionate Italian nation hanging over their shoulder and sponsors paying top dollar for success.
In the past, Ferrari have been accused of having more money than sense, but they could afford to be that way. They let other teams deal in potential. They usually flashed the cash once a soaring reputation was established.
Fernando Alonso, Michael Schumacher, and Sebastian Vettel were all champions before the boys in red came knocking.
In fact, you have to go back to 1995 for the last time Maranello didn't have a champion in their line-up. And for five years straight, up to last year, they only had champions at the wheel.
So why the dramatic change in approach that sees them turning to a duo with a handful of wins between them? Ferrari have rarely taken risks on potential as heavily as they are in 2021.
Charles Leclerc may have been just one season in to his F1 career when they snapped him up, but that was a near guarantee. Plus, they already had a four-time champion in the other car.
In signing Sainz they not only ushered the second-biggest name in F1 out the door but passed on Alonso and Daniel Ricciardo as well.
Alonso would surely bring trouble, but so what? Riccardo can beat the best and he is of Italian descent. Better than perfect, surely?
Of course, neither would have come cheap. Alonso at $45 million (Dh165.3m) and Ricciardo south of his current, humble, $29.6m Renault stipend. By comparison Sainz will only cost a few million.
Maybe Ferrari don’t want a Lewis Hamilton? They want a Valtteri Bottas: a No 2 faithfully following team orders. An Eddie Irvine or Rubens Barrichello: quick enough to see them to the constructors' championship but not fast enough to disturb Leclerc’s mojo.
Risking it with Sainz then means relying on Leclerc, in only his fourth season in F1, to be Ferrari’s standard bearer. That is a lot of pressure on a young racer. Cruising to victory in Vettel’s shadow is very different from shouldering the hopes of a team and nation yourself.
It’s interesting to pause here and reflect on the man making the decisions: new Ferrarai boss Mattia Binotto. Apparently pulled out of nowhere last year he has, in fact, been in key roles since the 1990s. Politically adept and culturally savvy he doesn’t appear the kind to risk his career recklessly on an also-ran.
He may be part of the furniture at Maranello, but he will be aware it would only take a few wrong decisions and he would be out of the door.
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Rated: the F1 2020 drivers' lineup
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ON THE GRID FOR 2020 SEASON: Nicholas Latifi (CAN) - Williams. Car: 6; age: 24; starts: 0. The Canadian rookie is partnered with George Russell after Robert Kubica was dropped just one season into his comeback year. AFP -
George Russell (GBR) - Williams. Car: 63; age: 22; starts: 21; wins: 0. Surely it cannot get any worse for Williams? Despite being able to boast 16 combined drivers' and team titles, the British team finished rooted to the foot of the championship last year after scoring just one point. Reuters -
Kevin Magnussen (DEN) - Haas. Car: 20; age: 27; starts: 102; wins: 0. Having previously established themselves as solid midfield runners, the American team will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2019 campaign where they finished ninth. AFP -
Romain Grosjean (FRA) - Haas. Car: 8; age: 33; starts: 164; wins: 0. Grosjean will be joined once more by Magnussen - their fourth year together as teammates. Reuters -
Antonio Giovinazzi (ITA) - Alfa Romeo. Car: 99; age: 26; starts: 23; wins: 0. Italian Giovinazzi has been retained by Alfa Romeo for a second season. EPA -
Kimi Raikkonen (FIN) - Alfa Romeo. Car: 7; age: 40; starts: 312; wins: 21; championships: 1 (2007). Former world champion Raikkonen will this year become the most-capped F1 driver. The veteran Finn is just 10 races shy of Rubens Barrichello's record of 322 starts. EPA -
Lance Stroll (CAN) - Racing Point. Car: 18; age: 21; starts: 62; wins: 0. Canadian Stroll starts his second campaign at Racing Point. EPA -
Sergio Perez (MEX) - Racing Point. Car: 11; age: 30; starts: 176; wins: 0. Following a rather underwhelming campaign, Racing Point proved to be one of the major talking points at testing after their new car resembled a carbon-copy of last year's title-winning Mercedes. Mexican driver Perez has been with the team since 2014. Reuters -
Daniil Kvyat (RUS) - Alphatauri. Car: 26; age: 25; starts: 93; wins: 0. The Russian was retained for a second straight year of his yo-yo career. EPA -
Pierre Gasly (FRA) - Alphatauri. Car: 10; age: 24; starts: 47; wins: 0. A new season and a new name for Red Bull's junior team with Toro Rosso re-branded as AlphaTauri for the forthcoming campaign. Gasly, dropped by Red Bull midway through last season, drives alongside Kvyat. EPA -
Esteban Ocon (FRA) - Renault. Car: 31; age: 23; starts: 50; wins: 0. Ocon spent last season on the sidelines after losing his seat to Lance Stroll at Racing Point. Reuters -
Daniel Ricciardo (AUS) - Renault. Car: 3; age: 30; starts: 171; wins: 7. Ricciardo is joined by Ocon as Renault bid to bounce back from a disappointing 2019. EPA -
Lando Norris (GBR) - McLaren. Car: 4; age: 20; starts : 21; wins: 0. After an impressive rookie campaign, British driver Norris is set for his second season in F1. AFP -
Carlos Sainz (ESP) - McLaren. Car: 55; age: 25; starts: 102; wins: 0. McLaren emerged from the doldrums last season with their best performance in years as they finished fourth in the constructors' table. Sainz also scored McLaren's first podium since 2012 when he was promoted to third in Brazil. EPA -
Alexander Albon (THA) - Red Bull. Car: 23; age: 23; starts: 21; wins: 0. London-born Albon is set for just his second season in F1 and his first full campaign as a Red Bull driver after he was promoted from Toro Rosso following last year's summer break. EPA -
Max Verstappen (NED) - Red Bull. Car: 33; age: 22; starts: 102; wins: 7. Verstappen was one of the stars of last year after he finished third in the championship behind Lewis Hamilton and Bottas. Verstappen, 22, could prove Hamilton's closest challenger if Red Bull can build on a package which fired the Dutchman to three victories last season. Reuters -
Charles Leclerc (MON) - Ferrari. Car: 16; age: 22; starts: 42; wins: 2. Last year, Leclerc finished ahead of Vettel in the championship, scoring a greater number of pole positions and victories than his four-time world championship-winning teammate. Reuters -
Sebastian Vettel (GER) - Ferrari. Car: 5; age: 32; starts: 240; wins: 53; championships: 4 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). Vettel and Leclerc will lock horns for a second season in what is the sport's fiercest team rivalry. Their combustible relationship spilled over in Brazil when they collided, forcing both drivers out of the race. Ferrari have not celebrated a drivers' champion since 2007, and after a mixed pre-season campaign, the Italian team fear they will start this year on the back foot. EPA -
Valtteri Bottas (FIN) - Mercedes. Car: 77; age: 30; starts: 139; wins: 7. Bottas partners world champion Lewis Hamilton for a fourth straight season. Reuters -
Lewis Hamilton (GBR) - Mercedes. Car: 44; age: 35; starts: 250; wins: 84; championships: 6 (2008, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019). Mercedes have been the dominant team in Formula One since 2014, winning a record six consecutive drivers' and constructors' championships. Hamilton has been the driving force behind their success and the British driver will start the new campaign as the favourite to win his sixth world championship in seven years to equal Michael Schumacher's overall record. Reuters
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Perhaps the apparent lack of ambition reflects their reservations about the competitiveness of this year’s car, which will be used in 2021 too. The results from pre-season testing were beyond alarming for a team of their calibre.
Then there are Sainz’s stark career stats. He has shown clear speed but never set the world alight. Promised the world and delivered an atlas. He was begrudgingly recruited by Red Bull, never key in their thinking and bounced through Toro Rosso and Renault to McLaren without really tearing up any trees.
In his best season just passed, his fifth in F1, he wasn’t clearly better than 19-year-old rookie Lando Norris. But the sterling Brazil drive from last to a fourth that eventually became his first podium summed his career up. It was good but ...
Surely the straw Maranello is clutching at doesn’t come from the fact that Sainz ran a rookie 17-year-old Max Verstappen mighty close in their first year in F1?
Of course, there is another intriguing possibility. With the coronavirus pushing back the dawn of an exciting new F1 era to 2022, Sainz could be the stop-gap option, easily disposable for a marque signing already committed from 2022: namely Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen.
By then record-breaker Hamilton will probably have nothing left to prove with Mercedes or, more likely, Verstappen will be ready for a long, eye-watering deal in red.
Now that really does make sense.
