DUBAI // Rising extremism in Yemen, food security, regional tensions, climate change and unemployment all pose security challenges for the UAE, according to analysts and a new report on global threats. "Developments across the region in recent years have emphasised the primacy of political over purely economic issues in generating large-scale political instability," the report, RiskMap 2010, said in its assessment of Middle Eastern security threats.
The publication was launched in Dubai yesterday by Control Risks, a security consultancy which has offices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Representatives of the group also addressed the Crisis and Emergency Management Conference in Abu Dhabi last week. The report identified the rise of al Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), conflict over Iran's nuclear programme and tensions in Iraq as the primary threats to regional security - with implications for the UAE.
The rise of AQAP poses the risk of radicalisation among immigrants entering the UAE from Africa through Yemen, said Marie Bos, the group's chief Gulf analyst and a former researcher on the UN Development Programme in the UAE. "Yemen is an open door to the region so you have a lot of people coming from the horn of Africa through Yemen, hoping to make it in the Gulf states", she said. That was part of the impetus for Saudi Arabia signing a deal last year to build a security barrier on the Yemen border, she said.
Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian who tried to blow up an airliner bound for Detroit last month, had studied in Yemen before moving to Dubai early last year, returning to Sana'a in August where he allegedly planned the attack. Paul Burke, a terrorism and security expert based in Abu Dhabi, agreed that the radicalisation of immigrants arriving through Yemen was a potential concern. Authorities had to watch out for two types of people, he said - those with a predisposition towards extremism, and those likely to be influenced by other extremists.
Sound intelligence is needed to apprehend the former group, but the second group could be countered through community initiatives. Mr Burke said the maritime threat in the event of an attack against Iran, or even "if the Iranian regime perceived that an attack against it was imminent", could pose a significant threat to UAE and GCC oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz. "Mine clearance operations are never quick, and maritime mine clearance is especially time-consuming", Mr Burke said. "The Iranian armed forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps have a well-developed mine-laying capability, including tethered mines, rocket-propelled mines, non-magnetic mines."
He said mines were not the only threat. "Weapons previously seen only in the stocks of national armed forces are now making their way into the armouries of non-state groups. These weapons have a dramatic increase in the potential impact resulting from their use, and the use of such weapons could potentially close the Hormuz strait, in the event of an attack against Iran. The UAE's close ties with the West also made it a potential target, but the country enjoys advantages in the fight against extremism that have prevented the formation of homegrown terrorist cells. Chief among them was the focus, through the Critical National Infrastructure Authority, on protecting the country's facilities.
Assessing these advantages, Ms Bos said: "First of all, good security and counter-terrorism strategies, especially following the wave of attacks in Saudi Arabia. We've seen significant capacity building in that area. They've created security forces dedicated to the protection of infrastructure, especially from terrorism threats. "They're particularly well-trained, and they seem to be really on top of their game."
The lack of tolerance for violent extremists in society was also important, she said. "There doesn't seem to be much support from the local population for any sort of extremist activities. It's just Emirati society, their traditions and practices don't embrace these sorts of activities." While piracy was unlikely to reach beyond isolated incidents off the Omani coast because of the security presence in the Gulf, there was scope for implementing advanced monitoring systems for the country's offshore oil drills, said Jonathan Wood, an energy security and climate change analyst.
But the major concern was safeguarding oil supplies in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which the group believes is less likely than a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear stand-off. Mr Wood also outlined risks the UAE faces from environmental problems, especially climate change, which include a disruption in water and food supplies as a result of the proximity of the country's desalination plants to the sea, the effects on countries where the UAE is investing in agriculture, and the impact of heavy desalination of local waters.
Food security is an issue that the UAE has been struggling with since a sudden rise in food prices in early 2008, Ms Bos said. "It is a significant issue, there's no doubt about this. The country is largely dependent on food imports", she said. While the UAE is investing in agricultural development abroad to ensure reliable food supplies, "since then, many have realised that it's not such a straightforward issue."
"Buying land and growing crops to be sent abroad is not without difficulties and challenges. They're entirely linked to the local context as well as the social fabric of the country they're dealing with", Ms Bos said. "Difficulties have arisen." Finally, Michael Denison, the group's research director and a former special adviser to David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, said unemployment posed a political and social risk to countries in the region. He pointed to a joint report by the Arab League and the UN Development Programme that said the Arab world would need to create 51 million jobs by 2020 to keep employment at current levels. The UAE's population is largely young. Almost 80 per cent of Emiratis in Abu Dhabi are under 40.
@Email:kshaheen@thenational.ae
