For all the controversy that attended Donald Trump’s ungracious exit from the White House this week, America’s 45th president will ultimately be remembered for his groundbreaking approach to politics, both at home and abroad.
While Mr Trump’s confrontational, and at times petulant, approach made him a divisive figure, causing as much friction with allies as it did Washington’s adversaries, he has nevertheless succeeded in forging a legacy that his successor, the newly inaugurated President Joe Biden, will find it extremely difficult to reverse.
This is particularly true in the Middle East, where it is no understatement to say that Mr Trump’s approach has transformed Washington’s relations with the region – in many respects for the better.
On key issues such as Iran and the Arab-Israeli peace process, Mr Trump’s policies have caused a fundamental shift in the region’s geopolitics, creating a clear division between moderate, progressive states that are seeking to build a brighter future for the region, and rejectionist regimes such as Iran and Turkey that are only interested in promoting division and conflict. As a result, Tehran and Ankara now find themselves firmly entrenched on the wrong side of history.
In his valedictory video, Mr Trump was not shy about highlighting what he regards as his principal achievements in the region, claiming that the recent peace deals struck between Israel and a number of Arab states, including the UAE, was the result of “our bold diplomacy and principled realism”, which had resulted in “a series of historic peace deals in the Middle East”.
“The Abraham Accords opened the doors to a future of peace and harmony, not violence and bloodshed. It is the dawn of a new Middle East,” he declared.
The former president was also keen to emphasise the role he has played in defeating ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, as well as confronting Iran over its continued meddling in the region.
“We obliterated the ISIS caliphate and ended the wretched life of its founder and leader, al Baghdadi,” Mr Trump declared. “We stood up to the oppressive Iranian regime and killed the world’s top terrorist, Iranian butcher Qassem Suleimani.”
These are all significant achievements for which Mr Trump deserves credit. Moreover, the undoubted success the former president has enjoyed means that Mr Biden’s room for manoeuvre will be extremely limited as he seeks to forge a new approach in Washington’s dealings with the outside world.
As was clear from Mr Biden’s inaugural address, America’s 46th president wants to restore its reputation on the global stage, vowing to repair alliances and re-engage with the outside world.
Consequently, some of the first steps taken by the new Biden administration will be to act quickly to reverse some of Mr Trump’s more controversial decisions.
One of Mr Biden’s first acts as president, therefore, is to rejoin the World Health Organisation, the UN-sponsored body responsible for overseeing the world’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Mr Trump withdrew from the body last year claiming it was too close to Beijing and was not holding China to account for its alleged role in creating the pandemic in the first place.
Another controversial Trump policy that will be reversed early in the new administration is Washington’s withdrawal from what Mr Trump has described as “the impossible Paris Climate Accord”. The decision to rejoin the agreement is hardly surprising as the original Paris climate negotiations took place under the administration of former president Barack Obama and were led by John Kerry when he was secretary of state. Mr Kerry has now been appointed as the Biden administration’s climate change czar, and the decision to rejoin the Paris Accord will take 30 days to come into effect.
America's 46th president wants to restore its reputation on the global stage
But while it will be relatively straightforward for the new US administration to make changes on foreign policy issues like global health and climate change, Mr Biden may find it a great deal more difficult to reverse Mr Trump’s policies on more challenging issues, especially in relation to the Middle East.
The historically tense relationship between the Democrats and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which came to a head over the Obama administration’s involvement in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal, suggests that the new administration might, for example, be tempted to distance itself from Mr Trump’s Middle East strategy. But even if, as seems likely, relations between Mr Netanyahu and Mr Biden, who himself was heavily involved in the nuclear negotiations, remain problematic, the Abraham Accords are so patently a positive development for the region that it would be foolhardy in the extreme for Mr Biden to initiate any action that undermined them.
The Iranian issue promises to be even more problematic for Mr Biden, not least because Iran had deliberately intensified its defiance of the international community in relation to its nuclear activities before Mr Biden had even taken office.
In recent weeks, Tehran has made a series of provocative announcements relating to its nuclear activities, such as the declaration that it has started work on enriching uranium to 20 per cent – just short of the level required to produce nuclear weapons – and the more recent announcement that it is advancing research on uranium metal production, aiming to provide advanced fuel for a research reactor in Tehran.
Both these developments represent clear breaches of the Obama-era nuclear deal.
The latest moves by Iran have already prompted an angry response from the EU, which was also involved in negotiating the original agreement and is now warning Tehran that the deal might collapse unless it changes its behaviour.
Certainly, if Iran persists with its provocative nuclear activities, then Mr Biden will have no alternative than to maintain his predecessor’s uncompromising policy of confronting the nuclear ambitions of Iran’s leaders.
Con Coughlin is a defence and foreign affairs columnist for The National
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
GREATEST ROYAL RUMBLE CARD
The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Gina%20Prince-Bythewood%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Viola%20Davis%2C%20Thuso%20Mbedu%2C%20Sheila%20Atim%2C%20Lashana%20Lynch%2C%20John%20Boyega%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
