As tensions between the US and Iran heat up over the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani in Baghdad on Friday, the Democrat Party is trying to politicise the potential of a war between the two countries. It has a good shot at making the issue a stone around President Donald Trump's neck but it has far fewer answers as to how to handle the actual challenge of Iran. That lack of strategy is likely to embolden an Iran that is watching America's electoral calendar carefully and the Iranians will conclude that the Democrats' lack of a realistic strategy is an opportunity for them.
The recent introduction of a War Powers Resolution designed to prevent conflict with Iran by the Democratic-held House of Representatives is already dead in the water. It is not just that the Republican-led Senate will not pass their own version; it is also that the War Powers Resolution has never truly been tested and Congress has spent decades since the Second World War deferring war-making powers to president after president. So the resolution is more about politics than policy.
The Democrats are not clear whether they would give Tehran sanctions relief as a good-faith first step – and it is even less clear that even if sanctions ended, the Iranians truly would return to the deal
That politics has meant Democrats have focused on a combination of attacking Mr Trump and talking up diplomacy. Elizabeth Warren, a leading 2020 presidential election contender, accused Mr Trump of “taking us to the edge of war” to distract from impeachment. Bernie Sanders used more idealistic language. “Maybe what we should be doing is figuring out how as a planet we work together instead of going to war with each other,” he said. Joe Biden, the former vice president who was part of the Iran nuclear negotiations under then president Barack Obama in 2015, called Mr Trump “erratic” in the wake of the Suleimani killing.
Left unsaid is what any of them would do if they were president to de-escalate with Iran beyond simply returning to the nuclear deal, which Mr Trump pulled the US out of in 2018. After all, this is the strategy favoured by most Democrats. But that is a strategy based more on nostalgia than reality. The nuclear deal has been deeply undermined by both sides. Trust is shattered.
Emblematic of this broken trust is the problem with even getting negotiations started again. The Iranians are demanding the end of sanctions before they return to negotiations. Yet the Democrats are not clear whether they would give Tehran this kind of relief as a good-faith first step – and it is even less clear that even if sanctions ended, the Iranians truly would return to the deal.
That is just the first hurdle that awaits Democratic policymakers. Proxy conflicts, a fresh record of violence by both sides and a heightened Israeli-Iranian conflict are all new or increased obstacles to getting Iran and the US back to their rosier Obama-era relations.
The proxy conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon are largely ignored by the Democrats. Each one involves a layer of Iranian, American, regional and local interests, and – with the exception of recent diplomatic progress in Yemen – each now is enduring greater strain because of the confrontation. Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or Kaitab Hezbollah in Syria and Iraq pose a lasting threat to US allies and interests. The Obama administration chose to ignore them in the negotiations that led to the 2015 deal; that is no longer nearly so easy. Since the deal was signed, Israel began actively attacking Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, Houthi rebels were emboldened to overrun Sanaa kicking off a regional war in Yemen, and Iraqi proxies began attacking US forces in Iraq. Those new conflicts need to be addressed as part of a broader US-Iran rapprochement.
There is also new blood spilled since the deal was signed – most recently of Suleimani, and likely to involve more casualties if cycles of retaliation take hold. As that cycle plays out over the year, the Democrats will have to contend with a record of casualties that might include Americans – and it is unclear whether American domestic politics will back a diplomacy-first strategy if that happens. That also extends to the Iranians. In short, Suleimani’s death will haunt US-Iran relations for many years to come.
Finally, the Democrats rarely address the real problem of Israel’s anti-Iranian strategy. Israel has become considerably more aggressive in the Trump era. That is in part because of Mr Trump’s backing, but it is also because Iran is a more advanced opponent than it was under Mr Obama – with more proxies, more missiles and rockets, and a programme that remains able to eventually develop a nuclear weapon. While Democrats may criticise Israel for increasing tension, that criticism is not enough to really change Israel’s strategy, as it sees Iran as a growing existential threat. If Israel’s concerns are not addressed, there is a very real chance any American outreach to Iran could be upended by an Israeli strike on Iran’s allies or Iran itself.
These gaps in Democrats’ diplomacy first strategy are an opportunity for the Iranians. They see a party that, for domestic political purposes, wants to quickly fast-track diplomacy and might be willing to cede ground in order to avoid confrontation. That will make Tehran more likely to try to play America’s domestic politics to its own ends. In the short term, that will make the Iranians want to avoid a major conflict with the US that could prematurely upend the Democrats’ diplomacy first strategy.
But in the long run – especially if the Democrats do take the White House in 2020 – it will make the Iranians aggressively exploit Democratic sentiment to avoid conflict. Democrats will need more substantial answers to the challenge of Iran if they are to maintain America’s standing in the region.
Ryan Bohl is a Middle East and North Africa analyst at geopolitical risk consultancy Stratfor, focused on regional strategy, security, politics and social contracts
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
The five pillars of Islam
RESULTS
Welterweight
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) beat Mostafa Radi (PAL)
(Unanimous points decision)
Catchweight 75kg
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) beat Leandro Martins (BRA)
(Second round knockout)
Flyweight (female)
Manon Fiorot (FRA) beat Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
(RSC in third round)
Featherweight
Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB) beat Ahmed Al Darmaki
(Disqualification)
Lightweight
Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) beat Rey Nacionales (PHI)
(Unanimous points)
Featherweight
Yousef Al Housani (UAE) beat Mohamed Fargan (IND)
(TKO first round)
Catchweight 69kg
Jung Han-gook (KOR) beat Max Lima (BRA)
(First round submission by foot-lock)
Catchweight 71kg
Usman Nurmogamedov (RUS) beat Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
(TKO round 1).
Featherweight title (5 rounds)
Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
(TKO round 1).
Lightweight title (5 rounds)
Bruno Machado (BRA) beat Mike Santiago (USA)
(RSC round 2).
Rebel%20Moon%20-%20Part%20One%3A%20A%20Child%20of%20Fire
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZack%20Snyder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESofia%20Boutella%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%2C%20Ed%20Skrein%2C%20Michiel%20Huisman%2C%20Charlie%20Hunnam%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK%20-%20UAE%20Trade
%3Cp%3ETotal%20trade%20in%20goods%20and%20services%20(exports%20plus%20imports)%20between%20the%20UK%20and%20the%20UAE%20in%202022%20was%20%C2%A321.6%20billion%20(Dh98%20billion).%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThis%20is%20an%20increase%20of%2063.0%20per%20cent%20or%20%C2%A38.3%20billion%20in%20current%20prices%20from%20the%20four%20quarters%20to%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20was%20the%20UK%E2%80%99s%2019th%20largest%20trading%20partner%20in%20the%20four%20quarters%20to%20the%20end%20of%20Q4%202022%20accounting%20for%201.3%20per%20cent%20of%20total%20UK%20trade.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Formula One top 10 drivers' standings after Japan
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 306
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 234
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 192
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 148
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 111
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 82
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 65
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 48
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 34
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 3.6 V6
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Power: 295bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: Dh155,000
On sale: now
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
Company profile: buybackbazaar.com
Name: buybackbazaar.com
Started: January 2018
Founder(s): Pishu Ganglani and Ricky Husaini
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech, micro finance
Initial investment: $1 million
Killing of Qassem Suleimani