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Lebanese politicians believe that, despite severe escalations and high civilian casualties, Israel’s war on Lebanon follows an undeclared rule book, with Hezbollah focusing on military targets and Israeli air strikes sparing the country’s infrastructure and army.
However, as the conflict drags on, they fear Israel aims not just to weaken Hezbollah, but to completely eradicate the Iran-backed militant group, Lebanon’s most powerful force since the civil war of 1975 to 1990. For them, this is the worst-case scenario: an indefinite war, a no man’s land along the southern border and internal strife.
“The civil war lasted for 15 years. This war could last longer even if a new resolution [ceasefire] is reached,” a senior Lebanese politician told The National. “Israel has made up its mind, and the world won’t stop it. We saw it in Gaza – everyone calls for a ceasefire, yet deep down, everyone hopes it doesn’t happen. The same is now unfolding in Lebanon."
For decades, Hezbollah has been a key player in Lebanese politics and the military sphere. While it is represented in parliament and the government, it possesses a military force far greater than that of the regular army, with hundreds of thousands of well-trained fighters, along with a large arsenal of weapons including missiles, rockets and drones.
It also has a significant presence in neighbouring Syria, where it helped the regime of President Bashar Al Assad to suppress peaceful protests and combat extremist groups, with Hezbollah establishing itself as a cross-border militant force with diverse supply routes.
“Israel has been fighting Hamas for over a year in a small territory, and it hasn’t defeated it yet," the source said. "How long will it take to eradicate Hezbollah completely, then?”
The group has suffered severe blows in the past few weeks, from the assassination of its leadership and the attacks involving booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members, to air strikes in Lebanon and Syria. While it attempts to rebuild, Israel has launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah's military capabilities and infrastructure.
Israel’s main goal is to create the best possible scenario for the return of more than 60,000 Israelis who fled have their homes in the north since October 8 last year, when Hezbollah began attacking Israel in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza. The Lebanese group’s action followed Hamas's attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and led to the war in Gaza, where health authorities have said more than 42,200 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire.
“There are fears in Lebanese circles that Israel's goal is to replicate in southern Lebanon the model it is currently applying in the northern Gaza Strip – completely isolating it from the rest of the territory and turning it into scorched, uninhabitable land,” another Lebanese official said.
Israel has already forcibly displaced and ravaged Lebanese border villages under the threat of bombardment, warning hundreds of thousands of residents not to go back any time soon “to homes or olive fields". "These are now dangerous combat zones”, the warning affirmed.
What is left of Resolution 1701?
Hezbollah has paid a high price since October 8 last year, one that seems equal to or even greater than what Hamas has endured in Gaza. The group's once seemingly invincible leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated, while Hamas's leader, Yahya Sinwar, remains alive in Gaza.
Despite the losses, Hezbollah has been able to launch missiles and drones at Israel, with the latest attack killing at least four soldiers at a base about 100km from the border. It has also managed to fight invading troops in southern Lebanese villages, slowing their advance.
Adnan Mansour, Lebanon’s former minister of foreign affairs, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying “to impose an Israeli fait accompli on Lebanon”.
“He wants to eliminate the resistance and expel it from the south. This would later allow Israel to launch attacks on the south at any time, knowing that no force would be able to confront it,” he told The National. “The battles will continue until Israel realises that its war of extermination will not achieve its objectives, and it must halt its aggression and comply with the UN resolution issued by the Security Council.”
Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, called for a complete end to hostilities and stipulated that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should be stationed between the Israeli border and the Litani River.
It also allows only the Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) to possess weapons and military equipment in the region, ensuring full sovereignty of the Lebanese state over its southern region.
The agreement offered substantial benefits for both. Lebanon, emerging from years of Syrian occupation, would seize the opportunity to reassert control over its territory while securing a UN commitment to address the issue of the occupied Shebaa Farms. Israel gained a safety buffer along its northern border as Hezbollah forces were to be pushed back to the Litani River, reducing immediate threats from the Iran-backed militia group.
The resolution was never fully enforced and Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to uphold the terms. Israeli planes continued breaching Lebanese airspace, while Hezbollah kept building up its capabilities along the border.
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati suggested last week that Hezbollah may abide by the UN resolution to withdraw militants north of the Litani River, as the government seeks a ceasefire with Israel following deadly attacks on Beirut. His statement came after Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem declared the group's support for a ceasefire with Israel, without linking it to a truce in Gaza as a precondition for the first time. That indicated a shift in its stance after significant setbacks.
“Is it too late?” asked a Lebanese parliamentary source as Israel, emboldened by its latest success against Hezbollah, appears determined to continue the war, which has so far killed more than 2,200 Lebanese and displaced more than 1.2 million.
On Tuesday, Mr Mikati said Lebanon received guarantees from the US that Israel will "de-escalate" air strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs. He added that the "Americans are serious about pressuring Israel" to reach a truce, but diplomatic efforts "have not yet reached the point of imposing a ceasefire".
A senior official close to the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah and the man leading political negotiations, said the “diplomatic movement is still in its early stages, but now there is a difference in priorities”.
“Lebanon is demanding a ceasefire as a principled demand and then all matters can be achieved, from the issue of electing a president to the issue of implementing Resolution 1701. The Americans are demanding the election of a president and then talk about a ceasefire," the source said. “Therefore, it seems the matters are now guided by the battles.”
In August, two Lebanese officials told The National that western mediators indirectly offered incentives to Hezbollah to stop its attacks against Israel and negotiate a ceasefire without linking it to a truce in Gaza. They also warned that the situation “might get out of control and expand” if the group's military actions continued.
Green light for Israel
Among the incentives hinted at, albeit unofficially, was a commitment to help address the issue of Lebanese banks detaining financial deposits and to assist in prosecuting people who managed to smuggle large amounts of money out of Lebanon. Help with political concessions was also suggested, including the presidential file.
Lebanon has been without a president for almost two years after Michel Aoun's mandate expired in October 2022. The deeply divided parliament has failed 12 times to elect a successor, with competing blocs backing two different candidates. The pro-Hezbollah faction supports Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, while their opponents support former minister Jihad Azour.
Axios reported this month that the White House wants to take advantage of Israel's massive blow to Hezbollah to push for an election of a new Lebanese president. CNN quoted US officials as saying that President Joe Biden’s administration has resigned itself to trying to shape and limit Israeli operations in Lebanon and against Iran rather than halting hostilities.
“There is a clear US green light for Israel to continue its attempts to eliminate or weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities,” a Lebanese political source close to Hezbollah told The National. “Bringing up the issue of electing a president only adds to the confusion in Lebanon’s internal political arena, while the US evades responsibility for the crimes committed by Israel through its air strikes on buildings and homes fully occupied by civilians in Beirut and other areas.”
In recent weeks, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon has been subjected to Israeli attacks, including the firing of shots at its headquarters in Naqoura and an incursion by Israeli troops at one of its posts on Sunday in what it called a “flagrant violation of international law”. Mr Netanyahu said the multinational force must leave its positions while the Israeli army fights against Hezbollah in Lebanese villages.
“Israel is trying to send a message to all parties that it is not satisfied with 1701, and its attacks on Unifil soldiers are confirmation that it does not trust the international force,” another Lebanese political source suggested.
The political source close to Hezbollah said: “It is no secret that Israel prefers the deployment of forces with broader powers: the authority to conduct raids, inspections and confiscate any weapons found in southern areas."
In 1982, Israel launched a large-scale invasion of Lebanon to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) from the south of the country. Israeli forces advanced rapidly, reaching Beirut. The operation escalated into a prolonged siege until the PLO leadership agreed to evacuate under international supervision, relocating to Tunisia.
While Israel withdrew from Beirut and other major areas in 1985, it continued to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, claiming a need to create a buffer against further attacks. It took until 2000 – nearly 18 years after the invasion – for Israel to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 425.
The resolution, initially passed in 1978 after an earlier incursion, called for Israel’s immediate withdrawal from all Lebanese territory. However, Israel's gradual departure only came after years of mounting Hezbollah attacks and growing public opposition to the occupation within Israel.
“Lebanon wants a ceasefire and an end to the war," Mr Mansour said. "It continues its diplomatic communication with friends and with many countries to find a political solution to the current crisis, but to what extent can Lebanon achieve this goal alone?
“We see the US going too far in its support for Israel politically, militarily, logistically and intelligence-wise. This is what makes the US part of this crisis and, so far, it has not used its influence. Therefore, the battles will continue, the war will continue, as long as there are those who object to a ceasefire.”
