Supply of crude is also expected to increase, rising by over 1m bpd in 2021, after declining by a record 6.6m bpd last year. Reuters
Supply of crude is also expected to increase, rising by over 1m bpd in 2021, after declining by a record 6.6m bpd last year. Reuters
Supply of crude is also expected to increase, rising by over 1m bpd in 2021, after declining by a record 6.6m bpd last year. Reuters
Supply of crude is also expected to increase, rising by over 1m bpd in 2021, after declining by a record 6.6m bpd last year. Reuters

Global oil demand is forecast to increase by 5.9 million bpd in 2021 amid economic recovery


Fareed Rahman
  • English
  • Arabic

Opec left its oil demand forecast for 2021 unchanged from last month’s assessment at 5.9 million barrels per day as global economies continue to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil consumption in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) region is estimated to increase by 2.6 million bpd year-on-year, while in non-OECD countries demand is set to grow by 3.3 million bpd.

The growth in demand in non-OECD countries will be driven by China, India and other Asian countries, according to the Opec monthly oil market report. Demand is also expected to be high in the US and other countries.

The non-Opec supply forecast also remains unchanged, with growth expected at 0.8 million barrels per day in 2021, according to the report.

“The upward revision in US supply offset the downward revision in the supply forecast for Russia. Market conditions have improved for US shale as oil prices have moved into a range where output is likely to recover at a higher-than-expected rate in the second half of 2021,” Opec said.

As a result, the US supply forecast was revised up to average just under 18 million bpd representing year-on-year growth of 400,000 barrels per day, according to the report. The main contributors to supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway.

The latest assessment from Opec came as the UAE's energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei on Wednesday cautioned US shale producers not to overproduce and flood the market amid higher oil prices.

"The producers need to be careful not to over flood the market," Mr Al Mazrouei told the Gulf Intelligence Global UAE Energy Forum 2021. "I think they are wise not to jump the gun and over produce during the recovery," he added.

Opec also expects the global economic recovery to “gain traction” towards the end of second quarter of 2021 as countries roll out vaccines to treat the coronavirus pandemic.

“Momentum is expected to be led by consumer spending, especially in the contact-intensive services sector, and particularly in the areas of travel, leisure and hospitality,” it said.

"The seasonal aspect of warm weather in the northern hemisphere and the travel season at that time will provide additional support factors.”

Opec+, the international coalition of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been taking action to prevent an oversupply in the market since 2016.

Last week, Saudi Arabia announced a surprise unilateral one million barrels per day production cut as a "goodwill gesture" that gave fellow producers Russia and Kazakhstan leeway to ease their production curbs to meet demand through the winter.

Brent, the global benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, dropped 1.2 per cent to $55.39 per barrel at 6.05pm UAE time. US crude gauge West Texas Intermediate also slid 0.76 per cent to $52.51 per barrel.

“Looking at the bigger picture, the $50 floor is not in danger as we see it, there are solid reasons for oil prices to remain healthy,” Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said. “Gains above that level though will be fluctuating based on infection numbers and demand signals.”

The biog

Favourite car: Ferrari

Likes the colour: Black

Best movie: Avatar

Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy

RACECARD

6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (PA) $50,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
6.35pm: Festival City Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic – Listed (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.45pm: Jumeirah Classic Trial – Conditions (TB) $150,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (D) 1,600m
8.55pm: Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Dubai Dash – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,000m

THE SPECS

      

 

Engine: 1.5-litre

 

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

 

Power: 110 horsepower 

 

Torque: 147Nm 

 

Price: From Dh59,700 

 

On sale: now  

 
Oppenheimer
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to invest in gold

Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.

A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.

Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”

Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”

Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”

By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.

You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.

You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.

Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

Company profile

Name: Thndr

Started: October 2020

Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: FinTech

Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000

Funding stage: series A; $20 million

Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC,  Rabacap and MSA Capital

ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

PRISCILLA
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Sustainable Development Goals

1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere

2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation

10. Reduce inequality  within and among countries

11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects

14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80

Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km

While you're here
Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
TOUR RESULTS AND FIXTURES

 

June 3: NZ Provincial Barbarians 7 Lions 13
June 7: Blues 22 Lions 16
June 10: Crusaders 3 Lions 12
June 13: Highlanders 23 Lions 22
June 17: Maori All Blacks 10 Lions 32
June 20: Chiefs 6 Lions 34
June 24: New Zealand 30 Lions 15
June 27: Hurricanes 31 Lions 31
July 1: New Zealand 21 Lions 24
July 8: New Zealand v Lions