Oil prices slumped on Friday as the news broke of US president Donald Trump’s positive coronavirus test. Conventional wisdom has it that his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, would be bad for the industry. But this stale view defies both history and reality.
As the details of the president’s positive test emerged on Friday morning, Brent crude fell below $40 per barrel to its lowest level since June. US jobs data was disappointing, a stimulus package is still deadlocked, Opec output has been on the rise, and second and third waves of the virus are sweeping through the US, Europe and the Middle East. Uncertainty over the US election has shaken stock markets and oil futures.
At least since the 1970s, the American petroleum industry has generally disliked Democrats. Most major producing states – Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, North Dakota – have been solidly Republican, though Texas has become more contestable as its economy has diversified. Harold Hamm, an Oklahoma oil-man who founded shale giant Continental, is one of Donald Trump’s close confidants.
Yet Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, probably the two presidents most loathed by oil barons, are also the two modern leaders who have been best for the US oil business.
As the Democratic senator from Louisiana, Bennett Johnston, said in the 1970s, “I see virtually none of the independent oil producers for Carter … we’ve gotten higher drilling rig counts, more dollars being spent, more activity, more profits being made by oil people than ever before. But do they like Carter? Oh no, they hate him because of his rhetoric.”
Michael Webber, professor of energy policy at the University of Texas in Austin, expressed a similar point about Mr Obama to Forbes in 2012: “They hate him, but he hasn’t done a thing to hurt them.”
In fact, Mr Obama presided over a historic boom: oil prices were mostly high, because of economic recovery, civil war in Libya and his sanctions on Iran. He did not create the US shale revolution, but he did not stop it either. In fact, crude oil production had bottomed out at about 5 million barrels per day when Mr Obama took office; it then soared to a record 9.6 million bpd by May 2015, before slipping back after oil prices tumbled.
His administration approved several US liquefied natural gas export facilities, despite opposition from environmentalists and complaints from industry that this would raise domestic prices. Though they imposed a moratorium on drilling in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico following the disastrous May 2010 Macondo blow-out, the world’s worst ever accidental oil spill, this was only in place for six months.
The American oil business has been nervous about Mr Biden and running mate Kamala Harris. Leaving aside the specifically climate-focussed elements, his energy plan promises no new leasing on public lands. He would no doubt reverse Donald Trump’s anti-regulation agenda, including restoring measures to prevent methane leakage from petroleum operations, and cutting the wasteful flaring of unwanted gas. He would not open new areas in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge or along the east coast for drilling – though last month, Mr Trump also halted plans to allow exploration offshore the key swing states of Florida and North Carolina. If Mr Biden’s policies do cut US output, that will drive up world oil and gas prices.
But in the medium term, Mr Biden’s impact on US oil depends on two much more consequential issues than policies on leasing or regulation. The first is what he would do on Iran. If he rejoins the joint nuclear deal and relaxes sanctions, some 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day of oil exports could return within a year to the market, and eventually up to 2.5 million bpd.
Given the complex domestic and international politics, and corporate uncertainty over sanctions implementation, it is unlikely Tehran would immediately return to world markets. But when it does, Opec+ would likely have to respond with further output cuts or risk its deal falling apart entirely. Prices would remain lower for longer, a challenge to struggling shale producers.
The second issue is even more important. There will be no sustainable recovery in any energy market until the coronavirus pandemic is contained and a solid economic revival is underway.
If Mr Biden can turn around America’s flailing healthcare response, if an effective vaccine becomes available, if stimulus and rebuilding plans pass, that will have the most positive effect on reviving energy demand in addition to prices and investment around the world. Mr Biden and his centrist constituency see jobs, trade and domestic manufacturing as important as the environment – in fact, all are increasingly inseparable.
In the long term, the question for the US petroleum business is whether it wants to become coal – a shrinking, failing industry dependent on legacy assets and handouts – or whether it can be part of a clean energy vision.
Mr Carter set the stage for both the shale and renewable energy booms, signing on tax breaks for early development of hydraulic fracturing, solar and wind power, and establishing the Department of Energy. Mr Obama’s post-financial crisis stimulus focussed heavily on clean energy, batteries, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. Under his administration, solar and wind power rose from 1 percent of US electricity to 9 per cent.
Now, some American oil firms, such as Occidental, are grappling with climate change, opening facilities to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Hydrogen, geothermal, biofuels, offshore renewable energy and electric vehicle charging are other big opportunities.
But too much of the US industry has put itself on the wrong side of the climate challenge, lobbying against modest regulations and undermining scientific findings.
With or without Washington, the EU and China, California and Wall Street, are going carbon-neutral. Instead of the reflexive hostility they levelled at Messrs Carter and Obama, oil business leaders would do better to build a constructive relationship.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
Price: Dh1,000,885
On sale: now
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Company profile
Company: Verity
Date started: May 2021
Founders: Kamal Al-Samarrai, Dina Shoman and Omar Al Sharif
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Size: four team members
Stage: Intially bootstrapped but recently closed its first pre-seed round of $800,000
Investors: Wamda, VentureSouq, Beyond Capital and regional angel investors
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
Blonde
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
'Jurassic%20World%20Dominion'
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RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D5pm%3A%20Deerfields%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Taajer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%20(jockey)%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20The%20Galleria%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Zafaranah%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Ifahat%20Du%20Loup%2C%20Abdul%20Aziz%20Al%20Balushi%2C%20Sulaiman%20Al%20Ghunaimi%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Mazyad%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Majalis%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Dalma%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Bassam%20Al%20Wathba%2C%20Bernardi%20Pinheiro%2C%20Majed%20Al%20Jahouri%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20World%20Trade%20Centre%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fawaareq%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jumanji: The Next Level
Director: Jake Kasdan
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Nick Jonas
Two out of five stars
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A