I have only ever casually watched the television series Star Trek, and I tend to be out of my depth when using science fiction to analyse real-world politics. But one of the most unforgettable scenes in the entire series is about the "Kobayashi Maru", a training simulation for cadets at a futuristic military academy in which, unbeknownst to them, the only outcome is mortal failure. It is, as the series describes, a "no-win scenario", and the sole purpose of the exercise is for the cadet to understand and accept inevitable failure and certain death, and to test their character under those circumstances.
What is the point of character, one might ask, in the face of certain death? What is the utility of virtue in the face of defeat?
According to the Starfleet Academy, it is to cultivate the kind of leaders who will put the principles of the system above their own lives. Though they may not survive, their example reinforces the supremacy of those ideals for those who come after them, and ensures the integrity of the system.
The real world is increasingly short of such leaders. It is becoming instead more common for leaders to follow the example of Star Trek's protagonist, James T Kirk, who famously refused to accept the no-win scenario. That sort of gumption worked out very well for Kirk, because he is the hero of a fictional series. In our world, it is breeding disaster.
Star Trek's James T Kirk refused to accept a no-win scenario, but that doesn't work out so well in real life. Getty Images
“We are going to start winning again,” Donald Trump declared in 2016 at the climax of his US presidential campaign. For too long, in Mr Trump’s mind, Americans had been losing at trade and losing at war.
The entire Trump presidency has been built, at least in its rhetoric, on this attitude of winning at all costs – both in terms of US policy and in terms of the President’s own career.
Earlier this week, in these pages, Hussein Ibish outlined a hypothetical progression of events that could transpire should Mr Trump refuse to accept defeat in the coming election. The early stages of that progression, Ibish argued, were in fact not so hypothetical. They are already in motion, with Mr Trump publicly undermining voters' trust in postal voting and heavily implying to reporters that the only way his challenger could win was through mass fraud.
Each of the visions of Joe Biden, left, and Donald Trump, to their own respective camps, are worth fighting hard for. AP Photo
Good losers are more crucial for the health of the system than good winners are
Scarier still is the prospect that Mr Trump's Republican party might back this position – in which case the US election result could, for the first time in recent history, result in a months-long legal dispute with no clear, constitutional way out and no obvious popular consensus on who should be president.
In a country where two candidates claim victory and refuse to back down, the most extreme scenario is two self-proclaimed presidents. That possibility would strike most Americans – myself included – as downright absurd, though it has happened elsewhere.
In addition to being an American citizen, I am also an Afghan one, and for 69 days this year my Afghan self was served by two presidents. In February, Afghanistan released the results from its election. Both candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, claimed victory. They held competing inaugurations on the same day and occupied separate presidential palaces next-door to one another.
This was not only farcical, but deadly. The Afghan government was meant to be preparing for direct talks with the Taliban to end the country’s two-decade civil war, and an epidemic of coronavirus was about to wash over the country like a brutal tidal wave. We will never really know how many deaths could have been prevented in the long term without that 69-day delay to the country’s new political chapter.
Most of all, however, the situation was marked by selfishness. Mr Ghani and Dr Abdullah both claimed to be refusing to accept a no-win scenario in the service of their higher political goals, though the exact differences between their visions for the country were remarkably unclear. In the end, the crisis was put to bed by the US intervening and pressuring Mr Ghani to award Dr Abdullah a job as head of the government's peace negotiation team in exchange for the latter conceding defeat. It's worth noting that the US similarly intervened in the previous Afghan election by contriving for Dr Abdullah the special position of "Chief Executive".
Mr Trump and his challenger Joe Biden have much more distinct visions for America than the rival Afghan leaders had for Afghanistan. And each of their visions, to their own respective camps, is worth fighting hard for. But like Afghanistan, the US also faces an overwhelming coronavirus crisis. It also faces a deteriorating domestic security situation as a culture war is played out on the streets. The greatest lesson from Afghanistan's 69 days of parallel government is that without a clear victor, no vision is realised and nothing is achieved. Or perhaps a better way to say it is that without a clear loser, nothing is achieved.
The US doesn’t have a “US” to force its rival parties to the table. There is no paternalistic superpower to create a “Chief Executive” position for Mr Trump or Mr Biden. No one is going to teach Americans the virtue of losing, that victory is a long game and that good losers are more crucial to the health of the system than good winners. The only way Americans will shape their country's ideals successfully is by learning to be losers all on their own.
Sulaiman Hakemy is deputy comment editor at The National
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
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In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
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Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
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Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory