A former British ambassador and leading UN terrorism monitor has raised serious concerns over the future of the US-Taliban peace deal due to the group’s continued “close ties” with Al Qaeda.
Edmund Fitton-Brown says research by the UN monitoring team reveals Al Qaeda still has a strong presence in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s failure to cut ties with the terror group poses future challenges to the continuation of the peace deal.
The fragile agreement has faced mounting challenges after the Taliban accused the US of breaching it following US air strikes on its fighters in Helmand province last week.
The US-Taliban agreement, signed in Doha, says foreign forces will leave Afghanistan in exchange for security guarantees and a pledge from the insurgents to sit down with the Afghan government to find a peaceful settlement to decades of war.
The Afghan War: in pictures
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Sergeant Jay Kenney, 26, with the 101st Airborne Division, Task Force Destiny, assists wounded Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers off the Blackhawk UH-60A helicopter after they were rescued in an air mission in Kandahar on December 12, 2010 in Kandahar province, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
An Afghan Northern Alliance fighter mans the front line against the Taliban on October 2, 2001 near Jabul os Sarache, 30 miles north of Kabul. Getty Images -
Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive of Afghanistan travelling via helicopter for the final campaign rally in Bamiyan, Afghanistan on September 25, 2019. Afghans will head to the polls on Saturday, September 28th. Getty Images -
Mustafa Tamanna, 10, son of Afghan reporter Zabihullah Tamanna, weeps during the funeral ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan on June 7, 2016. Tamanna was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by the Taliban. Getty Images -
Northern Alliance soldiers come back from the front line after a battle near Charatoy town in the north of Afghanistan on October 10, 2001. REUTERS -
A Northern Alliance fighter throwing rocks as part of a popular national game yards away from a multiple Grad missile launcher in October 12, 2001 in the Salang Gorge in Northern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
A French soldier from the 7th Mountain Regiment, part of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) stands on a boulder overlooking Kabul during a patrol August 3, 2002 in Afghanistan. The ISAF has been patrolling Kabul since January 2002, working with the government and a new police force to prevent the violence and lawlessness that threatened to engulf the city after a U.S.-led coalition forced the Taliban from power. Getty Images -
US Marine Sgt. Jerry Brown (L) of Jacksonville, North Carolina watches over a weapons cache found during a patrol near the American military compound at Kandahar Airport in January 16, 2002 in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The Marines recovered mortars, rockets, rocket-propelled grenades and artillery rounds discovered in various caches near the base while on the patrol. Getty Images) -
Members of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry patrol through poppy fields in the village of Markhanai in May 6, 2002 in the Tora Bora valley region of Afghanistan. Getty Images -
The United States and Britain on October 7, 2001 launched a first wave of air strikes against Afghanistan. President George W. Bush said the action heralded a "sustained, comprehensive and relentless" campaign against terrorism. REUTERS -
A young Afghan girl eats a piece of bread at the Chaman refugee camp on November 8, 2001 on the Pakistan border with Afghanistan. The UNHCR has estimated that since September 11, 2001 over 135,000 Afghans have crossed the border into Pakistan, adding to the already millions of refugees living in the country. Getty Images -
Afghan opposition Northern Alliance soldiers leap over a trench as they return from front line positions after battle near the town of Charatoy in the north of Afghanistan October 10, 2001. REUTERS -
An Afghan child peeks out from the doorway of his family's home as a US Army soldier from the 101st Airborne stands guard in the eastern Afghan village of Hesarak on July 16, 2002 during what the Army refers to as a 'sensitive site exploitation' mission or 'SSE'. Getty Images -
Fred Perry, a British Royal Engineer soldier, reads the book "Black Hawk Down" inside his tent after a day of work on January 29, 2002 at the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) barracks at the Kabul airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Afghan soldiers (L) speak to a local Afghan, while a medic in the U.S. Army's 1st Battalion, 36th Infantry Regiment, Charlie Company (R) monitors a soldier who has just survived a blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) while driving a vehicle during a mission near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay, on March 19, 2013 in Kandahar Province, Maiwand District, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Marines on a light armored vehicle prepare for patrol as an AH1W "Super Cobra" helicopter flies by on December 28, 2001 at the U.S. Marine Corps Base in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
A Norwegian ISAF (International Security Assistance Force)soldier from Recce Squadron 3 patrols on October 4, 2004 in Kabul, Afghanistan as election officials get ready for the Presidential elections. Getty Images -
Interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai (L) is greeted by a group of Afghan military officers on his arrival to Kandahar airbase on May 04, 2002 in Southern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Soldiers in the U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division wade though a creek to avoid buried insurgent bombs while on patrol October 16, 2010 in Zhari district west of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
British commandos descend from a mountain observation post overlooking the beginning of the Helmand River at the Kajaki hydroelectric dam on March 13, 2007 in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province. Getty Images -
101st Airbornes 1st Sgt. Kerry Black from Westmoreland, Tennessee uses an Afghan child's sling shot on February 6, 2002 as children crowd around him while he patrols on the outskirts of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Marine Cpl. Jonathan Eckert of Oak Lawn, IL attached to India Battery, 3rd Battalion, 12th Marine Regiment works his improvised explosive device (IED) sniffing dog Bee as they secure a compound during a patrol near Forward Operating Base (FOB) Zeebrugge on October 11, 2010 in Kajaki, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Afghan refugees walk across the border into Pakistan on October 11, 2001 as they leave Afghanistan at the Chaman crossing point on the 4th day of U.S.-led air strikes against the ruling Taliban and terrorist networks in the country. Getty Images -
Anti-Taliban Afghan fighters watch several explosions from U.S. bombings in the Tora Bora mountains in Afghanistan on December 16, 2001. -
British Marines run under fire from the Taliban during a morning operation on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images -
Afghan Army troops prepare to board a British chinook helicopter from their base at Shorabak on March 12, 2007 in Southern Helmand province, Afghanistan. Getty Images -
British Marine Joe Harvey from Stafford, England (R), watches as British forces come under fire by Taliban insurgents on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images -
U.S. Army 101st Airborne 3-187 "Bravo" company soliders pass through a corn field while conducting a sensitive site exploitation (SSE) mission July 23, 2002 near the town of Narizah in Southeastern Afghanistan. Getty Images -
Scouts from 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment (Airborne), pull overwatch during Operation Destined Strike while 2nd Platoon, Able Company searches a village below the Chowkay Valley in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on August 22, 2006. US Army
One of the criteria has been a commitment by the Taliban to prevent Al Qaeda from committing terror attacks.
During a webinar for the Counter Extremism Project on ‘The current threat landscape in Afghanistan,’ Mr Fitton-Brown said ties between the two organisations remain.
“Al Qaeda senior figures remain in Afghanistan as well as hundreds of armed operatives,” he said.
“Relations between the Taliban and Al Qaeda remain close, mainly due to a history of shared struggle, inter marriage and ideological kinship.
“The Taliban regularly consulted with Al Qaeda during the negotiations with the US and they offered informal guarantees that they would honour their historic ties with Al Qaeda.
“Al Qaeda has reacted positively in public to the agreement with the US with statements celebrating it as a victory for the Taliban’s cause and thus for global militancy.
“The challenge will be to secure the counter terrorism gains to which the Taliban has committed which will require them to prevent Al Qaeda from posing any international threat from Afghanistan.”
Talks between Taliban and Afghan government negotiators began last month in Doha, but the process has been slow, while violence continues.
Mr Fitton-Brown said the UN monitoring team will be putting pressure on the Taliban to uphold its side of the agreement.
“Of course, it is our overwhelming hope this [peace deal] will be successful but we also believe it is necessary to be very objective in our monitoring and assessment of the Taliban in order to ensure they feel the pressure, that perhaps is necessary, to ensure that they deliver on their part of the agreement,” he said.
He has highlighted other concerns posed by thousands of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) and ISIS in destabilising the situation.
The UN monitoring team’s latest data reveals there are more than 7,000 FTFs in Afghanistan.
“A large number of FTFs are broadly aligned with the Taliban and Al Qaeda,” Mr Fitton-Brown said.
“While the Taliban publicly insists there are no FTFs under their umbrella that denial of something which is a universally accepted fact is problematic because we are looking to the Taliban to take action on the basis of something that they continue to insist is untrue.
“Even if we assume a significant number of FTFs are lying low due to having private sympathies for ISIS we still have a large number firmly aligned with the Taliban and Al Qaeda and they have no invested interest in peace, rather the reverse.
“Even if they have no current plans to project an external terrorist threat, at the minimum, FTF extremists continue to benefit from the continuing security vacuum and black economy in Afghanistan and most of them have nowhere to go.”
He said, despite the dissemination of ISIS last November, there are still 2,200 ISIS members in Afghanistan who are “capable of mounting significant attacks” and the group could prey on FTFs as part of its attempts at a resurgence.
“The main risk of an ISIS resurgence in the context of the Afghan peace process may lie in its ability to present itself as a regenerated terror group in the country and thus attract new recruits and funding,” he added.
“It could pose a complex challenge.”
The US has pledged to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and this week said numbers will be cut to around 4,500 in the coming weeks.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump tweeted that all US troops should be "home by Christmas" – well before the May 2021 timetable agreed in Doha.
