France is bracing for a diplomatic clash with Israel, and its ally the US, when it establishes full recognition of Palestine at a UN summit co-chaired with Saudi Arabia in 10 days.
The stakes are high for both proponents of the move and its detractors. President Emmanuel Macron wants the recognition of Palestine by France to set the framework for a relaunch of peace negotiations. Saudi Arabia has lent its weight to bolster Palestine's sovereignty and role on the world stage.
“The intention of [Saudi Arabia's Mohammad bin Salman], as well as Mr Macron, is to move away from the logic of managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” an Elysee source said. The shared vision of the hosts is to implement “tangible, irreversible progress, within a timetable, enabling a return to the two-state solution“.
Retaliation threats
Behind the scenes, tensions are escalating. Israel's powerful far-right is determined that there can be no state for Palestinians after the October 7 attacks – a view shared by many within the current US administration.
In a recent conversation with Mr Macron's Middle East adviser, Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer directly threatened to annex the whole of area C of the West Bank. That is the equivalent of 60 per cent of what is supposed to one day become a Palestinian state. French media also reports that Israel may move to shut down France's historic consulate in Jerusalem.
In parallel, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has backed Israel's position by denying a visa to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to attend the September 22 conference. Legal experts say this contravenes US treaty commitments and the UN Charter principle of sovereign equality of states. One option under consideration is for Mr Abbas to participate by video conference.
The view in Paris is that Israeli anger matches France's diplomatic success. The UK, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Malta and Portugal have already announced they will follow France's lead. Negotiations are continuing with Singapore, Japan and South Korea.
Israel has argued that France's initiative is useless, because facts on the ground contradict the reality of a Palestinian state. French officials respond by asking if Israeli retaliation is then justified. There is also the unspoken hope in France that future Israeli elections will pave the way for a more moderate position.
The Elysee source said they had "heard a lot" about this recognition and criticism that it is unconditional and pointed out it was "based on a number of commitments". They believed that on that basis they have "finally achieved the goal of being able to create a collective impact".
These commitments include government reforms, alongside the organisation of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2026, as laid out in a letter sent on June 9 by Mr Abbas to Mr Macron, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and US President Donald Trump. The letter also calls for Hamas to be disarmed and its exclusion from the future governing of Gaza.
Government collapse
“US pressures are getting stronger, but Macron's gone too far to back track now,” said Olivier Da Lage of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris. “The US is unhappy with France taking the lead of the group of countries set to recognise Palestine. When Norway, Spain and Ireland did it last year, they appeared isolated. That's not the case with France now.”
The French plan is the only credible one on the table, diplomats say, dismissing leaked US administration plans to pay Palestinians to leave Gaza and build a tourism resort and technology hub. Instead, France is working with partners such as the UK on a “day after” plan that would entail an international stabilisation mission under UN supervision.
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has described these proposals as "empty words and illusions”. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Mr Macron of endangering French Jews, while others, such as Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli, have said Palestine is an imaginary state.
In a post on X on Monday, Mr Chikli mocked Mr Macron for political difficulties in France after the forced resignation of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou as the government collapsed.
Such attacks are unusually sharp for two allied nations, noted Hamza Hraoui, director of the Paris-based public affairs firm MGH Partners. “They're looking for his weak point,” Mr Hraoui told The National. “Macron's best defence is to keep the international momentum going. Saudi support for the conference is a game-changer in the region.”
With his second presidential term nearing its end, Mr Macron hopes that recognition of Palestine will become part of his foreign policy legacy – alongside France’s leading role among Europeans in hashing out security guarantees for Ukraine.
“Until he took the lead on Palestine, Macron had struggled to leave his mark on international diplomacy,” Mr Da Lage said, pointing at the President's failure to force Lebanese politicians to reform after the August 2020 port blast.
So far, much of the diplomatic sparring between France and Israel has occurred behind the scenes. Over the summer, El Al security agents in France told Israeli media they were struggling to renew their visas – a result, reportedly, of their intrusive security inspections on French diplomats flying to Israel.
For now, Mr Macron is holding back from adopting more punitive measures such as the recent decision of the Netherlands to work on banning trade with Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, or issuing a visa ban on Israeli extremist ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
But after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen endorsed such measures in her state of the union speech on Wednesday, there is an increasing likelihood that Paris may no longer view these options as taboo.
Ms von der Leyen, who announced that the Commission would suspend at least $37 million in funding for Israel, had long resisted taking measures against Israel. Israel still has strong allies in Europe, and this has blocked co-ordinated attempts at sanctions. The result is that a number of states, including France, are tempted by national measures as relations worsen.
