Dubai's economy will reap immediate benefits from a Covid-19 vaccine as confidence and travel demand rebounds, the head of its tourism department said.
The emirate, the commercial and financial hub of the Middle East, has already witnessed a surge in travel bookings for the next two months as some of its source markets open up and safety-conscious travellers choose it as a holiday destination, Helal Saeed Al Marri, director general of the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing, told the Cityscape Summit on Monday.
“I think it [the vaccine impact] is immediate,” Mr Al Marri said at the event, which took place at Dubai World Trade Centre.
It is still not known when a global inoculation programme will begin, but once that happens “it obviously improves confidence, we have seen that in the public markets”, he added.
Mr Al Marri’s comments came on the day when US biotechnology company Moderna said its Covid-19 vaccine was 94.5 per cent effective against the virus in its preliminary late-stage clinical trial. A vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and Russia's Sputnik V vaccine also both said last week that early trial results have recorded efficacy rates of more than 90 per cent.
Drug makers around the world are racing to bring a vaccine to market to help the world recover from the worst pandemic in more than a century. Covid-19 has infected more than 54 million people and killed over 1.32 million. The virus has tipped the global economy into its worst recession since the 1930s, severely disrupting the travel and tourism industry.
Travel demand is showing signs of an uneven recovery, as some markets are demonstrating resurgence even without a vaccine in place with the development of effective safety protocols that remove quarantine requirements.
In Dubai, which received close to 17 million visitors last year, the emirate’s response in handling the pandemic and maintaining safety standards is driving tourism's recovery, Mr Al Marri said.
“Safety is on top of the travellers' mind. We have seen that through booking and searches,” he said.
“The way Dubai has handled this pandemic and put peoples’ safety at the forefront of every decision … people are seeing that around the world and the reaction has been very, very positive.”
Dubai, from accounting for 10 to 20 per cent of global travel searches in May, has come up to almost at the same levels of searches seen last year in some markets.
“People are very eager to travel in the near future. We are seeing booking picking up for December and January very heavily,” he added.
An early decision to open the emirate to international tourists with safety protocols, and a surge in domestic tourism have both helped the sector, but overall numbers are still lower, he said.
“When you look at Dubai as a tourism destination, which last year received just under 17 million people, domestic tourism does not replace [international tourism].
“But there is a big difference between having no tourism [and] operating at a large negative cash flow versus domestic tourism moving the industry towards the breakeven point, which is the key.”
Domestic tourists have “softened the blow” and allowed tourism attractions and hospitality establishments to keep staff employed, he added.
“What I do expect to happen, especially 2021 being [the year of] Expo and all, is for travel to return and return strong.”
The emirate has also seen an uptick in different types of tourists, including applicants for a longer-term visa that allows visitors to work remotely for their companies while staying in the emirate, Mr Al Marri said.
“We have seen a very large interest in the new visa programmes – with tens of thousands registering interest – and this is due in part to the attractive environment of living in Dubai,” he said.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Fernandes pen 2') Tottenham Hotspur 6 (Ndombele 4', Son 7' & 37' Kane (30' & pen 79, Aurier 51')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
Penguin
Scoreline
Syria 1-1 Australia
Syria Al Somah 85'
Australia Kruse 40'
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How to get exposure to gold
Although you can buy gold easily on the Dubai markets, the problem with buying physical bars, coins or jewellery is that you then have storage, security and insurance issues.
A far easier option is to invest in a low-cost exchange traded fund (ETF) that invests in the precious metal instead, for example, ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) and iShares Physical Gold (SGLN) both track physical gold. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF invests directly in mining companies.
Alternatively, BlackRock Gold & General seeks to achieve long-term capital growth primarily through an actively managed portfolio of gold mining, commodity and precious-metal related shares. Its largest portfolio holdings include gold miners Newcrest Mining, Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines and the NewMont Goldcorp.
Brave investors could take on the added risk of buying individual gold mining stocks, many of which have performed wonderfully well lately.
London-listed Centamin is up more than 70 per cent in just three months, although in a sign of its volatility, it is down 5 per cent on two years ago. Trans-Siberian Gold, listed on London's alternative investment market (AIM) for small stocks, has seen its share price almost quadruple from 34p to 124p over the same period, but do not assume this kind of runaway growth can continue for long
However, buying individual equities like these is highly risky, as their share prices can crash just as quickly, which isn't what what you want from a supposedly safe haven.
The 15 players selected
Muzzamil Afridi, Rahman Gul, Rizwan Haider (Dezo Devils); Shahbaz Ahmed, Suneth Sampath (Glory Gladiators); Waqas Gohar, Jamshaid Butt, Shadab Ahamed (Ganga Fighters); Ali Abid, Ayaz Butt, Ghulam Farid, JD Mahesh Kumara (Hiranni Heros); Inam Faried, Mausif Khan, Ashok Kumar (Texas Titans
