In recent days, Iraq has stood out in the region for what it has not said.
Condemnations from around the world poured in this week over the latest unprovoked Iranian attacks on the UAE. Baghdad remained silent – offering no official denunciation. The contrast was stark in Erbil where Kurdistan Regional Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the region’s President Nechirvan Barzani issued a condemnation and reaffirmed support for the UAE.
Iraq does not speak with one voice when it comes to foreign policy, a byproduct of the dysfunction of its political system. For the Kurdistan Regional Government, Iran and its network of allied militias are an immediate security threat.
Erbil has carefully cultivated its ties to the UAE and the Gulf in search of political and security alignment in the region. Just days before the latest attack, President Nechirvan Barzani met President Sheikh Mohamed in Abu Dhabi to discuss regional developments.
In recent years, Iraq appeared to be reintegrating into the Arab fold after years of isolation following Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the conflict that followed the US invasion. Baghdad had begun rebuilding its bridges with Gulf states, particularly with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. But the Iran war has once again turned the tide and Baghdad has tried to avoid appearing to take a side, but as a consequence failed to condemn Iranian attacks on Arab countries.
But this is not just about condemnation, or the lack thereof, and diplomacy. This silence points to the enduring reality that Iraq’s foreign policy remains deeply constrained by its close ties to Iran, regardless of who’s in charge. The Iran war has caught Iraq amid a gruelling process of still forming a new government after holding elections in November last year.
Last week, businessman Ali Al Zaidi was nominated as prime minister in what seemed to be the Co-Ordination Framework’s last-minute option for a candidate, providing a way out of political paralysis and US pressure. Washington repeatedly warned Iraq against picking former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki for the role, again due to concerns over his ties with Iran.
US President Donald Trump welcomed Mr Al Zaidi’s nomination and has extended an invitation for him to visit Washington once he has formed a government. While the sidelining of Mr Al Maliki might seem like a concession to Washington, this wouldn’t be the first time Iraq has chosen a consensus candidate as a facade while the shadow government maintains its grip.
Despite not yet fully assuming his role, Mr Al Zaidi has taken several calls from world leaders since his designation. Among those was a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during which Mr Al Zaidi said Iraq was ready to mediate between Tehran and Washington.
In the post-2003 order, Iraq has walked a diplomatic tightrope, balancing its ties with both Tehran and Washington but has often found itself falling back on the Iranian side.
But the question is whether a state that refuses to rein in its Iran-aligned militia groups and fails to condemn attacks on a fellow Arab country can truly act as a neutral mediator.
Iraqi militia groups and Iran have carried out more than 600 attacks on US sites in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region since the start of the Iran war, according to the US Department of State. Despite a ceasefire, Iran continues to target Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdistan Region.
The region bore the brunt of the attacks, but Gulf states also said they believed some of the attacks on them had originated from Iraq. Militia groups part of the Iranian-aligned "Axis of Resistance" had made it clear that they are supporting Iran in this war and wider regional positioning.
The US has, of course, taken note of the militias' role. The leaders of the main militia groups – Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba, Harakat Ansar Allah Al Awfiya, Kataib Sayyid Al Shuhada and Kataib Hezbollah – each have a $10 million US bounty.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Al Zaidi will continue to be someone the US “backs very strongly”, as Mr Trump has said, or he'll end up being another side of the same coin.
In the meantime, a lack of comment on Iran’s attack on the UAE this week shows Iraq’s self-imposed isolation. From the Arab League to Canada, there was a loud message of condemnation, while Baghdad remained on the sidelines.
