Iraqi Prime Minister Designate Ali Al Zaidi arrived in the northern Kurdistan region on Saturday to gain the support of Kurdish leaders to complete his cabinet before a 30-day deadline.
Mr Al Zaidi was nominated by the Co-ordination Framework, the largest parliamentary bloc, as its consensus candidate for prime minister last week, ending months of political deadlock over who to choose for the position.
Now, he must win over the support of Iraq’s religious and ethnic groups to form his government within the constitutional deadline.
Officials and experts told The National that Mr Al Zaidi is expected to win the support of all Iraqi groups and can indeed form a cabinet.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has been pushing Baghdad for key demands, which have caused issues between the two sides for several years.
“The core issue between Kurdistan and Iraqi prime ministers has never been personal; it has always been about their agendas,” Noreldin Waisy, press secretary to KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, told The National.
Mr Waisy said they include “respect for Kurdish constitutional rights. The recognition of the Kurdistan Region’s constitutional status as a federal entity. Consistent and fair allocation of the Kurdistan Region’s budget by Baghdad and a comprehensive resolution to the issue of disputed territories.”
The Kurdish official said there has been a pattern with previous Iraqi prime ministers where they fail to deliver on what was agreed.
“Prime minister-designates often begin by adopting a soft tone, seeking Kurdish support. However, once they consolidate power, many walk back on their commitments. This has been a recurring pattern, including with outgoing prime minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani.”
However, Mr Waisy believes that Mr Al Zaidi will "most probably" win over the trust of the KRG.
Another senior Kurdish official told The National that Erbil will be "clear with Mr Al Zaidi that Mr Al Sudani has systematically stripped powers from the Kurdistan Region, and we want this reversed".
The official said the KRG wants to "end Mr Al Sudani's economic strangulation of the Kurdistan Region."
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad increased after the federal government implemented a new electronic customs system this year, allowing it to monitor imports and revenue, a step the KRG sees as undermining its autonomy and control over trade.
"He crossed known red lines with the ruling Kurdish Democratic Party, permanently damaging any credible shot at a second term and allowing his rivals to leverage the vacuum in relations with Erbil. His behaviour cost him a second term," said the official.
"Our relationship with the Americans helped too — we made it repeatedly clear that Mr Al Sudani was not an option," he said, in reference to when Mr Al Sudani was running for office.
A third Kurdish official told The National that Erbil's position remains clear. Iraq needs a government that protects the sovereignty of the country and acts in the interest of all Iraqis.
"Iraq’s stability depends on strengthening state institutions, respecting federalism, and ensuring that all communities feel represented and protected," he said.
"We believe that a stable and responsible government in Baghdad —one that respects the rights of the Kurdistan Region and works for the prosperity of all Iraqis — will benefit Iraq, the Kurdistan Region, and the wider region," he said.
Deal-making businessman
Mr Al Zaidi, a businessman with no experience in political office or government administration, built his name in the private and academic sectors.
"The people around him are saying that he is a businessman who knows how to make deals and who is now going to speak to the different political blocks and the different political heads to see how to best to structure his cabinet," Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London's Chatham House think tank, told The National.
"He doesn't have political experience, and has not worked in a government institution as such. It's the dealmaking experience that was being pushed by the Co-ordination Framework, to ensure that he will manage to satisfy all sides," he said.
Michael Knights, Iraq expert and head of research at Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm, told The National, that all evidence suggest that Mr Al Zaidi will be able to form a government within 30 days.
"I think he will get the support from the KDP. It was notable that the tone from Erbil changed from concern to support on the first day after Mr Al Zaidi's nomination. That suggests reassurance came from somewhere, likely the US," he said.
Mr Knights said that "anyone can fail until the last minute. But if Al Zaidi makes it to a vote, he's very likely to succeed in ratifying his government."
The Prime Minister designate so far has the support of the majority of politicians and their parties and may in fact form a cabinet soon, Sajad Jiyad, Iraq expert at the Century Foundation think tank, told The National.
"It may be quicker than expected because the parties will want to ensure most politicians are available to vote before the break for Hajj and the end of the legislative term for parliament," he said.
Mr Jiyad also believes that Mr Al Zaidi will be able to gain the support of Kurdish leaders during his visit.
