Iraq has exceeded a 15-day window to choose a new prime minister, deepening a political crisis fuelled by an open feud between caretaker PM Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and his predecessor, Nouri Al Maliki.
President Nizar Amedi has been pressing the Co-ordination Framework – the Shiite alliance of mainly Iran-backed political parties and militia groups that emerged as the largest bloc after November’s national vote – to submit a name.
The deadline is set by Article 76 of Iraq’s 2005 constitution, which requires the president to ask the nominee of the “largest parliamentary bloc” – the Co-ordination Framework – to form a government within 15 days of his own election. But the Co-ordination Framework is paralysed.
The bloc remains split between backing Mr Al Sudani for a second term and returning Mr Al Maliki to power, according to political sources. There is also disagreement over the mechanism for picking one of them, or finding a compromise candidate if neither man steps aside.
The impasse comes as the US applies economic and security pressure to find a nominee. The US has said it will not tolerate Iran-backed militia groups being empowered with posts in the new government.
The Framework failed to hold a meeting scheduled for Sunday night. Political leaders instead held side meetings to win support, according to sources. There was no official announcement from the Framework explaining why Sunday's meeting did not take place.
What does the constitution say about a missed deadline?
Article 76 is the cornerstone of the mechanism to appoint the prime minister and was designed to prevent a power vacuum, legal expert Ali Al Tamimi told The National.
Two questions dominate: how to count the 15 days, and what happens if the bloc fails to nominate anyone, Mr Al Tamimi said.
Counting the days and holidays
There have been suggestions that the 15 days could be counted differently due to official holidays, giving Iraq more time.
But Mr Al Tamimi cites a Federal Supreme Court ruling from 2009 on another issue, which established that official holidays are counted within any set period.
There is one exception: if the final day of a deadline falls on an official holiday, the deadline extends to the next working day. Therefore, holidays that fall within the period do not pause or add to it, he explained.
What if no candidate is submitted?
Article 76 says nothing on what happens if the largest bloc fails to act, Mr Al Tamimi said. However, he argues that the President, designated as “Protector of the Constitution” under Article 67, can ask the Federal Supreme Court to give its interpretation of Article 76.
The court’s decisions are final and binding on all authorities. “So the court’s interpretation would be the decisive word that draws the constitutional road map out of the deadlock,” he says.
Missing constitutional deadlines is not unprecedented in Iraq, as political parties negotiate power-sharing arrangements. The Iraqi parliament had missed the 30-day period by the time it elected President Amedi this month.
Is missing the deadline a breach?
Yes, but not necessarily a fatal one. Mr Al Tamimi said the right of the largest bloc to submit a candidate remains because the deadline is “regulatory, not definitive”.
“This period is organisational and not peremptory – exceeding it does not cause the right to lapse because it is not coupled with a penalty or punishment,” he says. “But the opinion of the Federal Court, if an interpretation of Article 76 is requested, is the arbiter.”
The political stakes
The Co-ordination Framework’s inability to unify around Mr Al Sudani or Mr Al Maliki has left the formation process frozen.
Framework leader Ammar Al Hakim said last week the bloc “has presented more than one personality and more than one candidate through more than one mechanism”, but conceded there is an “urgent need today to resolve the selection of the prime minister within the remaining constitutional period”. He warned Iraq’s parliamentary system “faces difficulty in decision-making and relies on understandings between blocs”.
The deadlock comes as Iraq has found itself caught in middle of the Iran war. Its oil exports have collapsed from around 3.5 million barrels per day to an estimated 300,000 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that public sector salaries may not be paid.
What comes next?
With the deadline missed, three paths are likely, according to sources.
Political deal: The Framework reaches a last-minute compromise on Mr Al Sudani, Mr Al Maliki, or a third figure. “This will depend on the internal or the external pressure,” one politician said.
The CF, which is made up of 12 Shiite political leaders, has not yet agreed on a voting mechanism – whether to consider only the majority inside it, or to expand it to their weight inside the parliament, he said.
Presidential referral: President Amedi asks the Federal Supreme Court to clarify whether he can bypass the CF and ask another bloc to choose a prime minister, or set a new deadline.
Prolonged caretaker government: Mr Al Sudani continues in a caretaker role while negotiations continue, risking further economic and security instability. “Although this suggestion was rejected earlier, Al Sudani's supporters started to talk about it recently," the politician added.
For now, constitutional timelines have given way to political brinkmanship. As Mr Al Tamimi notes, “constitutional deadlines are not just numbers, but guarantees for the stability of the political system”. Whether the Court is asked to step in may determine if Iraq avoids a deeper vacuum.
