Trump will favour two-state solution, says former Israeli prime minister

France hears calls to pressure Israel to end wars and actively endorse a peace plan for Gaza

Ehud Olmert and Nasser Al Qudwa at the Paris Peace Forum 2024. Photo: Capa / Paris Peace Forum

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US president-elect Donald Trump is expected to favour a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict despite the Israeli government's rejection of Palestinian statehood, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert told The National on Monday. “I think that if President Trump will be consistent with what he said when he was president … he is in favour of a solution of two states,” Mr Olmert said, speaking on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum, an annual gathering dedicated to international dialogue.

“That may not be necessarily in line with the expectations of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, but I think it will be very good for Israel, because I think that this is what we have to adopt,” he added. Mr Olmert, who has been fiercely critical of Mr Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza, has worked with former Palestinian foreign minister Nasser Al Qudwa to promote a peace initiative. It includes a proposed 4.4 per cent land swap between Israeli territory and the West Bank, allowing for the principle of the 1967 borders to be maintained.

Asked if Mr Trump's support for a Palestinian state may push Mr Netanyahu to step down, Mr Olmert, who has not talked to his successor in 12 years, said he was unsure. "I don't think that he will resign unless we force him – and I hope we will," Mr Olmert told The National.

Netanyahu will have 'no one to turn to'

Mr Netanyahu, who has been engulfed by numerous political scandals in Israel but has successfully clung to power, may be forced to reconsider his position on Palestinian statehood because he will not be able to pit US Republicans against Democrats when Mr Trump is in the White House, said Mr Olmert. "Netanyahu will have no one in America to come to assist him against the president," Mr Olmert said, speaking at a panel on the Israel-Gaza war.

US President Joe Biden's administration has failed to pressure Mr Netanyahu into ending the war in Gaza – something that could have been done as early as January, when Israel's military objectives against Hamas had already been achieved, Mr Olmert said. Israel's war in Gaza, which has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, has in recent months expanded to Lebanon, pushing the Middle East further towards all-out regional war.

War was unavoidable, said Mr Olmert, because of the "unforgettable and unforgivable" nature of the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on October 7 last year, in which roughly 1,200 people were killed.

'We are waiting for you'

Speaking alongside Mr Olmert and France's foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot, Mr Al Qudwa said that what is needed today is support from Western governments, including France, to pressure Israel into backing plans for peace. "The presence of the two of us, former prime minister Olmert and myself, is a testimony of the determination on both sides to do something," Mr Al Qudwa said.

"But frankly, Mr Minister, we are waiting for you, because France is in the middle, and the middle is good," he added, turning to Mr Barrot. France is attempting to strike a balance by both supporting Israel's right to self defence and Palestinian claims to statehood.

Yet this positioning has had little impact on the ground as hopes for a ceasefire fade. The EU has been too divided to use the commercial leverage it has as Israel's biggest trading partner to pressure the country's leadership to cease the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

In his response to Mr Al Qudwa, Mr Barrot cited sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank who have killed or harassed Palestinian civilians. France had already imposed sanctions against "28 violent settlers" and been instrumental in deciding sanctions at EU level, he said. The EU's sanctions regime had already been activated twice, and "might be activated a third time soon", he added.

Yet sanctions have also failed to curb such behaviour, which has been emboldened by far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, whose apparent support for starving Gaza's population of two million people has been condemned by the French government. Calls by EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell to sanction the two ministers have so far gone unheeded.

Speaking at a separate panel, Sciences Po professor and former Lebanese minister Ghassan Salameh said that neither the US nor the EU have been willing to significantly pressure Israel. "Therefore, we are faced with a situation where the war was allowed to fester and to expand," Mr Salameh said.

Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions between Israel and partners such as France are increasing. During a visit to the West Bank last Thursday, Mr Barrot cancelled his trip to a holy site under French administration in Jerusalem after two French gendarmes were briefly detained by Israeli security forces.

The incident was highlighted by Mr Al Qudwa. "This Israeli government is telling their people that they can do whatever they want," he said. "The West generally can tell the Israelis: 'We love you, we are committed to your security. We stand by your security, and will never change, we will never hesitate – but you cannot do whatever you want.'"

Mr Barrot, who has said he would summon the Israeli ambassador to France over the incident in Jerusalem, reaffirmed France's commitment to Israeli security but added that it was important to remind the Israeli government of its responsibilities. "It is no offence to the people of Israel or to the Jewish people more broadly, to express to the Israeli government that, in the interests of Israel and in the interests of Israeli security, international law needs to be respected," Mr Barrot said.