Ukraine allies seek weapons surge before Trump presidency begins

UK and France hold talks on how to bolster Kyiv's supplies as winter looms

French President Emmanuel Macron, right, and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer took time out to discuss the situation in Ukraine, before commemorating Armistice Day in Paris. AP

Ukraine’s allies plan to boost to the supply of weapons to the country before US President-elect Donald Trump formally returns to the White House in January, it has been disclosed.

Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey indicated that western powers aim to boost Ukraine’s armoury amid fears that funding for weapons could dry up under Mr Trump. He was won the US presidential election last week, having pledged during the campaign to end the war in “one day”.

Those concerns were heightened after reports that Mr Trump held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin after his election victory was confirmed. In the phone call, he is reported to have told Mr Putin to refrain from escalating the war and warned him about America’s sizeable military presence in Europe. It was also reported that Mr Trump expressed an interest in further conversations to find "the resolution of Ukraine's war soon".

Russia denied on Monday that such a phone call had taken place. "This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it's just false information," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "There was no conversation."

Mr Trump's known unpredictability means Ukraine supporters will scramble to get more weapons in place in the coming weeks. “Our job as the UK and other allies supporting Ukraine, is to step up our military aid, to put them in the strongest possible position over the months ahead,” Mr Healey told the BBC. He added that he had discussed the issue with his American counterpart and other allies.

Mr Healey later confirmed to parliament that he had discussed with the Pentagon how the two countries “can step up our support in the couple of months ahead”.

He also warned against any concessions to Mr Putin “because if large countries like Russia are able to redraw international boundaries by force, then that sends a signal that undermines the security of all nations”.

Ukraine also topped the agenda when UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Monday. They discussed “how best to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position going into the winter", Downing Street said in a statement.

At the Paris Peace Forum, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot cautioned against making assumptions about how Mr Trump would handle the Ukraine war, which began in February 2022.

"We have to give [the new Trump administration] time," Mr Barrot said, adding that France was ready to respond “with ambition, because we believe that we need to give Ukraine the means to push back” against Russian forces.

But he said any initiatives to end the conflict would have to ensure Ukraine determined the timetable and conditions for engaging negotiations. In the meantime, he added, western allies had to give Kyiv all necessary means to fight against Russia. The international community “has too much to lose if Russia gets away with a 'might is right' approach”, he said.

Arms surge

While Mr Trump's victory is set to have a major bearing on the conflict, there might be an opportunity for the UK to persuade the US to allow Ukraine to fire British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russia. President Joe Biden has been reluctant to allow that course of action during his term.

Mr Healey refused to be drawn on the issue over operational security issues, yet it is something that is also likely to be discussed by leaders in Paris, because the missiles require US guidance data to work effectively. The US, which has given about $175 billion to Ukraine since 2022, has $6 billion in remaining military aid it will now transfer to the country quickly.

There have also been reports that the Pentagon is speeding up the delivery of 500 missile interceptors, most for the Patriot defence system, after indications that Russia is retaining a stockpile of weapons for an immense barrage on Ukraine’s cities and power stations in the winter.

Deep strike on Russia

It now remains a question of whether Britain and France can move enough of the weapons into Ukraine, with Kyiv awaiting permission to fire them into Russia. If that plan is approved and major industrial or military sites are hit, it could act as a significant deterrent on Mr Putin.

“Essentially President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy needs to get a massive influx of Storm Shadow, Taurus and other weaponry to allow Ukraine to get into a decent military position in the time left before Donald Trump takes over the presidency,” said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army officer. He criticised the UK government for failing to provide sufficient arms to Ukraine and said it was essential for Britain to “step up” its supply.

But defence expert Sam Cranny-Evans warned that it would be challenging for the country “to deliver enough munitions to make a difference to the war”, although that could change if France and the US also increase their arms supplies.

Granting permission for strikes deep into Russia would “be very useful to Ukraine”, he added. Hitting ammunition depots and supply bases, as well as maintenance sites, would be “tactically beneficial and could help stabilise the front line”.

He warned that if US funding was halted, this would make Ukraine almost entirely reliant on Europe and its own defence industry to prevent Russia taking control of more territory, which could have a significant effect on the battlefield.

Battlefield dynamics

On Sunday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the White House aimed "to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield, so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table". Any quick peace deal in Ukraine is expected to require Kyiv to cede some of the southern and eastern territory it has lost to Russia.

A former adviser to Mr Trump, Bryan Lanza, told the BBC on Saturday that Ukraine had to give up any ambition of regaining Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014. Kyiv has steadfastly opposed giving up territory and its European allies are known to be nervous about unilateral moves by Mr Trump.

Mr Zelenskyy has said that giving up land or meeting other Russian demands would only embolden Moscow and provoke more aggression. In recent months, Ukraine and Russia have made moves regarded as possible efforts to increase their influence in future negotiations, with Ukraine seizing Russian territory and Moscow's troops making advances in Ukraine.