Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip
President Donald Trump upended more than a decade of US foreign policy on Syria when he said he would lift sanctions against Damascus, a game-changing move that dramatically alters the nation's economic and diplomatic position.
The Trump administration had until now insisted that any sanctions relief would be determined by the pace of reforms in Syria, after the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham rebel group overthrew the regime of Bashar Al Assad in December.
But Mr Trump cast that deliberative process aside as he visited Saudi Arabia, saying he would lift all sanctions at the request of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and that it is now Syria's “time to shine”.
“Oh, what I do for the Crown Prince,” Mr Trump said at Tuesday's US-Saudi Investment Forum, where delegates loudly applauded his announcement.
He also said he made the decision after discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has pushed for the sanctions to be lifted.
Further underscoring Mr Trump's new approach, he said he planned to meet Syrian leader Ahmad Al Shara in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. The meeting is especially remarkable given that Mr Al Shara remains the member of a US-designated terrorist organisation because of past ties to Al Qaeda.
The White House and State Department provided no time for when sanctions would be lifted. The US has a complex mix of sanctions, terrorist designations and export controls against Syria aimed at choking off its banking, export and other sectors during the country's civil war, although some of the oldest measures predate the outbreak of violence in 2011.
Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, predicted there would be some quick sanction cuts, allowing for an infusion of cash and investments, most likely from Gulf states.
“There still remains a lot of questions, even if Trump made this declarative statement,” Mr Zelin told The National.
He described the developments as a “net positive” for Syria, in a sentiment echoed widely. Syrians took to the streets and celebrated into the night in Damascus and elsewhere after Mr Trump's announcement.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Mr Trump's “bold move represents another step on Syria's path towards recovery and stability".
The Syrian Emergency Task Force, which works to help build democracy in Syria, said it had played a significant role in nudging the Trump administration to scrap the sanctions, including meeting Mr Al Shara for more than three hours to discuss the importance of a Syria-US partnership.
“With this announcement, there is hope,” Mouaz Moustafa, the SETF's executive director, told The National.
He said the most crucial first move would be to lift sanctions on Syria's central bank and waive the Caesar Act, a set of measures imposed by the US Congress during the Assad era.
That relief “would allow for a huge amount of both reconstruction and humanitarian efforts inside the country, and would save the Syrian economy from the eventual collapse that they were doing", Mr Moustafa said.
Sanctions relief will also make it much easier for humanitarian and aid groups to work in Syria.
“What Trump has done is actually saved Syria, and in a way, saved the whole Middle East, by keeping this key, geopolitically very important country together,” Mr Moustafa said.
The UN, which has pushed for sanctions relief on Syria, said the move was "important".
It will “help the reconstruction of Syria [and] help the Syrian people recover from more than a decade of conflict, a decade of underinvestment,” UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.
The announcement also marks a major personal win for Mr Al Shara, who has been unable to keep all of Syria under government control, including during sectarian attacks against civilians from the Alawite minority in the north-west.
Critics accused a transactional Mr Trump of being lured into making concessions to Syria by a reported offer for him to build a massive Trump Tower in Damascus. That comes after criticism over his willingness to accept a $400 million “gift” from Qatar – a Boeing 747 that would be used as Air Force One.
“It wouldn't be surprising that the Syrian government recognises how to deal with Trump,” Mr Zelin said. “Whether that's something that American citizens want … is another matter.”
Mr Trump's announcement also will lead to changes in Syria's relationships with its neighbours. Israel appears to have been cut out of the decision and has retreated on some of its rhetoric against Mr Al Shara's administration.
“We might see a different tack [from Israel],” Mr Zelin predicted. “It could also lead to broader negotiations related to initially a non-aggression pact and then something that then is negotiated eventually related to potentially joining the Abraham Accords or their own specific peace agreement.”
Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Mr Trump has shown that he is willing to seek regional deals and consensus without including Israel.
In what some commentators are portraying as a snub to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr Trump is not scheduled to visit Israel after his Gulf tour ends on Friday.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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