The US’s arsenal of missiles and bombs could be severely affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, denying its arms factories a vital ingredient as it seeks to restock its weapons, The National can disclose.
Gulf states are responsible for up to 46 per cent of global urea exports, but the Iran war has severely curtailed supplies of the important stabiliser for explosives.
According to a confidential market briefing document seen by The National, an estimated 22 million tonnes per year of urea supply – around one tenth of annual production – is considered at risk following the US and Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran, with prices also surging by 50 per cent.
The interruption of gas flows across the eastern Mediterranean has also exacerbated delays in supply. Israel’s suspension of gas supplies to Egypt halted Cairo's urea production, removing a vital alternative source just as Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
As the product's prime use is as fertiliser, shortages of it could also provoke infighting between the Pentagon and the Department of Agriculture if the Arabian Gulf bottleneck is not resolved. It could also lead to a further decline in relations with Europe if the US attempts to undercut the continent’s supply from Algeria and Egypt, experts have said.
Big in bombs
While urea is best known as a nitrogen-rich agricultural fertiliser, it also plays a critical but less well-known role in defence manufacturing, ensuring that munitions remain safe and reliable across a range of temperatures and storage conditions.
“Urea is an important stabilising product in both propellants and explosive formulations,” said Maj Robert Campbell, a retired Royal Engineers explosive ordnance disposal expert. “You’ll find it in everything from artillery shells to missile systems, and without it, performance and shelf life become much harder to guarantee.”
That dependence means that a supply squeeze could affect the US defence industrial base at an important moment. After nearly six weeks of sustained bombardment of Iran, American stockpiles of vital munitions have been depleted. It has expended 45 per cent of its Precision Strike Missiles and half its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) and Patriot missile interceptors.
Other systems such as the Himars medium-range missiles rely on solid rocket boosters whose propellants must remain stable under varying conditions, which Urea provides. Similarly, air-to-air missiles, precision-guided bombs and artillery rounds largely depend on the chemical in their production chains.
American arms manufacturers, including Ensign-Bickford, produce a lot of the explosives and components that require urea. Retooling these processes, said Maj Campbell, who was decorated for bomb disposal in Afghanistan, is theoretically possible, but is far from straightforward and can have unforeseen results.
“There are alternatives,” he said. “You can change the explosive type or the formulation and you’ll still get something that goes bang. But if you’ve already tooled your production line around a specific chemistry, switching quickly is extremely difficult. And if you do switch, you’re changing the weapon’s effects, which can have unintended consequences.”
Going Winchester
Given the US expenditure on weapons – it fired more than 4,000 of what are called its “seven critical munitions”, air defence and precision strike missiles – there are deep concerns that it will not be able to fully restock to prewar levels for four years.
“Concern about the status of US munitions inventories has intensified as reports emerge about high expenditures of Tomahawks, Patriots and other missiles in the Iran war,” the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said in a report.
It added that a stocktake was needed to examine whether the US military was “near the point of ‘going Winchester’”, a military term for running out of ammunition.
With shortages of vital missile components – potentially including urea – that risk “will persist for many years” and “lies in future wars”, it said.
“Rebuilding to prewar levels for the seven critical munitions will take from one to four years,” it stated. “Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute.”
Urea at risk
Urea is made industrially from ammonia and carbon dioxide, and the Gulf states' ability to cheaply produce natural gas makes them major exporters.
Globally, about 195 tonnes are produced each year, from the Middle East to China, India and Russia. But according to a report by Rabobank, a multinational financial services company, the current crisis could have a much broader impact. “When factoring in a regional dynamic, the ‘at risk’ volumes look closer to 44 per cent of global urea exports,” it said.
Prices are expected to rise considerably, and “affordability is likely to deteriorate further”, especially if there is a military demand. The Strait of Hormuz closure was “disrupting global fertiliser markets, raising prices and tightening supply across global agriculture”, the report added.
Fighters v farmers
The Pentagon now faces stiff competition for urea from the agricultural sector as farmers rely heavily on the compound to boost crop yields. The US Department of Agriculture wields considerable political influence.
“There are two powerful lobbies now competing for the same constrained resource: defence and agriculture,” Maj Campbell said. “At some point, one of them will have to give.”
Given that Mr Trump’s relations with European Nato powers are at their nadir following the Iran war, the alliance could further sour if US buyers turn aggressively to markets in Algeria and Egypt and drive up prices while pushing out other customers.
“If the US starts pursuing urea at scale, it will have a knock-on effect globally,” Maj Campbell said. “They will outbid others if necessary, and that could disrupt European supply chains, and Europe is already supplying a significant volume of weapons to Ukraine.”
However, US officials may have anticipated some disruption and stockpiled some urea as part of contingency planning. But there are concerns that if the strait remains closed for another three or four months, it would have a severe impact on both the US arms and agriculture industry, potentially forcing Mr Trump to compromise on an Iran peace deal.
