Eight weeks into the Iran war and with the global economy on a knife-edge, the end game to the conflict has yet to play out. But what is clear is that, in military terms, it has not matched preconceptions.
Iran was meant to have been cowed by the combined military might of America and Israel, but instead it has strangled the world’s energy, even after being struck by 13,000 projectiles. Its military has so far survived against the world’s most powerful air force, driven by AI-driven precision targeting that can carry out 1,000 strikes a day.
Iran has hit back with its own precision targeting, hitting expensive US aircraft from a distance while demonstrating it can delegate launch authority to junior ranks.
The lesson for Israel is that “decapitation strikes” might be spectacular, but they do not win wars.
Israel will also be aware that, despite its destructive operations in Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah still has the ability to hit back. Ultimately, the regional conflict might show that air power has limits, while diplomacy does not.
Low-tech Tehran
Losing much of its navy and air force, alongside its senior leadership, in the first hours of a war would normally prove catastrophic for a nation. But Iran has been "far more robust and resilient than anybody thought", said former military intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher. “Nobody understood just how deeply the Iranians could bury their ballistic missile assembly that is immensely survivable.”
Iran has been able to fire ballistic missiles and Shahed-136 drones at a steady rate at Gulf states and US bases, while ensuring the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is estimated that Iran fired 1,800 ballistic missiles and 4,450 Shahed-136 drones at its Gulf neighbours and Israel. US and Israeli strikes destroyed about 60 per cent of its 470 missile launchers and much of its manufacturing capability, but Israeli intelligence believes Tehran could have between 700 and 1,000 missiles left, in addition to an estimated stockpile of 75,000 Shahed drones.
The bombing campaign it endured caused the country to lose 130 combat and support vessels from a fleet of 145 warships, alongside 36 aircraft from an antiquated operational force of 110.
Despite that toll, Iran has been able to retain a fleet of dhows capable of surreptitiously laying mines in the strait. It also retains speed boats that could easily be fitted with explosives to swarm warships.
It has developed what militaries call “mission command”, in which lower ranks can take decisions independent of senior officers to achieve objectives. “The Iranians are now confident in their ability to push target lists and firing decisions to the lowest possible level,” Dr Nusbacher said.
Economic war
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said that, while Iran was “militarily in a far weaker position than it was" before the war began on February 28, the manner in which it was able to use offensive weapons so quickly “may have come as a surprise, because the expectation was there would be chaos”.
She argued that Tehran's most successful strategy was “shifting the battlefield from the ground in Iran to economic warfare in the Strait of Hormuz”. She described that switch as a "major win”.
Iran retains a drone and missile force, meaning it has the "two key capabilities that have enabled it to fight the US to a standstill in this war and to continue to threaten its neighbours”, Dr Nusbacher said.
Gen Richard Barrons, former commander of UK military operations, agreed with that point. “America has battered the ballistic missiles and drone system but they’ve not obliterated them," he added. "They’re also not going to be able to obliterate Iran’s asymmetric capability of hundreds of speed boats with bombs in the front or low-end drones and anti-ship missiles.”
Miri Eisin, of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Tel Aviv, suggested that all sides in the conflict were caught up in their own “hubris” of believing they had won, But she said the survival of the Tehran regime “is what I would call an absolute victory”.
Another curious point that analysts have noted – and that could yet play a part in Iran’s future – is that its regular army appears to have been left alone. That plays into the theory that Washington wants it intact to take on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Depleted US forces
The physical toll on the US military has been 13 personnel killed and 365 injured, while 46 aircraft have been damaged or destroyed. “This was a very expensive war because the Americans and the Israelis were both lavishly expending munitions in order to achieve maximum effect in the minimum possible time,” Dr Nusbacher said.
Despite those losses, the war has demonstrated the formidable firepower that America can bring to bear. Much of this has been the fusion between intense surveillance capabilities and the mass targeting capabilities presented by AI, Gen Barrons said.
“The US Air Force has shown a digital kill web in action in how you service 1,000 targets a day, fusing them into a database managed by AI to identify targets, then prioritise and allocate them to missiles and aircraft," he said.
He added that it reinforced the lesson to those “who either didn't know them or chose to ignore them” about the “limits of air power to do regime change”. The idea of a “quick and easy win” in Iran has evaporated alongside the initial objective of regime change.
Experts also point to the lack of US preparation in defending their airfields, especially with counter-drone equipment and the ability to deflect Iran attacks.
“The takeaway that I'm hearing from American officials is that there could have been more lessons learnt from the battlefield in Ukraine with respect to drone warfare,” Dr Ozcelik said. “The absence of sufficient, cheap counter-drone technologies has also been very tangible.”
Israel's two fronts
In addition to waging war with Iran, Israel has resumed its attacks on Lebanon. Hezbollah was hit hard by the 2024 Israeli conflict and the Lebanese group has been further weakened since joining the Iran war, Dr Ozcelik said.
“Militarily it is far weaker than maybe even is appreciated at the moment,” she added. “This latest round of Israeli strikes and the ground operations in the south, in particular the dismantling of tunnel networks, has been notable”.
While the group retains a portion of its previous arsenal, it will face “a long, very challenging path to recovery”, she said. But Dr Nusbacher said Hezbollah was "still shooting” and questioned Israel’s abilities to fully suppress the militia. “Hezbollah is a well-designed, resilient organisation and in this it resembles the Iranian government," she said. "The Israelis were not able to silence their attacks.”
She warned too that it could be rearmed with missiles by Iran. “Therefore, [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu is heading towards the October election having failed to stop both Iran and Hezbollah from attacking Israel,” she added.
Israeli overreach
Israel has not lost military personnel or aircraft, apart from a handful of combat drones, and managed to become what experts call a “peer partner” to the US Air Force. “Their operational capability matched the Americans and that's no small thing,” Ms Eisin said.
Israel has also demonstrated an “absolutely stunning tempo of operations”. That is something the US struggled to keep up with, Dr Nusbacher said.
However, she criticised Israel's “touching faith in the idea of winning a war by decapitating an enemy” and suggested it was “magical thinking to suggest that they can achieve strategic effect by killing the right person or blowing up the right thing”.
While Israel has proven an ability to co-ordinate with the US as they wage war, Dr Ozcelik said that, ultimately, its campaign failed against Iran.
Additional reporting by Fadah Jassem
