Egypt's push for Lebanon to uphold "red lines" in negotiations with Israel reflects the country's growing concern over Israel’s expansionist ambitions in the Middle East, say analysts, as direct talks resume in Washington on Thursday.
For two and a half years, Egypt has watched with growing concern what it sees as Israel’s strategy to expand its influence through military force across the region, from Gaza to Syria, and even as far as Iran, while pushing Lebanon into an impossible situation.
Across those arenas, Egypt, whose relations with Israel have been strained since the Hamas-led attack on Israel in 2023 and Israel's subsequent two-year war on Gaza, has maintained a steady presence. It has helped shape Gaza's ceasefire deal, consulted with the new regime in Damascus, and played a mediating role between Iran and the US, alongside Pakistan and others.
Its latest move is an attempt to assert a larger role in the Lebanon negotiations.
Sources in Cairo, as well as analysts, say despite its surprise at Lebanon's decision to move ahead with direct talks with Israel, Egypt has been quietly advising on red lines that should not be crossed.
Cairo’s approach is to support the Lebanese state against both Israeli pressure and internal factions, while also positioning itself to counter, or pre-empt, any Israeli effort to impose a regional reality aligned with its extremist policies.
“Egypt's deep interest in Lebanon is not a matter of diplomatic niceties,” said Nael Shama, a political scholar with an interest in Middle East politics.
“It is not just playing a superficial role,” he told The National. “There’s an involvement across state institutions, which signals it has serious and broad interests.” Cairo, he explained, had stepped up to support and engage with Lebanon before, but “not at this level”.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty travelled to Beirut on March 26, his fifth trip to the Lebanese capital in two years. He oversaw the delivery of 1,000 tonnes of aid and reaffirmed Cairo’s support for Lebanon amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.
During his visit, Mr Abdelatty met President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri to assure them of Egypt’s support, which often involves training and equipment for the army, as well as its diplomatic work to prevent escalation.
He also conveyed Egypt's backing for the Lebanese government’s push to extend its authority across the entire country and bring all weapons under state control.
Red lines
High-level contacts between Beirut and Cairo continued after the trip, with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Mr Aoun, both former army chiefs, holding talks on the telephone on April 18, following the announcement of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, pausing more than six weeks of devastating Israeli strikes across the beleaguered country, as well as missile attacks by Hezbollah.
The call came four days after Israel and Lebanon moved to direct negotiations in Washington in a bid to end hostilities and consider a long-term truce.
Sources in Cairo close to Lebanon's file said Egypt conveyed to the Lebanese government its “disappointment and surprise” over Beirut's decision to hold direct negotiations with Israel without giving it notice or seeking its counsel, given Egypt's experience after decades of negotiations with the Israelis.
It was also reported that other regional countries were seeking clarification over Lebanon’s objectives in the talks. The Arab Peace Initiative, adopted by an Arab League summit held in Beirut in 2002, stipulates that any establishment of relations with Israel, which is unlikely to be a goal of the current discussions, should take place within a collective Arab framework.
Despite that, Cairo subsequently counselled the Lebanese government on “red lines” negotiators should not allow Israel to cross, the sources said. “Egypt explained to the Lebanese that giving too many concessions to Israel will be a mistake,” one said.
Egyptian officials mainly singled out maritime and border demarcations as areas where there should be no concessions.
“Egypt has decades of experience in negotiating with the Israelis and of helping the Palestinian factions when they negotiated with Israel, helping them with expertise and skill,” Mr Shama told The National. “So I think that Egypt might be trying to give this expertise to the Lebanese government as it pursues negotiations with Israel.
“In general, Egypt has an interest in supporting states and institutions, and in curbing the influence of non-state actors, especially militant non-state actors such as Hezbollah. So I think this is also why it looks at these negotiations with interest,” Mr Shama added.
Expanding influence
The sources in Cairo warned that reaching a deal with Israel that compromises Lebanon's sovereignty could trigger civil strife, especially with Hezbollah rejecting calls to disarm itself and opposing the talks. They also warned that Israel intended to bar the Lebanese army from a self-declared security zone it wants to create in southern Lebanon that would mirror the “yellow line” it established in Gaza after the October ceasefire.
The US-brokered ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel that came into effect on April 16 does not stipulate Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
This week, the Israeli army published a map showing a line cutting across 21 villages in southern Lebanon, creating what Israel is calling its security zone.
The map brings under Israeli control dozens of villages stretching to about 10km inside southern Lebanon, where residents have been banned from returning and where Israel continues to demolish residential homes and infrastructure.
Lebanon has also been a talking point between Cairo and Washington, with Mr Abdelatty calling for an end to Israeli attacks across the country in his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the US capital on April 14. His visit coincided with the talks between Lebanon and Israel at the US State Department.
The US is set to host the next round of ambassador-level negotiations on a permanent ceasefire on Thursday.
For Mr Shama, Egypt’s de-escalation efforts in Lebanon and the broader region “may be tied to growing concerns over expanding Israeli influence”, but are also linked to its wider economic and geopolitical anxieties.
“There's a deep Egyptian conviction that a regional war and tensions deal a severe blow to Egypt's economy,” he said. “We've already seen this with the Egyptian currency losing more than 10 per cent of its value because of the repercussions of the conflict.
“The second thing is that Egypt uses this role as leverage. So it's important for a regional power to always remain engaged and to always show the world that it has influence, that it can contribute positively to regional security.”
For Lebanon, Egypt's involvement is a “positive development”, Karim Bitar, lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris, told The National.
“Egypt is trying to support stability, unity and prevent state collapse in Lebanon,” he said, as the war-torn country finds itself in a difficult position.
“It is rather reassuring to see countries that realise the risk of fragmentation and that try to support the Lebanese institutions and defend Lebanon's unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity at a time when they are particularly at risk,” he added.
