The word “historic” was bandied around quite a bit at the end of last week – and perhaps rightly so. The reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas marks the most significant step yet towards ending the split in the Palestinian liberation movement.
Its timing is equally significant. As the John Kerry-sponsored peace talks appear to be taking their dying breath, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas knows that if this was not the last chance for peace with Israel, at 80, it was almost certainly his own. In the hours leading up to the announcement, senior figures in Israel warned Mr Abbas that if the Palestinian Authority brings Hamas back into the fold, the talks were over. In reality, any hope of the talks bringing new breakthroughs died weeks ago.
Now, barring a miracle, tomorrow's deadline will expire, and the Israelis could potentially be faced with a united Palestinian opposition with nothing to lose. Mr Abbas could take Palestine's statehood bid to the UN. He could even hand over security of the West Bank to the Israelis, as he threatened to do.
If the deal between Hamas and Fatah succeeds then it puts Israel in a difficult position. Can it justify its continued blockade of Gaza if the strip is controlled by a unity government? What of the West Bank if Hamas wins seats in the election?
We cannot forget, however, that the division between Hamas and Fatah runs deep, and that the agreement in Gaza poses as many questions as it answers. Critics point out that reconciliation talks always tend to arise when both Fatah and Hamas are facing domestic difficulties, and when the dust settles the agreement will be quietly forgotten.
Even given the diplomatic efforts of recent weeks, the fact remains that Hamas rallies are all but forbidden in the West Bank and there have been numerous reports of Hamas supporters being arrested and jailed.
Hamas may be popular in cities such as Hebron, Nablus and Jenin, but it is an affiliation that most keep to themselves – how quickly this situation changes will be critical in judging whether this latest agreement holds.
Analysts also raise the issue of external players and their reactions to a coalition government potentially made up of not only Fatah and Hamas but extreme Palestinian groups.
While the EU has shown more readiness to accept some degree of involvement of Hamas in a future Palestinian government, they say, it is difficult to see the US following suit.
And then there is Egypt, whose dislike of Hamas is equal if not even more vehement than Israel’s. Would they be willing to deal with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas? It is unlikely.
Finally, there are the elections. It is unthinkable that in a free and fair poll in the West Bank, Hamas would not garner significant support, especially given rising unemployment and a growing malaise with the Palestinian Authority. Equally, rising anger in Gaza could potentially see Hamas lose control altogether.
Would either party be willing to give up on government? It is doubtful.
But whatever the outcome, it is impossible not to feel positive about the tentative steps that Palestinians are making towards unity, after seven years of internecine fighting that only served to weaken their efforts to secure statehood and mount a credible political opposition to Israel.
It has also been deeply unpopular with the Palestinian public, who see the Hamas-Fatah division as a result of power-hungry elites in both Gaza and the West Bank competing for political control as the Israeli occupation grows ever more entrenched.
When I recently spoke to Munib Al Masri, the Palestinian businessman and former diplomat who led the recent delegation to Gaza, he summed up an attitude that is widely felt among Palestinians in both territories.
“For me, this division is more heartbreaking … than the Israeli occupation, because in an occupation you know you are occupied. But these people are our brothers,” he said.
Mr Al Masri, who has championed reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah for seven years, will rightly feel that with this latest accord, such reconciliation is at least within the Palestinians’ grasp.
Orlando Crowcroft is a freelance journalist based in Jerusalem
On Twitter: @ocrowcroft
