Opec secretary general Mohammed Barkindo dismissed the risks posed to the global oil markets from the escalating trade war between the US and China saying the impact had been “exaggerated”.
“There's a lot of hype there in the market. The export numbers from China, for example, for the month of August came down by 1 per cent but we have lost in the oil market ten times from the beginning of this trade dispute until now,” he told reporters in Abu Dhabi.
"Even delays in the meetings of the negotiators have impacts on prices because of the increasing interconnection between the oil and the financial markets,” he added.
His comments echo the sentiments voiced by the new Saudi energy minister and de facto leader of Opec, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, who said the markets were primarily driven by “negative sentiment”.
He said he did not believe that the tensions between Washington and Beijing, which escalated in tit-for-tariffs slapped on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods, including US crude, were not resolvable.
"They are projecting a recession subject to a possible trade war. Where is it? Do you really believe [the] US and China and those other countries involved would not have the wisdom and sensibility to try to overcome these issues without impacting the [global] economy in a most drastic way?” Prince Abdulaziz told reporters on Monday.
Opec and its non-member allies led by Russia are part of a global pact undertaking supply adjustments of around 1.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year. They will meet in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday to review their production figures.
Opec's dismissal of trade war woes comes in contrast to the International Energy Agency, which has repeatedly revised down its oil demand growth forecast for this year. The IEA expects demand growth for crude to reach 1.1 million bpd in 2019 and 1.3 million bpd in 2020, a reduction of 100,000 bpd for this year and 50,000 bpd next year. The US-China trade war has depressed oil prices by $15 a barrel, Bloomberg reported, citing Energy Aspects.
Mr Barkindo noted that the revisions were premised on the impact of trade disputes on global economic growth this year and in 2020. Opec remained “cautiously optimistic” that the impact will not be magnified, he added.
The secretary general also did not expect any change in Saudi oil policy following the appointment of a new energy minister in the kingdom.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
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Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
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Inside Palestine-Israel
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Michael Young: The issue with Israel's 'iron wall'
Michael Young: What Israel's divisions mean for Arabs
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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While you're here
Richard Javad Heydarian: Across Asia there are crowds who can't get enough of Trump
Joanna Tan: How five ministers from SE Asia forged the region's most important group
Sholto Byrnes: Why are there so many territorial disputes in Asia?
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
more from Joseph Borell
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
