BAGHDAD // On the western edge of Iraq’s capital, ISIL militants battle government forces and exchange mortar fire, only adding to the sense of siege in Baghdad despite airstrikes by a US-led coalition.
Yet military experts say the militants, who now control a large territory along the border that Iraq and Syria share, won’t be able to fight through both government forces and Shiite militias now massed around the capital.
It does, however, put them in a position to wreak havoc in Iraq’s biggest city, with its suicide attacks and other assaults further eroding confidence in Iraq’s nascent federal government and its troops, whose soldiers already fled ISIL’s initial lightning advance in June. “It’s not plausible at this point to envision ISIL taking control of Baghdad, but they can make Baghdad so miserable that it would threaten the legitimacy of the central government,” said Richard Brennan, an Iraq expert with RAND Corporation and former US department of defence policymaker.
The siege fears in Baghdad stem from recent gains made by ISIL in the so-called Baghdad Belt – the final stretch between Anbar province, where the group gained ground in January, and Baghdad. The group has had a presence in the Baghdad Belt since spring, Iraqi officials say, but recent advances have sparked new worries.
On Saturday, car bomb blasts in two Shiite neighbourhoods of the Iraqi capital killed at least 34 people and wounded 54 on Saturday, police and medical sources said.
A suicide car bomb exploded at a police checkpoint guarding Kadhimiyah, a neighbourhood in northwestern Baghdad that is home to one of the holiest shrines in Shiite Islam.
A police colonel said at least 10 people were killed and 31 wounded, a toll confirmed by a medical source.
Farther west, in the district of Shoala, a car bomb went off in a busy commercial street, killing at least 24 people and wounding another 23, a medical source said.
Last week, ISIL fighters seized the towns of Hit and neighbouring Kubaisa, sending Iraqi soldiers fleeing and leaving a nearby military base with its stockpile of weapons at risk of capture. The US-led coalition recently launched two airstrikes north-west of Hit, US central command said on Saturday.
Government forces still control most of the Anbar provincial capital of Ramadi, but the city is vulnerable.
Perhaps most worrying, ISIL fighters now battle Iraqi forces in Abu Ghraib, the town home to the infamous prison of the same name that’s only 29 kilometres from the Green Zone, the fortified international zone protecting Baghdad-based embassies and government offices.
To the south of Baghdad, security forces fight to hold onto the town of Jurf Al Sukr, and to the north, one Sunni tribe has held onto the town of Duluiyah despite ISIL’s onslaught. However, ISIL fighters have taken over a number of towns in Diyala province, east of Baghdad.
Yet authorities believe an assault to take Baghdad remains unlikely. An Iraqi military and intelligence official each said that as many as 60,000 government security personnel, including soldiers and police officers, are currently in position outside the city along the Baghdad Belt.
Since that initial September assault, Baghdad largely has been spared and remained relatively calm, considering the intense sectarian bloodshed residents saw in 2006 and 2007 after the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. Still, many remain worried.
“It’s scary,” said Maha Ismail, who recently visited one of Baghdad’s new shopping malls. “But we have seen a lot worse than this so we are gathering despite all the warnings.”
A US counterterrorism official said Baghdad would remain a target for ISIL attacks, though seizing it outright would be nearly impossible.
“Attacking Baghdad is probably still in [its] playbook but its leaders must know they would face overwhelming odds in striking the city,” the US official said.
ISIL says it has a foothold inside Baghdad, having claimed responsibility for a number of attacks in the city, particularly in the Sadr City neighbourhood – a Shiite stronghold. In August, the group claimed responsibility for an attack on a Shiite mosque in New Baghdad, and another in the Shiite-majority district of Utaifiya in Baghdad, which together killed 26 people.
Yet analysts, like Mr Brennan from the RAND Corporation, say capturing Baghdad remains beyond ISIL’s ability. At its worst, the group might “start pressing into the western areas of Baghdad, going into the Sunni areas of Baghdad and pressing up against the Tigris [River] — if not controlling it, then at least testing the control of the central government,” he said.
At a recent news conference, Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm John Kirby also said Baghdad is protected.
“Airstrikes around the city, particularly to the south and to the south-east of the city, we believe, have been effective in blunting” [ISIL], he said.
Beyond the US-coordinated airstrikes and the massing of Iraqi troops, the country’s religious and ethnic lines likely will staunch any advance by the Sunni militants. From Baghdad further south, Iraq’s population is overwhelmingly Shiite and the lands there are home to some of its most important shrines.
* Associated Press
Tewellah by Nawal Zoghbi is out now.
The specs
Engine: 2x201bhp AC Permanent-magnetic electric
Transmission: n/a
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 659Nm
Price estimate: Dh200,000
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Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Super 30
Produced: Sajid Nadiadwala and Phantom Productions
Directed: Vikas Bahl
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Pankaj Tripathi, Aditya Srivastav, Mrinal Thakur
Rating: 3.5 /5
Freezer tips
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group B
Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight
ASHES SCHEDULE
First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
the pledge
I pledge to uphold the duty of tolerance
I pledge to take a first stand against hate and injustice
I pledge to respect and accept people whose abilities, beliefs and culture are different from my own
I pledge to wish for others what I wish for myself
I pledge to live in harmony with my community
I pledge to always be open to dialogue and forgiveness
I pledge to do my part to create peace for all
I pledge to exercise benevolence and choose kindness in all my dealings with my community
I pledge to always stand up for these values: Zayed's values for tolerance and human fraternity
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
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When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
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'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
Karnataka Tuskers 110-5 (10 ovs)
Tharanga 48, Shafiq 34, Rampaul 2-16
Delhi Bulls 91-8 (10 ovs)
Mathews 31, Rimmington 3-28
Karnataka Tuskers win by 19 runs
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
Price: Dh1,000,885
On sale: now
Calls
Directed by: Fede Alvarez
Starring: Pedro Pascal, Karen Gillian, Aaron Taylor-Johnson
4/5
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
