BAGHDAD // As Washington denies reports that a firm decision has been made to pull all but a handful of US troops out of Iraq by the end of the year, in Baghdad the suggestion that the Americans are leaving provokes either celebration or fear.
Since the invasion of 2003, the US army has been viewed as a hostile occupation force by millions of Iraqis, and even their biggest supporters are often sharply critical of their actions during eight years of fighting.
But, at the same time, America's military has been accepted by many Iraqis as an important stabilising influence, as a buffer between different sects and ethnic groups, a restraining hand on Iraq's widely mistrusted political classes and, crucially, a counterweight to the growing influence of Iran.
Publicly at least, Iraq's politicians have been sanguine about the prospect of few active-duty US soldiers remaining in the country.
"If the Americans have decided to leave by the end of the year, then we welcome that," said Mohammad Al Seyhood, an MP with the ruling National Alliance bloc.
Privately, however, a significant number of politicians and ordinary Iraqis seem alarmed that such a comprehensive withdrawal will leave behind national security forces unprepared for the enormous task of safeguarding their country.
While US troops have been away from front line combat duties for 14 months, they have continued to work as trainers, logisticians, high-tech equipment specialists and as a safety net of last resort for their Iraqi counterparts, still struggling to fight an insurgency and powerful militia groups.
A string of recent bombings targeting security officials in the heart of the capital has served as a stark reminder that the country is far from at peace.
"The security situation at the moment is very fragile. The army is still not fully equipped and professional and we cannot cover our own airspace. That's a worry for us," said Jamal Al Galvani, an MP with the Iraqiyya bloc.
"If the Americans pull out, the security situation looks as though it will be very, very difficult in the coming months, it will encourage terrorist organisations to think they can take a strong position for themselves in the country."
Yet Mr Al Galvani stopped short of openly saying he favoured a continued US military presence. The issue is just too toxic for most politicians; none wants to be seen as inviting a continued occupation in front of a fiercely proud and nationalistic electorate.
"Speak to a politician off-the-record and almost all of them are begging the American army to stay," said one Iraqi journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Turn on your recorder and they instantly change their position and say the Americans must leave or face the consequences, that's the truth of this"
Iraq's parliament has been negotiating a deal that would have kept between 3,000 and 5,000 American soldiers on in a training role but those talks have stalled. Washington insists military personnel must have immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts, something Baghdad's parliament has refused to grant.
That point appears to have prompted US officials to conclude that the total pull-out must therefore go ahead, in accordance with a legally binding timetable agreed to between the two countries.
On Saturday, the Associated Press quoted two senior US officials as saying the decision to withdraw all troops had now been made. That report was subsequently denied by the White House and Defence Department, which said discussions were continuing.
While Iraqis entertain the possibility that Washington may just be using news leaks as a negotiating gambit, there is little real prospect of the fractious parliament settling on an alternative offer in time. US commanders have made it clear that the complexities of shutting bases and shipping out equipment and personnel mean no last-minute decisions can be made.
"With the exception of the Sadr movement and those Baathists in the Iraqiyya bloc, few Iraqi politicians actually want the Americans to pull out," said Amar Al Hamid, a political science professor at Baghdad's Al Rafidain college. "They don't say it publicly but they would love prime minister [Nouri] Al Maliki to cut a deal with the Americans behind their backs, so that it is all on his shoulders."
Mr Al Hamid said Iraq would descend into a war between political factions, rival militias and Al Qaeda inspired terrorist groups if the complete withdrawal does take place.
"If we do not have a smooth transition, then I fear we will see two or three years of chaos and bloodshed," he said. "It would also be a huge strategic mistake by the US in the Middle East."
The Sadr movement, an influential grassroots political group whose military wing, the Mahdi Army, fought pitched battles with US forces between 2004 and 2008, has been pushing for all American soldiers to be removed from Iraqi soil.
"If they really are going to pull out their troops, we welcome that move, and it will leave Iraq stable and free," said a Sadrist MP. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he has not been authorised to discuss the issue with the press.
However, he also voiced suspicions that news of the pullout was a sleight of hand by the White House as it seeks to ensure US troops do stay in Iraq.
"We believe the Americans will leave a force of about 20,000 soldiers in Iraq, without the Iraqi government knowing," he said. "The Americans will do all they can to stay here, even planting bombs to make the security situation look bad so they are asked to stay."
In the Ameen district of Baghdad, something of a Sadrists stronghold, Hibba Al Maliki, a 27-year-old oil ministry employee said news of US troops leaving was a "nightmare".
"I used to have to wear nib [a full veil] because the Mahdi Army ran my neighbourhood but the Americans helped defeat them and I was much more free to behave as I please," she said. "I will lose that freedom if the Americans leave."
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