Voter fatigue may be key to unlocking UK election

Peter Hellyer surveys the political landscape in the UK ahead of the general election vote

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK opposition Labour party, delivers his first campaign speech of the 2017 general election in London. Chris Ratcliffe / Bloomberg

As the second week of the United Kingdom’s general election campaign begins, with just over six weeks to go, it’s difficult not to feel sympathy for “Brenda from Bristol”, a voter whose reaction to the announcement of the poll was captured by the BBC. “You’re joking!”, she exclaimed. “Not another one. I can’t stand it! There’s too much politics going on at the moment …”

The last general election was in 2015 and the referendum on leaving the European Union was last summer. Next week there will be local elections in Britain’s cities, towns and counties. Outside England, UK voters have even more reason to be fed up than Brenda. The Scottish referendum on a breakaway from the UK was in 2014, while Scotland and Wales had elections for their devolved governments last summer. Following inconclusive polls last month, Northern Ireland may well have to face another regional election once the general election is over.

There are already signs of pervasive electoral fatigue and the pundits, who are, of course, often wrong, are predicting a slump in the number of people who will vote in June.

Yet this year’s general election is arguably the most important not just for a generation but for many decades. As the process of British withdrawal from the EU grinds inexorably forward, there’s concern in many quarters about the country’s future, the apparent confidence of Theresa May’s government notwithstanding. The UK joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973, when well over half of the current population hadn’t even been born. They have no memory of a Britain outside the EU. Those who are older may remember the declining days of empire after 1945, but those fading memories are of little relevance today.

Instead, there lies ahead not only the challenge of a Britain that needs to identify a new place in the world but also the prospect of a possible fracturing of the UK itself. The concept of Scottish independence is now widely accepted, if not so widely welcomed, while the issue of a future reunification of the island of Ireland may yet reappear on the agenda as the people of Northern Ireland, who voted to stay within the EU during last year’s referendum, consider their future relationship with their southern neighbour.

Voters’ views on these issues, however, are by no means aligned with conventional political allegiances. While the governing Conservatives, led by Mrs May, have an apparently commanding lead in the opinion polls as they seek a mandate for an as-yet ill-defined Brexit strategy, many of their supporters voted to stay in the EU while others would prefer a “soft” rather than a “hard” Brexit.

The opposition Labour party, led by socialist firebrand Jeremy Corbyn, is split not just on this issue but on a right-left divide that harks back to its travails over 30 years ago, with its electoral prospects far from encouraging, to put it mildly. The minority Liberal Democrats, who barely survived the 2015 election, hope that their opposition to Brexit will enable them to recover a bit, gaining support from the 48 per cent of voters who wished to remain in Europe, but have little chance of recouping the majority of their losses.

The campaign seems set to plumb new depths in terms of vitriol, with the Brexit-supporting Daily Mail accusing those who oppose the prime minister’s approach towards leaving the EU of being saboteurs. It appears unlikely that the level of political debate will rise as the weeks go on, with little chance of voters’ decisions on the UK’s future being driven by objective and dispassionate debate.

It would be little surprise if, on June 8, many potential voters adopt the approach of “Brenda from Bristol” and simply choose to stay away from the polling booths. That would be a pity, but then parliamentary democracy is, at best, an imperfect institution.

Peter Hellyer is a consultant specialising in the UAE’s history and culture