Those observing the past few days in the Middle East will have witnessed alarming Houthi gains in Yemen and the shelving of Iran-Gulf talks planned for Oman. It is likely that those same observers will also perceive a clear contradiction in Tehran’s approach; Iran cannot credibly seek better relations with its Gulf neighbours while continuing to enable armed groups that threaten and attack those same neighbours.
The latest escalation in Yemen has laid bare this contradiction. The Houthis – who enjoy Iran’s support – have claimed responsibility for more attacks on Saudi Arabia as they push to expand their influence around the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb. As well as displacing an estimated 80,000 people, the fighting has come at the cost of any tangible diplomatic progress.
Proposed Iran-Gulf discussions offered an opportunity to reduce the risk of a wider regional war. However, diplomacy cannot be separated from events on the ground. While officials consider how best to de-escalate between Iran and its neighbours, the Houthis – as well as Iranian-backed armed proxies based in Iraq – are firing missiles and drones towards Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the Houthis are threatening one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.
The consequences of the Houthi offensive extend well beyond the battlefield. The rebels’ growing presence around the Bab Al Mandeb gives Tehran strategic leverage far beyond Iran’s own coastline. It also creates another pressure point for international shipping and energy supplies, while adding to the suffering of impoverished Yemenis already caught in a conflict that has ground on for well over a decide with the Houthis’ violent takeover in Sanaa. Meanwhile, Djibouti has said that more than 2,000 Yemeni refugees have arrived on its shores from across the Red Sea, highlighting how the conflict is spilling over into Africa.
Tehran cannot have it both ways. It cannot seek an understanding with its Gulf neighbours while using, or allowing, its regional network to project power against them. This does not mean diplomacy should be abandoned; serious dialogue is more necessary than ever. However, any future understanding between Tehran and the Gulf countries must address the full range of Iranian regional power – its missiles and drones, its support for armed groups and the threats posed to maritime routes.
Gulf countries have many good reasons to desire a more stable relationship with Tehran - but ultimately it is Tehran that needs good ties with its neighbours. The region’s geography makes unending confrontation an unattractive proposition for everyone. However, it is hard to see how stability can be built on assurances while missiles are being launched and armed rebels sweep through Yemeni towns and cities.
The lesson from these abortive talks should be clear. A Gulf-Iran modus vivendi will require more than promises of non-interference or assurances of goodwill. It will require Tehran to demonstrate that its ambitions do not come at the expense of its neighbours' security. Until those two realities are reconciled, diplomacy will remain hostage to the very regional power plays it is trying to overcome.
