Although confusion reigned this week about the status of purported US-Iran talks in Doha, across the Middle East, some tentative but encouraging steps towards normality are being taken.
On June 29, a passenger flight from Tehran landed at Dubai International Airport, the first to do so since the US-Israel war against Iran began on February 28. The day before, Emiratis were permitted to resume travel to Lebanon after the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs lifted some of the safety restrictions that had been in place.
Given the seriousness of the months-long conflict that has disrupted life across the region, these are not minor developments. Families want to be reunited, and people still want to travel for business or personal reasons. The UAE is home to hundreds of thousands of ordinary Iranians and Lebanese. The restoration of travel shows authorities' conviction in maintaining these people-to-people ties and their confidence that ensuring security need not require sacrificing them.
However, alongside this sits another reality in the region: war itself is close to being normalised. From the first weeks of daily missile and drone attacks, the conflict has settled into a sporadic, intermittent affair. Now, periods of calm are punctuated by attack and counterattack. Somewhat like the weather, the war is discussed, anticipated and managed around. Some days are calm, others volatile. Unfortunately, the sense of powerlessness people feel about natural elements is also to be found in a sense of resignation surrounding the conflict.
There is even a growing perception that the war now operates within informal boundaries. Market expectations that escalation will be contained have not gone unnoticed, with one online commentator wryly observing that “Middle East wars are now scheduled from 9pm Friday to 10.30pm Sunday (GMT)”. Whether or not such assumptions are valid, even limited or threatened conflict has consequences that travel far beyond the battlefield.
Shipping companies respond to risk, not rhetorical political reassurances that safe passage has been re-established. The consequence is longer journeys, congested ports and rising freight costs. Energy markets react even faster, with oil prices climbing on the mere perception of disruption. Uncertain gas shipments from the Gulf, which are critical to Asia and Europe, lead to price speculation and precautionary buying.
This ripple effect extends further into aviation and tourism. Episodic Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait stress these countries’ air networks. The longer this goes on, the more airlines will adjust routes to avoid risk zones, leading to increased flight times and fuel consumption. Travellers grow cautious, dampening demand in a sector that thrives on confidence.
Gulf counties have shown remarkable resilience and adaptability in the face of a war not of their making - but complacency cannot be allowed to take hold. Negotiators should work harder to normalise stability, rather than uncertainty. That may be a difficult task, but it is one that should take priority over all others.
