Yemen's armed forces announced on Saturday a broad operation against Houthi positions on several fronts, days after missile and drone attacks killed at least 45 government personnel in Marib and Hadhramaut. Hans Grundberg, the UN special envoy, warns the country now faces its gravest risk of large-scale war since the truce of April 2022.
His words should be taken seriously. What makes this moment more perilous is that a new Yemeni war would be fought inside a larger one: the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. Saudi Arabia and the US – the powers that once underwrote Yemen's fragile calm – are having to deal with Iranian attacksin the Gulf. It seems the Houthis are now directly involved in the war to elevate some of the pressure on Tehran. The maritime stakes have risen too. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut since February, the Bab Al Mandeb is of even greater significance.
While the Houthis have lost significant numbers of commanders and troops in ongoing fighting, Yemen's anti-Houthi factions have many internal differences to overcome. Saudi Arabia is trying to knit them together while defending its own territory; a Houthi attack in Najran on Friday injured 11 civilians.
None of this makes war inevitable. Washington and Tehran have every reason to avoid an expanded war and must redouble their efforts to negotiate a settlement in Hormuz. There will undoubtedly be those in Tehran who believe that a new front in Yemen would increase its leverage, but in truth it would only destabilise Iran’s fragile position more quickly.
There is still plenty of scope for diplomacy of the kind Yemen saw only three years ago, when the trajectory ran the other way. A 2022 truce held, and by December 2023 Saudi and Omani mediation had produced a roadmap covering a permanent ceasefire, public salaries and oil revenues. It stalled when Iran drew its proxies – including the Houthis – into the Gaza war.
The underlying case for peace in Yemen, though, has not changed since then. The Houthis may feel vindicated by Iran's current resistance to the US, but Tehran is fighting for its own survival, and its resources are more stretched than at any point in the group's history. Yemenis under Houthi rule are unpaid, underfed and poorly governed. Fresh battles cannot remedy that, but settlement that restores salaries and reopens ports would mean a tangible improvement in people’s lives. At a time when so much of the region feels stuck in intractable conflict, it would also offer a much-needed opportunity to create new momentum in the direction of peace.
