When Saudi Arabia came under missile attack from Yemen’s Houthi militants on Monday evening, hours after an explosion at a rebel-held airport in Sanaa, for many in the region – already dismayed by the renewed fighting between Iranian and US forces – this sudden escalation further reinforced the volatile circumstances the region faces.
Yet, no one should be taken aback that Yemen is emerging as another front in the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. The warning signs have been visible for some time, even following the 2022 ceasefire between the Iran-backed paramilitaries and the Yemeni government. Diplomacy has failed to address many of the fundamental problems that have kept Yemen trapped in crisis – poverty, hunger, weak governance, illegal weapons, foreign interference and the Houthis’ repression of perceived opponents.
The rebels’ latest announcement that they are ending this period of de-escalation only underlines how fragile the calm of recent years was. The violence should give pause to those who thought the Yemen file could be deprioritised. The important question now is how the situation can be contained.
This is vital because what happens in Yemen does not stay in Yemen. As mentioned, attacks have been aimed at Saudi Arabia. Less than a week ago, Bab Al Mandeb – a strategically vital waterway like the Strait of Hormuz – was the scene of conflict when armed security personnel aboard a cargo vessel faced attack from assailants in a small boat. Previously, the Houthis’ military spokesman, Brig Gen Yahya Al Saree, declared a “complete ban on enemy navigation” in the Red Sea, saying “enemy ships” would be treated as military targets. That means anyone standing up to the Houthis’ thuggery.
Much of the fault for this situation lies with the Houthis. As an armed movement with regional ambitions and a powerful patron, it has continued to regard confrontation as leverage and a means of advancing its ideological goals. Years of negotiations, international engagement and attempts at accommodation have failed to produce a more pragmatic group. Instead, the militants continue to pursue a rigid worldview that places its agenda above the needs of ordinary Yemenis.
Much blame lies with Tehran too. Iran’s role in Yemen cannot be overlooked, and although its so-called Axis of Resistance has suffered setbacks in recent years, these networks remain active not only in Yemen but in Iraq and Lebanon too. Despite many setbacks, these proxies retain the ability to help an under-fire Iran project influence and create security risks across the region.
But military pressure alone will not solve Yemen’s crisis. Indeed, many Yemeni civilians have suffered even more hardship from the Houthis and from US and Israeli strikes on this impoverished country. For this reason, as well as the importance of Yemen’s position in the Middle East, the kind of international attention devoted to securing the Strait of Hormuz must also be applied to defusing this combustible situation. The violence of this week, although alarming, also presents an opportunity to learn a lesson: ignoring Yemen only delays the next crisis.
