After Myanmar's military regime marked National Armed Forces' Day on Saturday by committing their greatest massacre of protesters so far – killing 114 men, women and children – the coup-installed government of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing received another round of international condemnation.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was "horrified" and denounced "the military's reign of terror". The UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews said the junta was committing "mass murder" – and this just after the defence chiefs of 12 countries, mainly western, but including South Korea and Japan, had published a statement condemning "the use of lethal force against unarmed people by the Myanmar armed forces and associated security services".
The sentiment that “something must be done” to end the violence and restore parliamentary democracy is understandably urgent. But what and by whom? The precedents are not encouraging. As Aung Zaw, editor-in-chief of the respected Irrawaddy news group, once wrote: “When the Burmese regime decides to act, it moves quickly, crushing its opponents without hesitation or regard for public or international opinion.”
In 2009, shortly before the country’s hybrid democracy – in which considerable powers were reserved by the military – was launched – Aung Zaw published an essay which noted that at that point neither sanctions, “constructive engagement”, nor mass popular uprisings had “succeeded in forcing the generals to weaken their stranglehold” on the country that they had ruled since 1962.
This time is different, though. While the half million strong Tatmadaw, as the armed forces are known, may remain largely cohesive, conditioned by their positions as the "guardians" of Myanmar and as a privileged state-within-a-state, the citizenry are proving hard to cow. Maung Zarni, the Burmese co-founder of Forces of Renewal South-East Asia, a cross-border network of pro-democracy scholars and activists, points out that the "hundreds of thousands of civil servants engaged in the Civil Disobedience Movement" who have not returned to work since the coup of February 1, have "deprived" the military "of a functioning state".
Moreover the generals’ seizure of power, Dr Zarni tells me, has “radicalised the entire generation of about 15-20 million youth, some of whom are now undergoing training in urban guerrilla warfare with ethnic armed groups”. The latter, drawn from the numerous ethnic groups that do not belong to the majority Bamar, have been battling the central state since independence. Many are now offering shelter in their borderland strongholds to the National League for Democracy (NLD) lawmakers turfed out by the coup, who are operating as an alternative government known as the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw.
With an unrepentant military, a defiant population, and a nascent alliance between the ousted NLD government and the ethnic armies, the stage is set for a devastating civil war. Dr Zarni and the Indonesian analyst Evan Laksmana both warn of a Syria-like scenario in South-East Asia's neighbourhood. And that is why inaction is not an option for Asean, the Association of South-East Asian Nations to which Myanmar and all the region's states, bar Timor-Leste, belong.
As someone who has been writing about the plight of the Rohingya for the best part of 10 years, it galls me that the mass ethnic cleansing and atrocities they have suffered in Myanmar prompted little action in real terms, while the murder of a far smaller number now seems likely to spur more decisive measures.
But the reality is that nothing compelled Asean to act then. It was even controversial when in 2017 Malaysia’s then prime minister, Najib Razak, called on the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation to end the Rohingya’s “humanitarian tragedy” – he was accused of violating the Asean principle of non-interference in each others’ internal affairs.
A civil war in Myanmar, however, would threaten the image of Asean as "a progressive, dynamic and integrated community, at the centre of wider regional mechanisms and architectures", ranging from the East Asia Summit to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership mega-trade agreement, as Thomas Daniel, my former colleague at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, puts it.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, right, and her Singaporean counterpart, Vivian Balakrishnan, during their meeting in Jakarta on Thursday. AP Photo
Beyond the damage to Asean as an institution, the wave of refugees and the economic catastrophe that civil war would cause would seriously affect India, China, Japan – a huge investor in Myanmar – and others, too.
Asean, though, is divided. Indonesia and Malaysia have called for an urgent summit to address this issue, but some others prefer the path of quiet dialogue. Then there is the question of leverage; and it is not clear that any Asean member state, with the possible exception of Thailand, which doesn't want to force the issue, has sufficient influence to push the junta to do anything.
As Asean's giant by population, Indonesia can – and is – taking the lead in trying to engage China, Japan, Russia, India and the US. A recent analysis in the Foreign Policy magazine argued that Japan and India, which both have strong ties to the Tatmadaw as well as major economic interests in Myanmar, could play very useful roles. If they "use the full extent of their influence, they can end the impasse in Myanmar sooner than expect", was the authors' conclusion.
That sounds too optimistic for Dr Zarni, a long-time activist whose independence is attested to by the fact that his commentary has been attacked by both the Tatmadaw and allies of Aung San Suu Kyi, the deposed civilian leader, over the years. "Backdoor diplomacy" won't work, he says, with what he labels an "intransigent terroristic regime". He calls for a summit of the 12 defence chiefs who issued the statement, along with those from Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore.
This alliance of concerned states, including Asean countries, should explore all possible options for ending the killings, he tells me. This, “more than any sanctions by the West or statements from the UN ought to drive the fear of God into the coup regime”, he says. “You cannot mediate in this essentially zero-sum war. But you have to help empower 54 million people vis-a-vis 400,000 terroristic men.”
All avenues should be explored, and I would place greater hopes on dialogue than Dr Zarni does. But this is a case when “something” really “must be done”. Asean and the wider region have to act with as much co-ordination as they can muster. They cannot allow Myanmar to descend into a Syria-type quagmire without having taken all steps possible to save the country from that hell.
Sholto Byrnes is an East Asian affairs columnist for The National
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Ordinary Virtues: Moral Order in a Divided World by Michael Ignatieff
Harvard University Press
Points tally
1. Australia 52; 2. New Zealand 44; 3. South Africa 36; 4. Sri Lanka 35; 5. UAE 27; 6. India 27; 7. England 26; 8. Singapore 8; 9. Malaysia 3
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Emiratisation at work
Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago
It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.
Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers
The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension
President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.
During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development
More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics
The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens
UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere
The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side 8 There are eight players per team 9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one. 5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls 4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
In The Heights
Directed by: Jon M. Chu
Stars: Anthony Ramos, Lin-Manual Miranda
Rating: ****
Company Profile
Founders: Tamara Hachem and Yazid Erman
Based: Dubai
Launched: September 2019
Sector: health technology
Stage: seed
Investors: Oman Technology Fund, angel investor and grants from Sharjah's Sheraa and Ma'an Abu Dhabi
2. Michael Matthews (AUS) Team BikeExchange 0:00:08
3. Primoz Roglic (SLV) Jumbo-Visma same time
4. Jack Haig (AUS) Bahrain Victorious s.t
5. Wilco Kelderman (NED) Bora-Hansgrohe s.t
6. Tadej Pogacar (SLV) UAE Team Emirates s.t
7. David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ s.t
8. Sergio Higuita Garcia (COL) EF Education-Nippo s.t
9. Bauke Mollema (NED) Trek-Segafredo s.t
10. Geraint Thomas (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers s.t
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
Countries offering golden visas
UK Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities. Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids. Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
Edinburgh, Scotland
Westminster, London
Camden, London
Glasgow, Scotland
Islington, London
Kensington and Chelsea, London
Highlands, Scotland
Argyll and Bute, Scotland
Fife, Scotland
Tower Hamlets, London
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
How tumultuous protests grew
A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
