Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, left, and Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh applaud in Hanoi following the online signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. EPA
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, left, and Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh applaud in Hanoi following the online signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. EPA
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, left, and Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh applaud in Hanoi following the online signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. EPA
The world's biggest trade agreement was signed on Sunday. Leaders from Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, and the 10 members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations put pen to paper in a virtual conference to launch the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which will represent 30 per cent of global gross domestic product and – at 2.2 billion people – 30 per cent of the world's population.
It could have been even bigger. India was to join, too, but pulled out last year amid fears that membership of RCEP would mean it was unable to protect some domestic industries from being undercut by cheaper imports. Nevertheless, it is a big deal, both figuratively and literally, and long awaited; it was originally predicted to be signed as long as two years ago, but negotiations dragged on. An urgent need to repair pandemic-hit economies may have pushed the pact over the line, as it is expected to add around $140 billion to the global economy, and reducing or eliminating tariff barriers and standardising other procedures should provide a lift to the GDP of all signatory states.
The signing of RCEP – it will still have to be ratified by member countries – is being presented by many as a big win for China and a sign of how America's influence in the region is diminishing. It is certainly true that the US is not a member. Neither is it in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP, a much more ambitious agreement signed by 11 Asia-Pacific countries, which is a new version of one of former US president Barack Obama's signature trade initiatives – quite possibly the reason why President Donald Trump, his successor, withdrew from the original partnership in one his very first actions in office.
Donald Trump's America has engaged in what is essentially a zero-sum game with Xi Jinping's China. Bloomberg
Mr Trump has not helped perceptions of his administration by tapping, once again, his National Security Adviser, Robert O’Brien, to represent him at the East Asia Summit, the Asean-hosted event at which RCEP was signed. Asean states, which are used to the presence of heads of government at this flagship regional gathering, were unimpressed when Mr O’Brien was sent along before. As this year’s event requires no travelling, that no one more senior could have sat down in Washington to participate via video camera was seen as even more of a snub.
This may all seem to fit the narrative of China gaining, and America losing, influence. What many commentators fail to mention, either from ignorance or, more likely, an insistence on viewing all news about China as a “win” or a “lose” in a zero-sum competition with the US, is that RCEP has not been a Beijing-led process. It was from the start an Asean initiative – as its Secretary General, Lim Jock Hoi, is keen to make clear. “The signing of the RCEP agreement is a historic event as it underpins Asean’s role in leading a multilateral trade agreement of this magnitude, despite global and regional challenges and eight years of negotiations,” he said after the signing on Sunday.
Asean – a regional association that consists of more than 650 million people, which is collectively expected to be the world's fourth largest economy by 2050, if not 2030 – is rarely given sufficient credit, either for what it does or for the potential it represents. But many observers are so keen to see the wider area as a battleground over which China and the US will fight for supremacy, they not only ignore the fact that most states don't wish to take sides (as I've written before), but they seem to deny agency to all those countries that are not one of those two giants.
Shadi Ghanim's take on the US perspective of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
While the pact may be viewed positively by Beijing, it is not an attempt to exclude the US. It is in keeping with Asean's long-term commitment to open regionalism and regional integration
Just as RCEP was an Asean achievement, so the CPTPP was completed with neither China nor the US as a signatory. As Evan Feigenbaum, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in an essay a couple of months ago: “This could be a model in other areas as Asia’s capable, sizeable, and self-interested players increasingly step up in fluid, issue-based coalitions.”
Noting that both the US and China are perceived as having tried to corral individual nations to their “side”, and that the two have failed to co-operate fruitfully in the greatest public health crisis for generations, Mr Feigenbaum continued: “Asia’s players may seek to define their own terms of engagement. As with the CPTPP, this co-ordination could in turn leave out Beijing, Washington, or both if they threaten to become spoilers of meaningful action. It could ultimately be these other Asian players that write the rules of their region’s future.”
I am not sure I would go so far as that conclusion, but it is one that should not be discounted; and at the moment it is barely being considered.
Another problem with framing RCEP as a victory for China is that, while the pact may be viewed positively by Beijing, it is not an attempt to exclude the US. It is in keeping with Asean’s long-term commitment to open regionalism and regional integration. If that leads in the longer term to a more “Asian Asia”, then that is a concept that can draw on many historical wellsprings, from centuries of cross-continental trading and equally enriching cultural interactions, to the experience of being colonised by European powers, and developing world solidarity.
I end with three points to consider. Firstly, RCEP is not part of some Chinese plan to dominate Asia and then the world. Secondly, the laurels for its signing should go to Asean, a far more successful regional grouping than is widely recognised. And thirdly, the US needs to commit and participate if it wants to be taken seriously in the Asia-Pacific – and that means economically, as part of agreements like the CPTPP, not just in terms of its security presence.
If, next time there is an important regional gathering, President-elect Joe Biden shows up himself, that would be a good start. “Welcome back" would be the greeting from almost everyone present.
Sholto Byrnes is an East Asian affairs columnist for The National
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
