US President Donald Trump waves to visitors to the White House, before travelling to his first rally since the Mueller report was concluded. EPA/Michael Reynolds
US President Donald Trump waves to visitors to the White House, before travelling to his first rally since the Mueller report was concluded. EPA/Michael Reynolds
US President Donald Trump waves to visitors to the White House, before travelling to his first rally since the Mueller report was concluded. EPA/Michael Reynolds
US President Donald Trump waves to visitors to the White House, before travelling to his first rally since the Mueller report was concluded. EPA/Michael Reynolds

If the Mueller report proves anything, it's that US democracy is badly broken


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Special Counsel Robert Mueller's 300-page report on Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election has been filed with the Justice Department, but no one else has seen a single sentence of it.

Congress and the public have only a four-page letter from Attorney General William Barr, supposedly summarising its findings.

Mr Mueller was apparently unable to prove a conspiracy by the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence, but unyielding Republican resolve to suppress the report suggests that it, nonetheless, contains highly damaging information.

Mr Trump's victory celebration is at best premature.

He claims complete vindication and exoneration, but the report categorically declines to exonerate him of obstruction of justice.

While Mr Barr and his deputy, Rod Rosenstein, argue that Mr Trump did not obstruct justice in his response to the investigation – including the firing of former FBI director James Comey – Mr Mueller's report obviously also provides grounds for a very different conclusion.

Democrats and much of the public may strongly differ with Mr Barr, once they see the full report – which Mr Mueller says doesn't exonerate the president and which Republicans seem keen to conceal.

The Democrats’ de facto leader, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is correct that since the Republican Senate majority is united behind Mr Trump, it’s pointless for the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives to impeach him.

Besides, Democrats think there's an excellent case for defeating Mr Trump in 2020, and many prefer a public repudiation of him and his white-nationalist politics to a parliamentary battle.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump continues to face ominous investigations by New York prosecutors into his businesses, foundation and campaign.

Although the impact on Mr Trump’s long-term viability remains to be seen, two major effects of the Mueller investigation are immediately evident.

First, the criminal convictions of Mr Trump's campaign manager, Paul Manafort, and his deputy, Robert Gates, announce a new era for prosecuting violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which was traditionally barely enforced.

These convictions, and others, signal that international lobbyists in Washington, and even the governments who hire them, must now be very careful about scrupulously adhering to this law.

Second, the reaction of Mr Barr and Mr Rosenstein to the Mueller report highlights one of several serious constitutional malfunctions in the American political system that are only getting worse.

In many ways, US democracy is badly broken. Some of its core structures are either no longer working as designed more than 200 years ago, or have become obsolete and thus dysfunctional.

For example, the federal election system, the electoral college, and several other aspects of the Connecticut Compromise on congressional representation between large and small states, all crafted when the Constitution was adopted at the end of the 18th century, have become, in a drastically changed nation, intolerably distorting.

They are resulting in minority rule by a conservative, rural electorate with far more power per individual voter than the larger, liberal and urban constituencies that mainly power the nation’s culture and economy, but are increasingly politically shortchanged. All this is exacerbated by dark money, gerrymandering, voter suppression and so on.

The Mueller investigation has brought a related conundrum bedevilling US governance into sharp focus: who guards the guardians?

Last year, Mr Barr virtually auditioned for his Attorney General job by writing a public memo denouncing the Mueller investigation and suggesting no president can commit obstruction of justice while conducting the duties of leading the executive branch.

Mr Barr does allow that if a president ordered the destruction of evidence or instructed staffers to commit perjury, that would constitute obstruction. But, he argues, if the president, acting as the government’s chief executive, instructs subordinates like the head of the FBI not to investigate someone or something, that is a judgment that he alone is constitutionally authorised to make and that cannot be second guessed.

Thus far, the handling of the Mueller report is reinforcing this troubling, quasi-monarchical, standard.

It places few constraints on any president inclined to subvert the law-enforcement process to benefit himself and his friends.

In theory, US presidents are checked by Congress, not the police. But political parties did not exist when the Constitution was drafted. It was assumed that Congress would invariably defend legislative prerogatives against an out-of-control executive. In practice, though, legislators defer almost totally to any president of their own party, and reflexively attack one from the other side, preferring organisational loyalty over institutional imperatives. So, the legislative check is generally either insufficient or excessive.

Past efforts to solve this problem, such as the genuinely independent special prosecutors created by the 1978 Ethics in Government Act, proved unsustainable, given that both parties win presidential power.

Republicans, angered by the Iran-Contra investigation, and Democrats, enraged by the Whitewater investigation that led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton, both quietly let the law expire in 1999.

That effectively produced the present scandalous situation, in which presidents apparently possess vast and virtually unfettered authority over federal police investigations, even into themselves, their administrations or their associates.

The US needs a viable process to constrain executive overreach and ensure real independence for investigators scrutinising presidents and their cronies. It’s hardly impossible.

Any well-functioning democracy would move expeditiously to craft one. So, don’t hold your breath.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States ­Institute in Washington

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Countries offering golden visas

UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.

Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.

Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.

Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.

Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence. 

Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

How has net migration to UK changed?

The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.

It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.

The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.

The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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THE LOWDOWN

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Rating: 4/5

Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies

Director: Ritesh Batra

Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz

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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law