Sunak's joke, Starmer's time: Will 2024 seal the deal for Labour?

He liked his little joke, did Rishi Sunak. Knowing they were desperate for the date of the next general election the Prime Minister told the assembled journalists at a press conference that it would be, wait for it … in 2024.

Of course, he never would tell them the exact day, just like that. Still, he enjoyed seeing their crestfallen faces.

While the media was disappointed, it was news, nevertheless. We now know the UK general election will not be in January 2025, the final date by which Mr Sunak is required to go to the country.

Appealing to him as it is, to remain in power for absolutely as long as possible, January would entail campaigning over Christmas and New Year, at a period when the British weather is usually grim and daylight hours short.

Some time next year, it is then. The favourite slot is the autumn, after the annual party conference. The theory is that Mr Sunak will send the activists on their way with a rousing speech, one which will reference lasting reforms to gambling, smoking, education. Migration will be in check, the economy will be growing, taxes lower, British pride will be restored.

It is his intention that this expounding of “Sunakism” will act as a springboard to victory. Or, at least if he loses, it will form his legacy.

Securing Sunakism is far from guaranteed. So far, on virtually all fronts, Mr Sunak has not made much headway.

In order for his policies to have a chance and to take hold, therefore, he requires time – hence holding a national ballot towards the end of the year.

There is another argument, that says Mr Sunak could go to the country earlier. By waiting, more people will be caught paying higher mortgages. Interest rates will still be raised as next year inflation proves stubborn to dislodge. As mortgage-holders come off fixed-rate loans, they will be hit with increased borrowing payments. Hundreds of thousands will be snared, many of them homeowning natural Tory supporters.

Mr Sunak, so this claim goes, should alight on an early date, in April or May. But in May, there are the local elections that could prove embarrassing for the Tories. One suggestion, canvassed at Westminster, is that the general and local polls are held on the same day.

In any event, whichever day Mr Sunak opts for, will not make much difference: The result is likely to be the same. If the opinion polls are correct, Keir Starmer will become UK Prime Minister in 2024.

It has been quite an ascent for Mr Starmer; he has had to work hard at winning popular approval. Even now, substantially ahead in the ratings, he does not attract widespread acclaim – not like Tony Blair did, in 1997.

Back then, the nation was ready and willing for change. The charismatic, youthful Mr Blair was its chosen vehicle. The country wants a similar shift again, but the public have not warmed to Mr Starmer, same as they did to Mr Blair.

Latterly, though, the very traits that held Mr Starmer back – caution, solidity, boring in other words – have switched to positive. They are now seen as the very virtues desired in the next UK leader.

Years of Tory turmoil have led to a widespread craving for dependability. Step forward, reassuringly low-key Mr Starmer.

Not that the Labour leader is going to find it plain-sailing. His room for manoeuvre will be tight. There is simply not enough money available for him to pursue the sort of corrective policies he would like to.

He inherits an economy that is flat – unless Mr Sunak really does make some progress on the growth front, but it is hard to see that occurring, not while there is still war in Ukraine and heightened tension and volatility in the Middle East. That said, Britain is in better shape than some of its European neighbours. Its economy emerged quicker from the pandemic and proved surprisingly resilient to the outbreak.

One consequence is that talk of rejoining the EU is not as vocal as it was. It is an ever-present, but the economic woes of Germany in particular have provided pause for thought.

A new administration, not tainted by being from the party that steered Brexit, will be able to establish closer relations with the EU. It is also in the bloc’s interest to have a trusted, working, relationship with the UK – the Union is realising it is also missing the UK as much as the UK misses them.

Uncertainty internationally is set to continue. If anything it will worsen as the US holds its own election. At present, the prospect of an ageing Joe Biden or a vengeful, possibly even jailed, Donald Trump emerging victorious is almost too unpalatable to contemplate.

With Mr Biden the question will be about his grip and with that America’s authority on the world stage; with Mr Trump, it is more to do with what is in his head and the policies he plans to enact. Where, for instance, will he take the US on climate change? On relations with China?

There seems to be no alternative than a run-off between these two. Next year may well go down in history as marking the nadir of US politics.

On that note, all that remains is to say Happy New Year. But, to quote the lyrics of the song chosen by Mr Blair and his team as their rallying cry in 1997: “Things can only get better”. Here’s hoping.

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.

- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law

Results

5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash

6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar

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Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Saudi National Day

Why the UAE has many reasons to celebrate its closest friend and ally

2.0

Director: S Shankar

Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films

Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey

Rating: 3.5/5 stars

Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk

“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”

“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”

“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”

“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”

Three ways to boost your credit score

Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:

1. Make sure you make your payments on time;

2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;

3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.