Prime Minister Rishi Sunak subtly hints at election timing amid a backdrop of eager journalists, capturing a moment of political suspense at the heart of British governance. PA
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak subtly hints at election timing amid a backdrop of eager journalists, capturing a moment of political suspense at the heart of British governance. PA
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak subtly hints at election timing amid a backdrop of eager journalists, capturing a moment of political suspense at the heart of British governance. PA
Chris Blackhurst is a former editor of The Independent, based in London
December 26, 2023
He liked his little joke, did Rishi Sunak. Knowing they were desperate for the date of the next general election the Prime Minister told the assembled journalists at a press conference that it would be, wait for it … in 2024.
Of course, he never would tell them the exact day, just like that. Still, he enjoyed seeing their crestfallen faces.
While the media was disappointed, it was news, nevertheless. We now know the UK general election will not be in January 2025, the final date by which Mr Sunak is required to go to the country.
Appealing to him as it is, to remain in power for absolutely as long as possible, January would entail campaigning over Christmas and New Year, at a period when the British weather is usually grim and daylight hours short.
Some time next year, it is then. The favourite slot is the autumn, after the annual party conference. The theory is that Mr Sunak will send the activists on their way with a rousing speech, one which will reference lasting reforms to gambling, smoking, education. Migration will be in check, the economy will be growing, taxes lower, British pride will be restored.
It is his intention that this expounding of “Sunakism” will act as a springboard to victory. Or, at least if he loses, it will form his legacy.
In order for his policies to have a chance and to take hold, therefore, he requires time – hence holding a national ballot towards the end of the year.
There is another argument, that says Mr Sunak could go to the country earlier. By waiting, more people will be caught paying higher mortgages. Interest rates will still be raised as next year inflation proves stubborn to dislodge. As mortgage-holders come off fixed-rate loans, they will be hit with increased borrowing payments. Hundreds of thousands will be snared, many of them homeowning natural Tory supporters.
Mr Sunak, so this claim goes, should alight on an early date, in April or May. But in May, there are the local elections that could prove embarrassing for the Tories. One suggestion, canvassed at Westminster, is that the general and local polls are held on the same day.
In any event, whichever day Mr Sunak opts for, will not make much difference: The result is likely to be the same. If the opinion polls are correct, Keir Starmer will become UK Prime Minister in 2024.
Rishi Sunak has been British Prime Minister for one year. Here The National looks back at his time in No 10 Downing Street. Getty Images
Mr Sunak after being announced as winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest on October 24. Getty Images
King Charles III welcomes Mr Sunak to Buckingham Palace where he invited him to become Prime Minister. Getty Images
The new Prime Minister makes a speech outside No 10. Getty Images
Mr Sunak arrives at No 10 for the first time as Prime Minister. Photo: Simon Walker/ No 10 Downing Street
Mr Sunak holds his first cabinet meeting. Getty Images
Mr Sunak hosts a reception to celebrate Diwali at No 10. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
A visit to Croydon University Hospital, south London. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty with Nova, their pet Labrador. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
The Prime Minister with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in the Cabinet Room at No 10. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
King Charles, Mr Sunak, fashion designer Stella McCartney and US climate envoy John Kerry at Buckingham Palace before Cop27. Getty Images
French President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Sunak at Cop27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Getty Images
Mr Sunak during a call to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from his office. Photo: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
On Remembrance Sunday at the Cenotaph in London. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Mr Sunak with journalists on a flight to Bali for the G20 summit. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
With Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a meeting at the G20 in Nusa Dua, Indonesia. Getty Images
Mr Sunak with US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Getty Images
Mr Sunak meets rescue teams during his visit to Ukraine. Photo: No 10 Downing Street
Mr Sunak and his wife outside No 10 as the Christmas lights are turned on. Getty Images
With youth footballers from Wales and England to watch the World Cup match between the two nations. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Reading congratulations cards from members of the public after being appointed. Photo: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
At RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire after the announcement that Britain will develop next-generation fighter jets with Italy and Japan. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on a plane to Tallinn. Getty Images
The Prime Minister with troops at the Tapa military base, Estonia. Getty Images
The photo on Mr Sunak's official Christmas card. Photo: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Serving breakfast on a visit to The Passage homeless shelter in London just before Christmas. Photo: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
Making his first major domestic speech of the year. Getty Images
Toasting marshmallows on a visit to the Sea Scouts community group in Muirtown near Inverness. Getty Images
A Q&A session at The Platform in Morecambe, Lancashire, after a community visit to the Eden Project North. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt at Accrington Market Hall with local MP Sara Britcliffe to announce projects under the levelling-up fund. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and Mr Zelenskyy meet Ukrainian troops being trained to command Challenger 2 tanks at a military facility in Lulworth, Dorset. Getty Images
With EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference at Windsor Guildhall. Getty Images
Speaking at a press conference following the launch of new legislation on migrant channel crossings at Downing Street. Getty Images
Mr Biden meets Mr Sunak during the 25th anniversary commemorations of the "Good Friday Agreement" in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Getty Images
Mr Sunak holds a plate of sandwiches for US First Lady Jill Biden at Downing Street to celebrate King Charles' coronation. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and his wife Mrs Murty ahead of the G7 Summit, in Hiroshima, Japan. Getty Images
Mr Sunak with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during their bilateral meeting in Hiroshima ahead of the G7 Summit. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and Mr Zelenskyy look out towards trees planted by Winston Churchill as they walk in the garden at Chequers. Getty Images
Mr Sunak onboard Border Agency cutter HMC Seeker during a visit to Dover. Getty Images
Mr Sunak cheers during the Ashes Test match between England and Australia at Lord's Cricket Ground. Getty Images
In a Special Branch police vehicle used to transport former Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, in Bexley. Getty Images
Mr Sunak and his wife Mrs Murty offer prayers as they visit the Akshardham Hindu Temple in New Delhi, India. Getty Images
Mr Sunak meets the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu. No 10 Downing Street
It has been quite an ascent for Mr Starmer; he has had to work hard at winning popular approval. Even now, substantially ahead in the ratings, he does not attract widespread acclaim – not like Tony Blair did, in 1997.
Back then, the nation was ready and willing for change. The charismatic, youthful Mr Blair was its chosen vehicle. The country wants a similar shift again, but the public have not warmed to Mr Starmer, same as they did to Mr Blair.
Latterly, though, the very traits that held Mr Starmer back – caution, solidity, boring in other words – have switched to positive. They are now seen as the very virtues desired in the next UK leader.
Years of Tory turmoil have led to a widespread craving for dependability. Step forward, reassuringly low-key Mr Starmer.
Not that the Labour leader is going to find it plain-sailing. His room for manoeuvre will be tight. There is simply not enough money available for him to pursue the sort of corrective policies he would like to.
Keir Starmer has been the Labour party's leader since 2020, and is now the UK's prime minister. Here The National looks back through his political career. Getty Images
Mr Starmer speaking in Westminster, London, in May after Rishi Sunak announced the general election for July 4. AP
Mr Starmer speaks to Labour supporters at Harlow Town Football Club's stadium in Essex, on the eve of local elections in May. Getty Images
Mr Starmer talks to Dan Poulter at the Francis Crick Institute in London in April, after the MP had defected from the Conservative Party to Labour. Getty Images
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan and Mr Starmer during the launch of Mr Khan's mayoral re-election campaign in March, which proved successful. Getty Images
Mr Starmer addresses the Labour Business Conference in London in February. Getty Images
Mr Starmer and Mr Sunak at the Palace of Westminster for the State Opening of Parliament in November 2023. Getty Images
Mr Starmer addresses delegates at the National Annual Women's Conference in Liverpool in October 2023. Getty Images
Mr Starmer with his shadow cabinet in London in September 2023. Getty Images
Mr Starmer speaks to supporters in Chatham after a Labour win in local elections in May 2023. Getty Images
Joining party activists at a national phone bank on local elections day in London in May 2023. Getty Images
Mr Starmer meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Speaker's House in the Palace of Westminster, London, in February 2023. Getty Images
The Labour leader and his wife Victoria leave the stage after his speech at the party conference in Liverpool in September 2022. Getty Images
Mr Starmer and then-UK prime minister Liz Truss leave the Palace of Westminster in September 2022. Getty Images
With former Labour prime ministers Tony Blair, centre, and Gordon Brown, right, at St James's Palace, London, where King Charles III was formally proclaimed monarch in September 2022. Getty Images
Mr Starmer and then-prime minister Boris Johnson attend the State Opening of Parliament in May 2022. Getty Images
Mr Starmer makes his keynote speech to the Labour conference for the first time as party leader in September 2021 in Brighton. Getty Images
The gloves are on during a visit to the Vulcan Boxing Club in Hull, East Yorkshire, in April 2021. Getty Images
Mr Starmer in talks with care home workers and family members of residents at Cafe 1899 in Gedling Country Park during the Covid-19 pandemic in July 2020. Getty Images
Mr Starmer, then-shadow secretary of state for exiting the EU, addresses the audience at a hustings in March 2020 in Dudley. Getty Images
Mr Starmer and then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn talk to the media at the EU Commission headquarters in March 2019 in Brussels. Getty Images
Mr Starmer delivers a speech on Labour's Brexit policy at the Institute of Civil Engineers in London in April 2017. Getty Images
Holding a press conference as Director of Public Prosecutions to outline new guidelines on assisted suicide, in London in September 2009. Getty Images
Human rights advisers Mr Starmer and Jane Gordon with the Northern Ireland Policing Board annual human rights report 2006, at the Dunadry Hotel in Co Antrim. Getty Images
He inherits an economy that is flat – unless Mr Sunak really does make some progress on the growth front, but it is hard to see that occurring, not while there is still war in Ukraine and heightened tension and volatility in the Middle East. That said, Britain is in better shape than some of its European neighbours. Its economy emerged quicker from the pandemic and proved surprisingly resilient to the outbreak.
One consequence is that talk of rejoining the EU is not as vocal as it was. It is an ever-present, but the economic woes of Germany in particular have provided pause for thought.
A new administration, not tainted by being from the party that steered Brexit, will be able to establish closer relations with the EU. It is also in the bloc’s interest to have a trusted, working, relationship with the UK – the Union is realising it is also missing the UK as much as the UK misses them.
Uncertainty internationally is set to continue. If anything it will worsen as the US holds its own election. At present, the prospect of an ageing Joe Biden or a vengeful, possibly even jailed, Donald Trump emerging victorious is almost too unpalatable to contemplate.
With Mr Biden the question will be about his grip and with that America’s authority on the world stage; with Mr Trump, it is more to do with what is in his head and the policies he plans to enact. Where, for instance, will he take the US on climate change? On relations with China?
There seems to be no alternative than a run-off between these two. Next year may well go down in history as marking the nadir of US politics.
On that note, all that remains is to say Happy New Year. But, to quote the lyrics of the song chosen by Mr Blair and his team as their rallying cry in 1997: “Things can only get better”. Here’s hoping.
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
An arms embargo
A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
