Trump returns to a changed Gulf: How the region has evolved since 2017


Vanessa Ghanem
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When US President Donald Trump visited the Gulf in 2017, he was welcomed with swords, spectacle and strategic assurances. Back then, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were key pillars of a region deeply tied to Washington’s security umbrella.

Now, as Mr Trump prepares to make the first official foreign trip of his second term, he returns to a transformed peninsula – one that has become more self-assured and strategically diversified.

Observers say he will find a Gulf that has shifted economically and diplomatically since his 2017 visit. While the US remains a primary defence partner, it is no longer the sole power shaping the region. Beijing, Brussels, New Delhi and Moscow are now part of a multipolar matrix that Gulf capitals navigate with increasing confidence.

Mr Trump’s visit to Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi comes at a moment when these countries are projecting influence well beyond their borders. From brokering ceasefires, mediating one crisis after another and hosting global investment forums, Gulf states have emerged as active players and architects of a new regional order. They have matured geopolitically, becoming multi-aligned power centres with global ambitions.

“The Gulf has now more options in terms of strategic partners, investment partners and commercial and trade partners,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University.

Yet, while economic ties to China and the East have grown, analysts argue that the US remains the Gulf’s principal military and security guarantor.

“Find me another security partner that has dozens of thousands of troops and powerful assets in the region and that can surge at a moment’s notice to deal with any emerging military contingency and crisis,” Bilal Saab, senior managing director of Trends US and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, told The National. “I’m not convinced there’s another security partner like the US.”

Last week, the State Department approved a possible foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of AIM-120C-8 advanced medium range air-to-air missiles and related support for $3.5 billion, the Pentagon said in a statement. This came after Reuters reported the US was poised to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 billion during Mr Trump's visit to the kingdom.

Major investment agreements are also expected to headline the President’s agenda. Mr Trump said Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest “$1 trillion in our economy", though Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has only confirmed a pledge of $600 billion. Some say Riyadh may struggle to deliver on such a pledge, given the dip in oil prices.

Brent crude prices dropped to under $60 per barrel this week, well below the $100 price Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.

Qatar and the UAE are also touting ambitious investment plans of their own. The UAE has announced a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework targeting US-based infrastructure, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing and natural gas.

Saudi Arabia

In 2017, Prince Mohammed was a newly ascendant force, consolidating power at home and capturing headlines abroad with sweeping reform plans and controversial moves. Today, the Crown Prince is a more seasoned leader.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with US President Donald Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, in 2019. Reuters
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with US President Donald Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, in 2019. Reuters

Riyadh has positioned itself as a diplomatic hub, mediating in conflicts and leading a pragmatic realignment in the Middle East. The Saudi capital is now the place to be for leaders, chief executives and other players.

The kingdom this year hosted separate US talks with Ukraine and Russia. The Riyadh meeting in February was the first high-level, in-person encounter between Russia and the US since the Ukraine war began.

One priority on Mr Trump’s agenda, according to sources, is to push for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. But Riyadh continues to maintain that establishing ties with Israel is contingent on a Palestinian state being established. Saudi officials have emphasised that, without a clear and irreversible path to Palestinian statehood, establishing ties with Israel is “off the table”. That stance suggests that Mr Trump may face greater resistance than he did in his first term.

Still, it remains possible, said Mr Saab. “But it will require addressing the Israeli people and convincing them that the path forward for their country and its security is without this far-right government," he added.

Many observers, though, say that the American President will press ahead with regional initiatives, with or without Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

UAE

The UAE has parlayed its early embrace of globalisation into a commanding role on the world stage. In 2017, it was already punching above its weight. In 2025, it is a regional heavyweight.

From hosting the Cop28 climate change summit to leading AI innovation and attracting capital from Asia, Africa and the West, the Emirates has become a critical node in the global economy. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are steering billions into climate tech and semiconductors, while Dubai remains a magnet for billionaires, digital nomads and hedge funds.

Geopolitically, the UAE has taken a hedging approach, maintaining robust ties with the US while deepening relations with China, Russia and India. It also agreed with the EU to launch free trade talks and has been mediating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.

“Gulf states feel comfortable sitting next to America for the time being and for the foreseeable future,” said Dr Abdulla, adding that the UAE and its neighbours are simultaneously looking East. “Asia is the continent of the future," he noted.

“The UAE and other Gulf nations have recognised the importance of Asia … they are becoming more aware of their Asian affinity and identity than they were eight years ago."

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are incrementally buying more military equipment from non-US suppliers, said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"This includes Turkish and Chinese UAVs, South Korean surface-to-air missiles, and, in the UAE's case, Chinese L-15 trainer jets and Russia's point defence system Pantsir," he added. "Nevertheless, the Arab Gulf states remain western-oriented on major air domain purchases, preferring US and European systems."

  • US President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi place their hands on an illuminated globe during the inauguration ceremony of the Global Centre for Combating Extremist Ideology in Riyadh. Getty Images
    US President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi place their hands on an illuminated globe during the inauguration ceremony of the Global Centre for Combating Extremist Ideology in Riyadh. Getty Images
  • Front row, left to right, President Sheikh Mohamed, Mr Trump, King Salman, and Jordan's King Abdullah II, with Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim, far left, at the Arab-Islamic-American Summit in Riyadh. Reuters
    Front row, left to right, President Sheikh Mohamed, Mr Trump, King Salman, and Jordan's King Abdullah II, with Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim, far left, at the Arab-Islamic-American Summit in Riyadh. Reuters
  • King Salman and Mr Trump. Reuters
    King Salman and Mr Trump. Reuters
  • Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Mr Trump and former White House senior advisor Jared Kushner. Reuters
    Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Mr Trump and former White House senior advisor Jared Kushner. Reuters
  • Mr Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, as their wives Sara Netanyahu and Melania Trump walk behind, in Tel Aviv. Reuters
    Mr Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, as their wives Sara Netanyahu and Melania Trump walk behind, in Tel Aviv. Reuters
  • Mr Trump meets with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Riyadh. Reuters
    Mr Trump meets with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Riyadh. Reuters
  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed with Mr Kushner and his wife Ivanka Trump at the Global Centre for Combatting Extremist Ideology in Riyadh. Reuters
    Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed with Mr Kushner and his wife Ivanka Trump at the Global Centre for Combatting Extremist Ideology in Riyadh. Reuters
  • Mr and Mrs Trump board Air Force One to depart for Israel from King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Reuters
    Mr and Mrs Trump board Air Force One to depart for Israel from King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Reuters

Qatar

Doha has become a mediator for some of the world’s thorniest conflicts. Qatar has hosted negotiations involving Hamas, the Taliban, and US and EU officials, positioning itself as a unique diplomatic conduit. Its ties to Islamist groups, once viewed as liabilities, are now tools of engagement. During the ongoing Gaza war, Qatar has played a central role in brokering ceasefire proposals and humanitarian corridors.

Its foreign policy clout is backed by a strong economic foundation, including partnerships with European energy companies and long-term LNG deals with Asian buyers. Qatar has managed to retain close ties with Washington while expanding its diplomatic reach.

For Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the US remains a key ally, but not the only one. This time, Mr Trump is visiting a geopolitical crossroads with its own agenda.

"The Arab Gulf states cannot afford to choose between the US, their main and preferred security partner, China, their top trading partner, and Russia, their partner in managing Opec+," said Mr Alhasan. "They are actively positioning themselves as a place for doing business with everyone even as the global economy bifurcates between the US and China."

A Gulf-US summit is expected to take place in Riyadh next week during Mr Trump's trip. Saudi Arabia's King Salman has invited leaders of the GCC to attend the meeting, per sources.

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Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing

In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.

While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.

In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all). 

“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”

Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.

"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”

2022:  Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency

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Timeline

1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line

1962
250 GTO is unveiled

1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company

1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens

1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made

1987
F40 launched

1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent

2002
The Enzo model is announced

2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi

2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled

2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives

2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company

2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street

2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary

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