When Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara was considering sending tanks and troops to the mostly Druze province of Sweida amid unrest last month, Interior Minister Anas Khattab assured him the situation would be brought under control within hours.
Mr Al Shara took the advice of Mr Khattab over that of Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani, who had been more cautious of another confrontation with the Druze because of the possibility of Israeli attacks. Israel struck Syria in April, saying that it is acting in defence of the Druze.
The insights were provided by a source inside Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a group to which the three men belonged. HTS led the offensive that toppled former president Bashar Al Assad in December.
“Instead of a promenade, we lost hundreds of men and Israel kicked us out of Sweida,” the source said. He expected Israel to try to extend its reach by carving out a land link directly to Sweida. “If the Israelis do that, it would mean the whole of the south has been lost.”
The operation in Sweida, where clashes involved Druze fighters, armed Bedouin and security troops, was the costliest violence for the government since it assumed power. It also raised fear among other minorities, especially after the mass killings of Alawite civilians in March, and cast doubt on Mr Al Shara’s ability to unify the country after a 13-year civil war under the previous regime.
Before Israel launched its strikes, Syrian and Israeli officials had reportedly met in Baku, Azerbaijan, in a process supervised by the US and Turkey that aimed to end a seven-decade state of war. The strikes were probably a “misunderstanding” between Damascus and Israel, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
In May, Israel’s air force bombed pro-government militias near Damascus and an area just next to the presidential palace. Israel claimed its attacks were carried out in defence of the Druze in Sweida. The sect has members in countries including Jordan and Israel.
Mr Khattab presented the Sweida operation as a march, having the support of a Druze militia chief in the province. Mr Khattab cast Laith Al Balous as having 5,000 men under his command, thus depriving Israel of a rationale to intervene in Sweida, the source said.
Mr Balous also opposed Druze spiritual leader Hikmat Al Hijri, who had accused the government of extremism and refused to let Mr Al Shara send security forces to Sweida unless they were from the city itself and their names had been agreed on first.
“Balous turned out to be a dud, Khattab overestimated his strength," the source said. The source pointed out that the violence in the province, including executions of civilians and the shaving off of Druze men’s moustaches, a symbol of pride, swiftly eroded Mr Balous‘s support in the community.
Mr Khattab also held sway, having served as chief HTS enforcer, preceding Mr Al Shara’s leadership of the group, of an 11-day offensive from the northern province of Idlib, which ultimately led to the Assad regime’s downfall in Damascus.
Mr Khattab led the elimination of rival militants, as HTS established a de facto mini state in Idlib. “Khattab was the iron striking hand. He is one of the few real decision makers in the system,” the source said.
Idlib model
Karim Bitar, professor of international relations at St Joseph University of Beirut, said Mr Al Shara and his aides “appear to be attempting to replicate the Idlib model across Syria”. Idlib was a “unique case”, he said. ”Given Syria’s extraordinary diversity, this approach is unlikely to succeed.”
In Sweida, “an unholy alliance” between Israel and former Assad loyalists has weaponised Druze fears, risking broader ethnic fragmentation, Prof Bitar said. Such a scenario would be “disastrous” for Syria and could destabilise Lebanon, a country whose political fortunes have been tied to Syria since the two gained independence from France in the 1940s.
The violence has transformed into low-intensity warfare between Druze defenders of Sweida and security forces and auxiliaries surrounding the city. They include thousands of members of tribes from eastern Syria, who have extensions in neighbouring Jordan.
Their deployment has alarmed Jordan, observers say. “It is seen as contradictory to Al Shara’s commitment to regional stabilisation,” a source in the kingdom said. However, Jordan had joined Arab countries and Turkey in condemning the Israeli strikes and supporting Mr Al Shara’s commitment to “security and the rule of law throughout Syria”.
The clashes could also undermine a drive by many European governments to return Syrian refugees, a main goal behind a rush to build up ties with Mr Al Shara and provide funding for recovery projects.
A European official who recently visited the region to discuss the situation in Syria expected the flow of returning refugees to remain at a trickle, although pressure by some host governments on the refugees has been mounting. The Sweida crisis has provided them with “more ammunition to resort to the courts and say Syria is not safe", the official said.
A diplomatic source at the UN said there remains no alternative for Mr Al Shara, given centrists in Syria have been unable ”to have a structured political presence". “Can they provide political guidance for the country? I don’t think they can,” the source said.
Charles Lister, director of the Syria and counterterrorism and extremism programmes at the Middle East Institute, said international support remained firm because foreign powers realise Mr Al Shara has to find the balance between satisfying his Sunni base, absorption of minorities and US expectations for a security agreement with Israel.
“The embrace of minorities is a … double-edged sword in many respects,” Mr Lister said, referring to Sunnis who expect dividends after decades of dispossession under Al Assad Alawite rule.
However, US media has reported more splits in Congress over the repeal of the 2019 Caesar Act, the source of major sanctions on Syria, after an American Druze was killed in Sweida.
A Syrian politician who met members of Congress last week said lobbyists for Israel had started efforts to counter the administration's support for Mr Al Shara, including defeating a proposal to repeal the Caesar Act. In May, US President Donald Trump started establishing ties with Syria with the aim of making Damascus a counter-terrorism partner and a potential member of the Abraham Accords.
”Congress realise that they should work with the new government because it represents the majority,” the Syrian politician said. “But they have not seen any progress on inclusion of minorities. The whole of the new security forces are Sunni and they are attacking minorities."
