Lebanon could be on the brink of a “massive” new refugee crisis if massacres of the Alawite minority in Syria continue, Lebanese MP Haidar Nasser has told The National.
Independent MP Mr Nasser, who comes from the Alawite community in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, has been co-ordinating with the Lebanese army to maintain order in the north since September, when he met former army commander Joseph Aoun – now the country's President. The war between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah was raging at the time, but the army has long played a leading role in aiming to stabilise northern communities in Lebanon.
Lebanon has a small indigenous Alawite community, thought to number about 120,000 people. At least 10,000 members of the community in Syria have fled across the border into Lebanon over the past week after facing targeted killings by forces aligned with the new self-declared Syrian government. There are about four million Alawites in Syria – out of a total population of around 25 million people.
Mr Nasser said Alawites in Syria were also victims of former president Bashar Al Assad, a member of the community who was deposed in December.
“Syria’s Alawite community lost a significant percentage of its population during 14 years of war. So, they have already paid for their choice to support Assad,” said Mr Nasser.
“They have paid for their choice when Assad left the country with all his money after the economy collapsed. Then security forces massacred Alawites as if they are all responsible for what Assad did. What is more sad is that the close circle of Assad, some Alawites, Druze, Christians and some Sunnis, have left the country with all their money.”
The UN said recent attacks on civilians in Syria's coastal region, overwhelmingly against Alawites, “appear to have been carried out on a sectarian basis, in Tartus, Latakia and Hama governorates”. The violence began on March 6 after Assad regime loyalists launched attacks on forces of the new Syrian government in the area. Fighting involved “unidentified armed individuals, members of armed groups allegedly supporting the caretaker authorities’ security forces, and by elements associated with the former government”, according to UN monitors.
According to a preliminary report by the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), 961 people were killed between March 6 and March 13, mainly Alawites, in the coastal area and Hama province.
Mr Nasser said that “we have seen children who have been killed, and the elderly … it’s not acceptable to kill them. The international community, the US, European countries, should intervene to stop this.”
Syria's interim President Ahmad Al Shara, leader of the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham group, which formerly had ties to Al Qaeda, must “make good steps towards the Alawites”, said Mr Nasser. “He should start by doing real investigations of what happened in the coastal massacres, not just statements in the media. We’re going to see a new holocaust if it continues.”
He warns that the current estimate of 10,000 Alawite refugees in Syria could swell to civil war levels. Around 1.5 million Syrians fled to Lebanon during the civil war, putting huge strain on the country’s weak economy.
Lebanon's endless crisis
Today, Lebanon is grappling with the costs of the Israel-Hezbollah war, with the World Bank estimating that about $11 billion will be needed for recovery and reconstruction. The country was already struggling with an economic collapse caused by political mismanagement and corruption. The arrival of Syrian refugees placed a further strain on the economy – including hyperinflation – and also raised social tensions. The pandemic dealt a further blow, accompanied by the August 2020 Beirut port blast – which killed more than 200 people and devastated parts of the capital, when warehouses full of fertiliser exploded.
This new influx Alawite Syrian civilians into northern Lebanon has raised fresh fears of social tensions, particularly in Tripoli where Sunni and Alawite militias have clashed sporadically for decades since the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.
“We have some fears, because of this security issue in Tripoli; it could be used by external parties to explode the situation further,” said Mr Nasser, although his hometown has seen positive intercommunal relations between Sunnis and other communities and a determination not to revisit mistakes of the past.
But peace cannot be guaranteed, Mr Nasser says, without urgent international intervention to help marginalised communities in Tripoli and in the Shiite majority war-damaged south where Hezbollah has held sway, both areas with persistent high unemployment.
“Tripoli is always forgotten. If you really want to rebuild Lebanon, I think we should start from Tripoli. Poverty is the mother of all of all problems, and Tripoli has suffered poverty for decades. And no one is really willing to solve this problem.”
Weapons have flooded into Lebanon since the fall of the Assad regime but Mr Nasser warns they have long been widely available in Tripoli, where “people can be going hungry, but still, they have guns”.
“We believe that the new President, Joseph Aoun, can play a good role in rebuilding Lebanon,” said Mr Nasser. “He played a major role in stabilising the situation during those years where we had a lot of problems, starting from the economic crisis in 2019 that was followed by Covid pandemic, followed by the explosion in Beirut.
“During all those years, General Aoun played a major role in stabilising the situation and preventing a new civil war. Starting from this perspective, I think he’ll play a major role in rebuilding the new Lebanon.”
On Thursday, the Lebanese government appointed Brig Gen Rodolphe Haykal to lead the army, which is currently expanding recruitment. Experts have long hoped that the cash-strapped military could help shore up state power, after years of political deadlock and rising Hezbollah power.
Along with Mr Aoun taking office, the appointment in January of Nawaf Salam, a former president of the International Court of Justice, as Prime Minister raised hopes further that Lebanon could be turning a corner.
“The Lebanese army needs a lot of support, especially as we start implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701,” Mr Nasser said.
This UN-led effort was intended resolve the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Never fully implemented, under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah was to withdraw to north of the Litani River and Israel to remove its forces, while UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese army would be the only military presence south of the Litani.
“We need to increase Lebanese army members, adding about 6,000 soldiers. And we need international support in order to prepare them to control the border with Israel.”
Mr Nasser says strengthening the state armed forces is a critical step regionally, in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, where Mr Al Shara must show he is able to control violent factions.
“Al Shara can contain the violence to some extent – at least temporarily,” said Federico Manfredi Firmian, an expert on militant groups in Syria and a lecturer in political science at Sciences Po university in Paris.
“However, his concern is not the well-being of Alawites but his own grip on power. In 2012, his former organisation – Jabhat Al Nusra – explicitly threatened the entire Alawite community, referring to them in sectarian terms as 'Nusayris' and framing them as enemies. This history remains relevant today, as members of his organisation and other Islamist factions now play leading roles in Syria’s new security forces,” Mr Manfredi Firmian said.
Mr Nasser says Mr Al Shara needs to support his words with firm actions.
“He should take serious steps, he should also encourage Alawites to participate in building a new Syria. Instead, he has fired Alawites from government jobs. By contrast in Lebanon, we are on good terms as Alawites and Sunnis, especially in Tripoli. We have a lot of discussions and are doing our best to prevent any escalation across the Syrian border.”
Even if the killings can be curtailed for now, Mr Manfredi Firmian is not hopeful about the new government in Damascus.
“What matters to Al Shara now is consolidating his rule,” said Mr Manfredi Firmian. “The violence in Latakia undermines his image as a leader in control and raises serious questions about the influence of hardliners within Syria’s security apparatus. He has a clear incentive to rein in the bloodshed, but that does not mean he will hold perpetrators accountable – especially when they come from the ranks of his own organisation or allied factions.”
For long-term regional security, Mr Nasser says there could be regional dialogue for ensuring non-state groups can be reined in.
Many Lebanese were furious about Hezbollah’s decision to intervene in the Israel-Gaza crisis by launching attacks into Israel. But most did not support the devastating armed conflict that followed. Iraq, likewise, has struggled to control powerful Iran-backed armed groups which have nearly turned the country into a war zone between US forces and the militias.
“Regarding Iraq and Lebanon, sincere discussion should be started,” said Mr Nasser. “Who should have monopoly over the decision to start a war or not?
“We have a lot of issues to discuss between us as Lebanese. We cannot rebuild our future with the same problems from the past.”
