Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
Iran is "certain" to retaliate against Israel and may use Iraqi territory to launch an attack, following a recent wave of strikes on Iranian ballistic missile and drone sites.
“The Iranian response to Israeli aggression is certain," Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, told Al Mayadeen, a news outlet linked to Lebanese Hezbollah on Thursday. "For over 40 years, we have not allowed a single attack to go unanswered and we can destroy everything Israel has."
The strikes could be launched from Iraq, US news website Axios quoted two Israeli intelligence officials as saying in a report. Their statement followed a series of warnings from Iran that it was planning a counterattack. Iran and Israel have historically clashed through proxy groups and by carrying out assassinations.
Israel killed two Iranian generals in Damascus in April, leading to a major ballistic missile and drone attack on Israel 12 days later. Another ballistic missile attack on Israel was launched on October 1, in retaliation for the killing of Iranian allies, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Carrying out an attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another direct Israeli attack on Iran, Axios reported. Israel would almost certainly strike targets in Iraq in response, with air strikes, thought to be Israeli, reportedly killing 10 militia fighters in Syria last month.
While Iran has historically trained and armed Iraqi militias in a government-linked umbrella organisation, the Popular Mobilisation Forces, some of the groups date back to the Iran-Iraq War and were revived to fight against US and British forces following the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
A subset of these groups, which call themselves the Islamic Resistance, have joined Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels in launching attacks on Israel. While the PMF is led by Iran-backed leaders, a small number of groups within the umbrella group do not answer to Tehran.
But PMF groups typically receive fewer long-range heavy weapons, including drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, compared with Iran’s other militia allies. The Houthis have disrupted trade in the Red Sea with a steady stream of attacks on shipping, while Hezbollah has killed more than 60 Israeli citizens, about half of them soldiers, through rocket, drone and missile attacks launched since October 8, 2023, according to AP.
Long-range weapons are necessary to strike Israel and, although Iraqi militias have claimed responsibility for drone attacks on Israeli cities, there have been few of those, compared with the waves of attacks carried out by Hezbollah and the Houthis. Most have been ineffective, although a drone attack blamed on the Islamic Resistance killed two Israeli soldiers in the occupied Golan Heights on October 4.
Iraq’s government is trying to rein in the actions of the PMF, to avoid the country being dragged into a war, despite the group having a budget of $2.6 billion, in addition to billions of dollars from official and unofficial businesses. The force is about half the size of the Iraqi army, with about 240,000 members.
"Those groups who have the rockets and drones should go to Gaza and Lebanon to fight Israel, rather than pushing Iraq towards destruction," Abdul Ameer Thuaiban, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, told Reuters.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
