As protesters torched government buildings and marched through the streets of Tehran demanding political reforms, a seasoned regional mediator arrived in Iran over the weekend at a critical moment for the Islamic Republic.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi visited Tehran on Saturday, holding meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
“Just concluded a productive day in Tehran,” Mr Al Busaidi wrote in a post on X on Saturday. He said he held a “substantive exchange of views on key issues of mutual concern” with Iranian officials.
“We remain in close and regular consultation in support of peace, regional stability and constructive engagement,” he added.
The visit came at a time when the Iranian regime was struggling to contain nationwide unrest, as protests over economic hardship morphed into the biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.
Iran’s leadership faces mounting pressure from both a population frustrated with soaring inflation, unemployment and currency devaluation and a US administration threatening to take military action in response to an increasingly heavy-handed crackdown on demonstrators.
At least 646 people have been killed, including nine children, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said on Monday.
While the ruling regime insisted on Monday that “the situation has come under total control”, prolonged internet blackouts left Iranians abroad cut off from their families and offered little clarity on whether authorities in Tehran had indeed quelled the violence.
Oman's doctrine
Mr Al Busaidi’s visit to the Iranian capital drew sharp criticism from opponents of the Islamic Republic, who accused Muscat of “legitimising” Iran’s leadership amid domestic unrest.
Oman, however, has long adhered to a policy of non-interference in other countries’ affairs. The Sultanate’s diplomacy is state-centric rather than regime-centric, engaging with governments regardless of internal political dynamics – a principle it has consistently applied toward Iran and elsewhere.
"The Omani relationship with Iran, at least in the contemporary era, goes back to Sultan Qaboos and the Shah," Marc Sievers, former US Ambassador to Oman, told The National, referring to Oman's ruler from 1970 until 2020 and Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was the monarch of Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
"The Shah sent forces to help put down the Dhofar Rebellion in the south when Qaboos first became Sultan. That created a certain special relationship between Oman and Iran that continued through the revolution," he said.
While the purpose of Mr Al Busaidi's visit was not officially disclosed, observers and diplomatic sources called it “sensitive”, suggesting the Omani minister may have conferred with Washington first and carried messages related to the future of talks with Tehran after months of diplomatic deadlock.
According to the sources, Oman has been doing extensive behind-the-scenes work between the US and Iran, hoping to avoid what they described as counterproductive US strikes.
"Muscat has a history of engaging Tehran and serving as a channel between the United States and Iran," said Mr Sievers. "It may be that the Iranians invited him [Mr Al Busaidi], and it’s entirely possible that he brought a message back to Washington."
Shortly afterward, US President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington. “The leaders of Iran called. They want to negotiate. I think they're tired of being beat up by the United States,” Mr Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday.
A narrow diplomatic opening
Oman has long served as a discreet interlocutor between Washington and Tehran. Last year, the two sides held several rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Muscat, aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear programme.
Talks, held in Muscat and Rome, progressed through late May, with both sides exchanging proposals and preparing for a sixth round in mid-June. The negotiations, however, were abruptly derailed when Israel launched a major strike on Iranian territory in June, triggering the 12-day Israel-Iran war that later drew in the US, which bombed Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
This led to the suspension of negotiations and the collapse of the diplomatic track.
Mr Araghchi has blamed Israel and the US for the violence in Iran, without offering evidence. He said on Tuesday that Tehran was ready for war but also open to communication.
His comments came amid reports that Mr Trump is weighing military action against Iran in response to the killing of protesters. But Axios reported citing a White House official that the US president has not made a final decision and is reviewing Iranian proposals for negotiations.
"Even if this administration is ready to use military force, they have also showed they are willing to try diplomacy and mediation first," said Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst. "Several US administrations have trusted Muscat to help mediate with Iran. Washington appreciates Oman's de-escalation efforts."
A chance to hang on
Renewed talks could amount to a lifeline for the Iranian regime. Iran's economy has suffered under the sanctions reimposed by Washington in 2018, after Mr Trump in his previous term withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. Those sanctions are yet to be lifted.
The economy was given a jolt when so-called snapback sanctions were initiated by Britain, France and Germany at the UN last September.
Sanctions relief could offer the regime much-needed breathing room, but only if Tehran agrees to Mr Trump’s demands to halt nuclear enrichment and its ballistic missile programme – conditions Iranian officials insist threaten national defence.
Iran’s regional militias – part of what US officials describe as Tehran’s destabilising behaviour in the Middle East – would also have to be addressed, said Riad Kahwaji, a Dubai-based security and defence analyst.
"I’m not sure the regime is able to give up all of that, because doing so would represent a radical shift in its ideology," he said. "However, the regime is now facing unprecedented internal and external threats, and its survival is at stake."
If Iran is willing to make concessions across all three areas, diplomacy could still prevail, said Mr Kahwaji. "The US administration is taking advantage of this unrest to push for concessions."
At the same time, there is now what some see as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to overthrow the Islamic regime, a view shared by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nentanyahu.
The US is likely debating whether to secure a nuclear deal on its own terms or go much further by taking steps that could support regime change, said Ms Jacobs, adding that the latter choice could lead to uncertain and dangerous scenarios.
