Why Gulf states are rushing to shape Syria’s post-sanctions transition

Nation's reintegration into regional diplomacy presents opportunities and risks

Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara, a former rebel fighter, has recast himself as a pragmatist leading a transitional government. Reuters

Arab Gulf states are moving quickly to entrench themselves in Syria’s post-Assad future, launching a surge of diplomatic, financial and infrastructure support.

The aim is to stabilise the war-ravaged country but also reshape the regional balance of power.

Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara was in the UAE this week, his second visit to Abu Dhabi since taking office in January, and the first leg of his second Gulf tour, Syria’s state media agency Sana reported. No other stops have been officially confirmed.

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The talks, including with President Sheikh Mohamed, signalled a deepening ambition to steer Syria’s reconstruction and political reintegration after more than a decade of civil war.

Sheikh Mohamed underscored that Syria’s stability is vital to the broader Middle East and vowed the UAE would “spare no effort” in providing assistance.

Long seen as a pariah under Bashar Al Assad’s rule, Syria is now re-emerging in the region with surprising speed.

Mr Al Shara, a former rebel fighter once linked to extremist factions, has recast himself as a pragmatist leading a transitional government. His administration, backed by a fragile coalition that includes Islamist-leaning Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), has been eager to secure Arab support and foreign investment to jump start the economy and rebuild shattered infrastructure.

The Gulf response has been swift and substantial. In the months following Mr Al Assad’s downfall, Saudi Arabia and Qatar jointly paid off Syria’s $15.5 million debt to the World Bank, unlocking access to critical reconstruction grants. Doha has also pledged $29 million monthly to fund salaries in Syria’s public sector for a three-month period.

In May, the Syrian government signed an agreement with a consortium of companies led by Qatar's UCC Holding to double the country’s power supply.

Emirati firms have also moved early. DP World signed an $800 million agreement to develop the port of Tartus, while prominent Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor publicly urged greater investment in Syria’s recovery.

While much of the international community was cautious at first, the Gulf seized an opportunity.

“Gulf countries are intent on fostering stability in Syria, ensuring the preservation of the country’s territorial integrity and preventing the emergence of dangerous power vacuums,” Giorgio Cafiero, chief executive of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy, told The National.

“In pursuit of a more secure and stable regional environment, the GCC states remain deeply concerned that violence and instability in Syria could spill over into neighbouring Jordan and Iraq, both of which border the Arabian Peninsula.”

He added that co-operation with Syria’s new leadership is also being driven by shared security concerns, particularly over the Captagon drug trade.

Syria became the epicentre of Captagon production under Mr Al Assad, with vast quantities of the amphetamine-like drug smuggled into the Gulf, especially across Saudi Arabia’s long and porous borders.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, receives Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara in Abu Dhabi. Photo: Syrian Presidency

Risk and caution

Iran was a key supporter of Mr Al Assad’s regime throughout the Syrian conflict, supplying crucial military and financial backing for the former president.

Syria served as a central node in Iran’s regional strategy – the so-called Axis of Resistance – linking Tehran to the Mediterranean through Iraq and Lebanon.

While Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, have in recent years pursued diplomatic outreach to Iran, hoping to manage tension through engagement rather than confrontation, deep mistrust lingers. Iran’s backing of armed militias across the region, some of which have targeted Saudi and Emirati territory, continues to pose a major concern.

That anxiety intensified during the 12-day Israel-Iran war, when Tehran launched missiles at the US-operated Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, triggering panic despite warnings issued to Doha.

Although Gulf countries view Syria’s reintegration as a chance to stabilise a regional flashpoint, many remain wary of legitimising a leadership with jihadist roots.

“Through early and strategic engagement with Al Shara’s government in Damascus, and by offering support during Syria’s fragile transitional period, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other GCC members are positioning themselves to exert influence" in Syria, Mr Cafiero said.

“They seek to discourage Al Shara and his inner circle from pursuing any initiatives that might seek to export the ideals or momentum of the HTS-led overthrow of Syria’s former regime to other parts of the region," he added.

Analysts also warn that if reintegration moves too quickly without parallel governing reforms, Damascus may have little incentive to pursue deeper political change.

“If the Damascus administration becomes complacent and does not push ahead with reforming governance in Syria, then sooner or later the country is almost certain to relapse into widespread violence,” said Abdulaziz Alshehhi, deputy head of the research sector at Trends Research and Advisory.

Looking ahead

When US President Donald Trump announced during a state visit to Riyadh in May that he would lift American sanctions on Syria, it provided motivation and reassurance for investors to step up their engagement.

The shift in Syria’s leadership also altered the region’s power dynamics. Had last month’s Israel-Iran war taken place in earlier years, Syria might have served as a launch pad for Iran-backed attacks on Israel. This time, it did not.

Now, as Gulf capitals invest in Syria’s physical and political reconstruction, they are also investing in a narrative: that Arab-led solutions can succeed where international efforts have stalled.

“What is most important is that Syria gets back to the Arab fold,” said Mr Alshehhi. “If this role isn’t played by Arab states, particularly by the Gulf, we risk repeating the previous scenario, where Syria turned elsewhere for support, with dangerous consequences for Syria and the region.”