The death of a French peacekeeper in southern Lebanon, a month after three Indonesian peacekeepers were killed in the area, has only worsened the sense of instability gripping the country, months before UN forces are due to leave.
The Unifil mission is scheduled to begin withdrawing its 7,500 peacekeepers at the end of the year, after the US last summer vetoed the renewal of its mandate at the UN Security Council, with Israeli support.
The decision has raised questions about how the border area will be policed in the future. For more than four decades, Unifil monitored the so-called Blue Line, supported the Lebanese military in disarming Hezbollah and conducted humanitarian operations.
Future plan
Behind the scenes, diplomats in New York, Paris and Brussels are working on a plan, The National understands.
Although most UN members are open to Unifil remaining in Lebanon beyond December, there seems little point in pushing back against the US and Israel, which are resolute in demanding its mandate ends, said Daniel Forti, head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group. “They are instead attempting to lay the political and operational groundwork for a configuration that could succeed the UN mission,” Mr Forti told The National.
France, which has colonial ties with Lebanon, has led talks in laying the ground for post-Unifil scenarios in the south. “As the end of Unifil's mandate approaches, we must, together with the Lebanese authorities and other countries involved, prepare for the future so that the Lebanese state can fully exercise its monopoly on arms, its sovereignty, and thus protect all communities,” French Foreign Ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux told The National. “France will remain committed, particularly in southern Lebanon.”
Unifil has been historically viewed with suspicion by Hezbollah and Israel, which has blamed it for failing to disarm the Iran-backed militia. Proponents of the mission stress that it only had a supporting role in the country. They also argue that having the UN in the field is a deterrent.
Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, shortly before President Emmanuel Macron was to host Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Paris, an adviser to the French President said talks were taking place with European countries already invested in Unifil, including Spain, Italy and Germany.
"These actors today contribute quite directly to the reflection on what an international force in support of the Lebanese government could look like," the adviser said, adding this did not mean they would be necessarily involved in Lebanon after the UN mission's withdrawal.
US veto
In August 2025, the US approved Unifil's renewal for the final time, Washington's acting ambassador Dorothea Shea said, as she called on the Lebanese military to “assume greater responsibility". Washington had initially wanted Unifil to leave within weeks, but France succeeded in negotiating an 18-month extension, The National understands.
The resolution, adopted on August 28, requested UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to explore, by June 1, “options for assistance in respect of security and monitoring of the Blue Line and the ways to enhance the support to the [Lebanese armed forces] redeployment south of Litani River through United Nations’ tools".
Paris hoped that would give time for the Lebanese military to take up positions in the south, a Hezbollah stronghold, while also extending support to the government. Lebanon's leaders have set out a plan to disarm the militia and insisted weapons should be under the control of the state.
Many in Lebanon fear it will cause internal strife in a country scarred by sectarian divisions. Hezbollah – also a powerful political party – was the only militia to remain armed after the 1975-1990 civil war with the aim of fighting against Israel. The group was created in 1982 in response to Israel's first invasion of southern Lebanon in 1976, with the goal at the time of pushing out Palestinian fighters.
Two years later, Unifil was deployed in southern Lebanon. In 2000, Israel withdrew from the area, largely because of Hezbollah's guerrilla tactics. Israel's attempts to destroy the group in the following years largely failed, but it succeeded in weakening the militia in 2024.
War again
In early March, Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel in solidarity with Iran, after joint US-Israeli strikes against the country. Hezbollah's attacks did not cause casualties. But they led to Israeli retaliation that has so far killed about 2,200 Lebanese.
Before the latest escalation, plans had been floated to reinforce other UN missions, such as the UN political mission in Beirut and the UN truce supervision organisation in Jerusalem, so they could send observers to the Blue Line. The EU could also have overseen the deployment of an observation mission within the Lebanese military.
These ideas have since been largely shelved. Conditions on the ground have become far more dangerous than when the final extension of Unifil was agreed on. Paris had to cancel a March 5 conference in support of the Lebanese army following the start of the Iran war. France was also pushed out of Lebanon peace talks by Israel, raising questions about its ability to influence any future framework in the border area.
“The notion that the UN and Europeans could share these responsibilities makes sense on paper. But the primary challenge confronting any multilateral arrangement in southern Lebanon will be political and not operational,” Mr Forti said.
Questioned by The National this month, European Commission spokesman Anouar El Anouni declined to elaborate on the bloc's thinking about the future of Unifil. “We will continue to support Lebanon alongside our member states and in co-ordination with the United Nations,” he said.
Should a future observation mission in southern Lebanon arise, it is unlikely to be armed, raising further questions about whether states would feel comfortable dispatching observers to a high-risk environment.
“Unifil peacekeepers carry weapons and are authorised to use force only in limited situations, but having only unarmed peacekeepers would still be a very different scenario,” Unifil spokeswoman Kandice Ardiel told The National.
Her predecessor, Andrea Tenenti, who left the job in September after two decades, thinks there may still be a role for Unifil. “At some point, after another cessation of hostilities, the international community and the US will understand the need to have the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
“The US won't do it. Even Israel was not able to do it in the past years of conflict. To be frank, it's more convenient for the main stakeholders to have a peacekeeping mission that you can blame to do the job instead of doing it yourself.”
Destroyed bridges
Israel's destruction of most of the bridges linking southern Lebanon to the rest of the country has also raised questions on Unifil's ability to withdraw. This week, the Lebanese military started building a temporary bridge and repair roads.
“You're looking at withdrawing 7,500 troops in a complicated situation. Right now, we are dealing with unexploded ordinance in the road and roadblocks,” Ms Ardiel said.
“Most of the bridges have been destroyed in recent weeks. Hopefully, they will be restored, but if we are in that scenario again, we would have to take detours or build our own bridges. All of this would make things extremely complicated.”
The future of political negotiations looks bleak as Tehran continues to tie its own regional ceasefire to the situation in Lebanon, despite a fragile 10-day ceasefire agreed last week by Israel under US pressure.
“There will need to be some sort of political understanding between Lebanon and Israel to underpin any international arrangement that follows Unifil. Without that framework, any multilateral operation will face an uphill battle,” Mr Forti said.
Meanwhile, Israeli tanks have obstructed the Blue Helmets' freedom of movement, interrupting Unifil's supply chains and causing some isolated Nepalese positions to nearly run out of water this month.
In late March, one Indonesian peacekeeper was killed by an Israeli strike, while two others died the next day in a roadside bomb planted by Hezbollah, according to Unifil's preliminary findings published on April 7.
French media also reported that Israeli soldiers pointed their weapons at Unifil's chief of staff, Paul Sanzey, who is French, before firing at two separate convoys, without causing casualties. They were “unjustifiable” acts of “intimidation", French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said.
On Saturday, a French soldier died in a shooting incident reportedly involving Hezbollah members. “France demands that the Lebanese authorities immediately arrest the perpetrators and take their responsibilities alongside Unifil,” Mr Macron said on X.
The incident happened as the soldier's team tried to remove a roadside bomb despite a group of Lebanese men telling them to stop, a French source told Le Monde. “The French soldiers saw those who were shooting at them. They were Hezbollah members,” the source is quoted as saying. He added that “there was no decision from [Hezbollah's] central command” to attack them.
The incident is still under investigation, Unifil said.
Now, Israel is in the process of establishing a 10km buffer zone inside Lebanon along the Blue Line by using dynamite to destroy civilian buildings in the areas of Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun and Tyre, Lebanese media reported. Israel said it needs to protect itself from Hezbollah.
Observers such as Mr Macron's special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, have said this will strengthen the popularity of armed resistance to the Israeli occupation – Hezbollah's motto. This could further fuel the more than four-decade old cycle of violence in southern Lebanon.
