Europe urged 'the sooner, the better' in move to recognise Palestinian statehood

First high-level EU-Palestinian political dialogue sparks optimism but some diplomats express reservations

From left, Slovenia’s Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon, her Luxembourg counterpart Xavier Bettel and Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa at the meeting in Luxembourg. AFP

Several European Union countries have expressed interest in recognising Palestinian statehood ahead of a key international peace conference in June, Palestine's Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa has said.

Speaking in Luxembourg alongside the EU's foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, and Dubravka Suica, the European Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Mr Mustafa struck an optimistic tone despite scepticism that major EU powers such Germany, Italy and the Netherlands will align with France's call for co-ordinated recognition.

"I think we have heard some encouraging comments from some key members of the EU about their interest and willingness to consider seriously recognition in the near future, and I think the sooner, the better," Mr Mustafa said, answering a question from The National.

"Some of them are waiting for the June conference, the International Peace Conference, that will be held in New York on June 17 to make that announcement. But we do encourage countries to do that as soon as possible."

The Luxembourg talks marked the first high-level EU-Palestinian political dialogue, with Mr Mustafa meeting the bloc's 27 foreign ministers and holding bilateral meetings with his counterparts from Spain, the Netherlands, Malta, Luxembourg, Belgium and Malta.

EU officials described the meeting as part of Brussels' efforts to equally engage both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA), despite the latter lacking a formal association agreement with the bloc.

A former World Bank official, Mr Mustafa appears to have given a favourable impression to European diplomats. He was accompanied by Palestinian Foreign Minister, Varsen Aghabekian Shahinand, and Minister of Planning and International Co-operation, Wael Zakout.

"It's a real pleasure to have this first-ever high-level political dialogue and I hope that there are many, many more such meetings to come," Ms Kallas said. "Let me again express our solidarity with the Palestinian people at the appalling loss of life and destruction in Gaza."

Macron's plans for Palestine

While the EU supports a two-state solution and has condemned Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, the bloc is historically divided on the Israel-Palestine conflict, with limited influence on peace efforts. The EU remains, however, the biggest financial donor to the PA.

Yet French President Emmanuel Macron has recently emerged as a vocal advocate for Palestinian statehood. After a recent trip to Egypt near the Gaza border, Mr Macron said he would recognise Palestinian statehood at the conference in June. Speaking to the PA leader Mahmoud Abbas on Monday, Mr Macron said he wanted the authority to assume responsibility for Gaza from Hamas in a "day after" scenario once the war has ended. "This should allow progress towards a two-state political solution, with a view to the peace conference in June, in the service of peace and security for all," he said.

The Macron push is viewed as a significant shift in a country often seen as a mediator between pro-Palestine and pro-Israel EU countries. As a member of the Group of Seven and the UN Security Council, the French stance carries weight.

Mr Macron also aims to encourage western countries to follow suit while pushing for Arab states to establish relations with Israel. While Mr Macron has not clarified which Arab states he is alluding to, French diplomats and analysts have suggested Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has made it clear that establishing ties with Israel depends on a clear path to Palestinian statehood.

In a phone call with Mr Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday expressed his strong opposition to the French President's plans, saying "this would constitute a huge reward for terrorism", his office reported.

In Europe, Mr Macron's initiative has left many European diplomats puzzled. "It’s not obvious why Macron is doing it at this point in time and what is the impulse," one diplomat told The National.

Linking too many conditions to Palestinian recognition is unnecessary and complicated, a ministerial source from a pro-Palestinian EU country said. "If you think it's important, then you do it," they said. "[Even] if Saudi Arabia doesn’t follow, I would still encourage Macron to do it."

Despite Mr Macron's push, major EU players remain hesitant. The incoming German coalition government will be dominated by conservatives who will be reluctant to change decades of Middle East policy rooted in historical responsibility towards Israel.

The Netherlands last week summoned Israel's ambassador over the killing of aid workers in the Gaza Strip and has tightened arms exports controls, but domestic politics – dominated by anti-Islam populist politician Geert Wilders – make recognition unlikely.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hopes to capitalise politically on her proximity with US President Donald Trump, also Israel's strongest ally.

There are reports that Mr Macron may be able to convince the non-EU UK – also a G7 country and Security Council member – to join him in recognising Palestinian statehood in June. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has yet to express public support.

"This really depends on Macron's powers of persuasion," a second European diplomat said. "But who knows what might happen in European public opinions by June?"

Italy's decisive role

The prospect of unilateral recognition remains controversial. Israel has all but cut diplomatic ties with Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and non-EU Norway after they recognised Palestine last year. While 11 EU countries have recognises Palestine, many – such as Hungary and the Czech Republic – did so under Soviet-era governments and have since shifted to a pro-Israeli position. In total, 149 countries in the world recognise Palestine.

Italy could prove decisive. Analysts say that if enough EU countries join Mr Macron, Ms Meloni's government may face pressure to reconsider. Italy is a typical example of European "strategic ambiguity" – a reference to support for a two-state solution while refusing to recognise Palestinian statehood – said Maria Luisa Fantappie, the Head of Africa and Middle East Programme at Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank in Rome.

The tense relationship between Mr Macron and Ms Meloni – seen as rival power brokers in Europe – adds a personal edge. "There is definitely a strong womanship v strong manship issue at stake," Ms Fantappie told The National.

"But if Mr Macron's proposal is supported by many other EU member states, it will be very difficult for the Meloni government and her coalition partners to say that they will not support it – precisely because Italy has long traditional of support for Palestine."

Kelly Petillo, programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said it was an unlikely move, highlighting Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani's comment in February that "Palestine does not exist".

"While at the grass-roots level, people are expressing solidarity with the Palestinians, overall people are reluctant to question Israel’s military actions and the balance is tipped towards supporting Israel," Ms Petillo said. "People tend to be less familiar with the domestic politics in the country or Israel’s actions to oppress the Palestinians even before the Gaza war."

Europe's delicate balancing act on Palestine has been acknowledged at the highest level. Speaking on Tuesday, Ms Kallas said divisions were slowing down further sanctions against extremist settlers in the West Bank who harass or kill Palestinians. Pro-Israel EU countries want this to be accompanied by equivalent sanctions against Hamas, which is listed as a terror organisation. The EU has issued several rounds of sanctions against Hamas since the October 7 attacks on Israel in 2023.

"We have proposed sanctions. But so far, we don't have 27 member states on board. Some member states are saying that, yes, it should be on equal footing to put members of Hamas under sanctions," she said, answering a question from The National. "To be very clear, we have put many and there are not many left."

With time ticking towards the June 17 conference, momentum for recognising Palestine may hinge on Mr Macron's ability to turn declarations into a co-ordinated European policy announcement.