"I am not losing to Joe Biden," US President Donald Trump reportedly told his then campaign manager, Brad Parscale, in April as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged American towns and cities and significantly diminished his chances of re-election on November 3. Mr Trump used an expletive for emphasis.
Three months on since that conversation was first reported by the Associated Press, Mr Trump's poll numbers are still plummeting, the pandemic has killed nearly 150,000 lives in the US, Mr Parscale is no longer campaign manager and the Trump team is shifting tactics to try to avoid an electoral defeat in 100 days.
For Mr Trump, 2020 is proving to be a Herculean challenge compared to 2016. Four years ago, the political ascent of the property mogul and TV celebrity was built on slogans such as "America First", "bring manufacturing jobs back" and "rebuild the military", and promises to curb immigration and impose tariffs. Now, with unemployment at more than 11 per cent, thousands of manufacturing jobs lost, trade wars and the US military withdrawing troops and assets from Germany, Mr Trump has lost the advantage of running on grandiose promises and is instead being evaluated on his record as an incumbent president.
One hundred days from the election, Mr Trump is privately and publicly blaming the coronavirus for his woes. With more than four million cases reported in the US, Mr Trump says the virus – not his management of the pandemic – is responsible for the downturn. "I built the greatest economy ever built anywhere in the world; not only of this country, anywhere in the world. Until we got hit with the China virus," Mr Trump told Fox News last week. Privately, self-victimisation is occasionally heard from the president in complaining about the effects of the pandemic on his election chances.
The outbreak is a fork in the road in this election; unemployment shot up from 3.8 per cent in February to 14.4 per cent in April. Popular upheaval in the form of right-wing protests against lockdowns and Black Lives Matter protests against racism have transformed the 2020 election landscape. In Florida, an important swing state that is now the hot spot of the virus, Mr Trump is trailing Mr Biden by 13 points, according to a Quinnipiac poll released last Thursday. In Texas, another Covid-19 hot spot and a state that no Democrat running for president has won since 1976, the Quinnipiac poll shows Mr Biden ahead by one point against Mr Trump.
In poll after poll, Mr Biden has double-digit leads in his views on handling the virus and race relations, and narrowly leads on the economy. Unlike in 2016, when Mr Trump was on the offensive against Hillary Clinton and the political establishment, this time around he is on the defensive, having to explain his reluctance to wear a face mask until July and his calls to slow down testing.
But even with such a lead for Mr Biden, the race is far from over and Mr Trump, who surprised everyone including his own Republican party with his win in 2016, cannot be counted out. William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, describes the Trump campaign as facing "a crisis so pervasive that it threatens to take down not only his presidency but his entire [Republican] party". The party leadership, according to Vanity Fair, has given Mr Trump until Labour Day (September 7) to steer the sinking ship or risk having Republicans running in key states distance themselves from the president.
Despite his woes, Mr Trump could still turn his campaign around, Mr Galston says. “If a vaccine demonstrates its safety and effectiveness by early fall and new cases begin to drop, the public mood could shift. The president could admit error and change course in both substance and tone.”
The presidential debates could present another opportunity for Mr Trump, given Mr Biden's meek performance in the Democratic debates to win the party nomination. But with Covid-19 cases increasing, continued protests and no signs yet that a vaccine will be available by November, Mr Trump faces an uphill battle for re-election.
It is a battle that the US president still insists he will win. “You know how many times I have been written off? Do you know how many times I’ve been written off?” Mr Trump asked rhetorically on Fox News before predicting that he will prevail in November.
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The five pillars of Islam
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')
Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
England ODI squad
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Jake Ball, Sam Billings, Jos Buttler, Tom Curran, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood.
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The view from The National
England squad
Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Dominic Bess, James Bracey, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Ben Foakes, Lewis Gregory, Keaton Jennings, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Craig Overton, Jamie Overton, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Amar Virdi, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
