"I am not losing to Joe Biden," US President Donald Trump reportedly told his then campaign manager, Brad Parscale, in April as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged American towns and cities and significantly diminished his chances of re-election on November 3. Mr Trump used an expletive for emphasis.
Three months on since that conversation was first reported by the Associated Press, Mr Trump's poll numbers are still plummeting, the pandemic has killed nearly 150,000 lives in the US, Mr Parscale is no longer campaign manager and the Trump team is shifting tactics to try to avoid an electoral defeat in 100 days.
For Mr Trump, 2020 is proving to be a Herculean challenge compared to 2016. Four years ago, the political ascent of the property mogul and TV celebrity was built on slogans such as "America First", "bring manufacturing jobs back" and "rebuild the military", and promises to curb immigration and impose tariffs. Now, with unemployment at more than 11 per cent, thousands of manufacturing jobs lost, trade wars and the US military withdrawing troops and assets from Germany, Mr Trump has lost the advantage of running on grandiose promises and is instead being evaluated on his record as an incumbent president.
One hundred days from the election, Mr Trump is privately and publicly blaming the coronavirus for his woes. With more than four million cases reported in the US, Mr Trump says the virus – not his management of the pandemic – is responsible for the downturn. "I built the greatest economy ever built anywhere in the world; not only of this country, anywhere in the world. Until we got hit with the China virus," Mr Trump told Fox News last week. Privately, self-victimisation is occasionally heard from the president in complaining about the effects of the pandemic on his election chances.
The outbreak is a fork in the road in this election; unemployment shot up from 3.8 per cent in February to 14.4 per cent in April. Popular upheaval in the form of right-wing protests against lockdowns and Black Lives Matter protests against racism have transformed the 2020 election landscape. In Florida, an important swing state that is now the hot spot of the virus, Mr Trump is trailing Mr Biden by 13 points, according to a Quinnipiac poll released last Thursday. In Texas, another Covid-19 hot spot and a state that no Democrat running for president has won since 1976, the Quinnipiac poll shows Mr Biden ahead by one point against Mr Trump.
In poll after poll, Mr Biden has double-digit leads in his views on handling the virus and race relations, and narrowly leads on the economy. Unlike in 2016, when Mr Trump was on the offensive against Hillary Clinton and the political establishment, this time around he is on the defensive, having to explain his reluctance to wear a face mask until July and his calls to slow down testing.
But even with such a lead for Mr Biden, the race is far from over and Mr Trump, who surprised everyone including his own Republican party with his win in 2016, cannot be counted out. William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, describes the Trump campaign as facing "a crisis so pervasive that it threatens to take down not only his presidency but his entire [Republican] party". The party leadership, according to Vanity Fair, has given Mr Trump until Labour Day (September 7) to steer the sinking ship or risk having Republicans running in key states distance themselves from the president.
Despite his woes, Mr Trump could still turn his campaign around, Mr Galston says. “If a vaccine demonstrates its safety and effectiveness by early fall and new cases begin to drop, the public mood could shift. The president could admit error and change course in both substance and tone.”
The presidential debates could present another opportunity for Mr Trump, given Mr Biden's meek performance in the Democratic debates to win the party nomination. But with Covid-19 cases increasing, continued protests and no signs yet that a vaccine will be available by November, Mr Trump faces an uphill battle for re-election.
It is a battle that the US president still insists he will win. “You know how many times I have been written off? Do you know how many times I’ve been written off?” Mr Trump asked rhetorically on Fox News before predicting that he will prevail in November.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: M'A Yaromoon, Jesus Rosales (jockey), Khalifa Al Neydai (trainer)
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: No Riesgo Al Maury, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Mahmouda, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AS Jezan, George Buckell, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Dolman, Antonio Fresu, Bhupath Seemar
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
