An unexpected fall in Pakistan's daily coronavirus toll has been seized on by ministers as proof the country's strategy is working, but met opposition accusations the government is fiddling the numbers.
Daily death and case tallies have both fallen in recent weeks, confounding earlier predictions that the outbreak would keep getting worse until at least the end of July.
Nationwide death tolls have fallen from as high as 150 per day in mid-June to around 70 or 80 per day now. Daily case totals have also fallen from as high as 6,000 per day last month, to now hovering around 3,000. The total number of positive cases in Pakistan stands at 246,351, of which 5,123 people have died.
Imran Khan's government has said the fall justifies its new “smart lockdown” strategy which has seen individual neighourhoods containing virus hotspots sealed up by police for up to 14 days.
Yet the fall has coincided with a sharp drop in testing, with around a quarter fewer people being tested for the coronavirus each day.
Senator Sherry Rehman, opposition leader for the Pakistan Peoples Party in the senate, said testing appeared to have been cut deliberately, to reduce the case numbers.
"If they don't test or ramp up testing, then obviously there are fewer cases," she told The National.
She accused Mr Khan's government of squandering time during the outbreak's early days that could have been used to ready hospitals and a better tracking and tracing system.
“It's quite conscious that they never came up to the numbers that they promised to test,” she said.
Asad Umar, the planning minister overseeing the government's response, said on Saturday that the figures from hospitals were also improving. The number of Covid-19 patients on ventilators had fallen a quarter since June 20, he said.
“The effect of smart lockdown, administrative actions to implement standard operating procedures, and most importantly better public cooperation is significantly visible,” he tweeted.
Faisal Sultan, the epidemiologist who is Imran Khan's special adviser on Covid-19, said last week that the reduction in testing was due to a fall in demand, with fewer people feeling ill. Tests on all air passengers entering Pakistan have also been halted.
International health officials have admitted that the fall in testing has made it more difficult to judge the shape of the epidemic. Official caseloads have never represented the true scale of the outbreak in the country.
As recently as a fortnight ago, ministers were bracing for the outbreak not to peak for weeks. One senior official involved in the response had said then that the predictions for late July “look bad”.
"We’re looking into why testing has gone down. The models and current figures just don’t align," said one international official.
Individual neighbourhoods across the country meanwhile continue to be locked down.
Mr Khan has pleaded with Pakistanis to celebrate the upcoming Eid ul-Adha holiday cautiously. Careless socialising during Eid ul-Fitr celebrations at the end of Ramadan in May were blamed for creating June's surge of cases and health officials fear a re-run at the end of this month.
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Empty Words
By Mario Levrero
(Coffee House Press)
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
The specs
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Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
