From matchday revenue to transfer fees - how coronavirus could affect football's finances

Football finance expert Rob Wilson explains how the suspension of fixtures could have far-reaching consequences

Arsenal's Emirates Stadium in North London, England. The Gunners manager Mikel Arteta was on Friday confirmed to have contracted the coronavirus. AFP

General view outside Villa Park, home of Premier League side Aston Villa, who were due to host Chelsea on Saturday. The Premier League is suspended due to fears over the coronavirus. Reuters

The empty entrance to the Camp Nou stadium in Barcelona after La Liga said Spain's top two divisions would be suspended for at least two weeks over the coronavirus outbreak. AFP

Stamford Bridge, the home of Chelsea Football Club, in West London. Chelsea player Callum Hudson-Odoi is a confirmed case of the Covid-19 virus. AFP

Everton's Goodison Park. Everton were set to host Merseyside rivals Liverpool on Monday before the English football authorities suspended all games at least until April. Reuters

Juventus' Allianz Arena in Turin. Juventus player Daniele Rugani tested positive for coronavirus last week, as Serie A suspended all matches. Reuters

Fams with a Romanian flag outside Luton's ground. Championship matchs have also been suspended. Reuters

Manchester City's Etihad Stadium. City's midweek fixture against Arsenal was the first top-tier English football match postponed due to the coronavirus. City were due to host Burnley at home in the Premier League on Saturday. Reuters

Middlesbrough's Riverside Stadium is empty after the Championship match against Swansea City was postponed. Reuters

Newcastle United's St James' Park. The Premier League club were due to host Sheffield United on Saturday. Reuters

Carrow Road, home of Premier League basement club Norwich City. The Canaries were set to play Southampton on Saturday. Reuters

Hampden Park was supposed to host the Glasgow derby between Rangers and Celtic on Saturday before football at all levels in Scotland was called off because of the coronavirus. Reuters

A woman wearing a protective face mask arrives at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid as Real Madrid players went into quarantine due to the coronavirus outbreak, on March 12, 2020. Madrid were set to host Eibar in La Liga on Sunday. AFP

General view of Vicarage Road, home of Watford, which was due to host the opening Premier League match of this weekend when the Hornets were slated to face Leicester City. Reuters

West Bromwich Albion's home ground The Hawthorns. The Championship club were set to play Birmingham City on Saturday afternoon. Reuters

West Ham United's London Stadium was set to host the match against Wolves on Sunday before the match was postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak. EPA

Who pays for football’s financial losses?

The Premier League has broadcasting contracts worth about £3 billion (Dh13.5bn) a year. The season might not finish. But football finance expert Rob Wilson of Sheffield Hallam University warned: “If there was a 20 per cent reduction in number of games, it would probably follow the broadcasters and sponsors would pay 20 percent less.”

The majority of Premier League clubs’ expenditure goes on wages and unless they are covered by insurance – “that would be on a club-by-club basis,” Wilson said – perhaps they can only claw back some of that money by not paying players.

How will lower-league clubs cope?

“For some clubs in League Two upwards of 75 or 80 per cent of their revenue will be made up of matchday ticket receipts,” Wilson said. “If the season gets cancelled or stopped, we are going to have a number of clubs in difficulty.”

In short, clubs could go to the wall. Darragh McAnthony, owner of League One Peterborough, said: “The average League One and Two club is going to need a loan of £300,000 to £400,000 each.”

Can the game’s governing bodies help?

“There is revenue at Fifa that they could repurpose,” Wilson said. But would they?

Will some countries suffer more than others?

One report from Banca IMI said that Juventus could lose up to $122 million (Dh448m) if their season in broadcasting, sponsorship and ticket prices is cancelled. Thus far, Italy has been Europe’s epicentre of the coronavirus and their clubs look likely to suffer most financially. “Definitely Serie A are the ones that are looking hardest hit,” Wilson said.

How will the financial crisis affect the transfer market?

With many clubs suffering unexpected losses, there could be deflation in prices and wages. “That is highly likely,” Wilson said. “Even if they end up finishing the season I think there is going to be a bit of pressure on the transfer system and I can see transfer fees and wages coming down this summer.”

What does it mean for Financial Fair Play?

Many clubs only narrowly pass football’s profit and sustainability rules. Take away a chunk of their income and will a group all fail and have to pay a penalty? “I think they will amend the regulations as a one-off to say, an eight per cent reduction in your income,” Wilson said. “To provide some breathing space for X million in the FFP regulations for this particular three-year period.”

What other factors are there?

A global recession appears almost inevitable as sectors of major economies go into lockdown. That could make it harder to secure sponsors.

What about pre-season tours?

European teams often tend to look for lucrative trips to Asia or North America before the season starts. That may not be possible this year, and not merely because the coronavirus could be peaking in the United States then. Wilson said: “If the European football season gets pushed into late June or July, you can imagine the governing bodies saying, you aren’t having any pre-season tours.”

Does this end the expanded Club World Cup?

Uefa are convening a meeting on Tuesday to discuss what this means for the Champions League and the Europa League, with the suggestion that both could be reduced to one-leg quarter- and semi-finals and the finals played on the planned dates. The expectation is that Euro 2020 will be postponed for a year.

The summer of 2021 was when Fifa was planning its bigger Club World Cup, including eight European teams. "We will probably see that not happening," Wilson added. "If anything is going to go, it is something like that."