Can Pakistan still qualify for Champions Trophy semi-finals?

Virat Kohli century handed tournament hosts second heavy defeat in Dubai on Sunday

Pakistan's Babar Azam speaks with India's Virat Kohli during their Champions Trophy match in Dubai. AFP

After waiting for close to three decades to host a major ICC tournament, Pakistan fans saw their hopes dashed inside one week of the Champions Trophy following another emphatic and embarrassing defeat, this time to rivals India in Dubai.

Pakistan players and supporters were charged up for their biggest cricket assignment of this century. But a heavy defeat to New Zealand in the tournament opener in Karachi, followed by an even bigger capitulation against India in Dubai has left Pakistan cricket in tatters.

While Pakistan were crushed by centuries from Tom Latham and Will Young in their opening match, a Virat Kohli masterclass added further misery on Sunday.

Captain Mohammad Rizwan admitted the pressure got to his team against India.

"The middle order wasn't good enough," the Pakistan wicketkeeper batsman said.

"The players performed well before this. In our meeting we had discussed that on this pitch around 270-280 would be enough [but] because the outfield was slow, the pitch was slow, the ball wasn't going into the gaps.

"Saud [Shakeel] and I tried to build a partnership and took a lot of time, but after that the shot selection was poor. That's where they got a chance to take our wickets. Our middle order maybe couldn't take the pressure."

Pakistan's six-wicket defeat leaves them in the all-too-familiar position of depending on other results to secure qualification for the semi-finals.

"As a captain, I don't like this [depending on other teams]. If you're good enough, you show it by winning and keeping things in your hands."

Virat Kohli's century helped India defeat Pakistan by six wickets in the Champions Trophy clash at Dubai International Stadium on February 23, 2025. Reuters

India's Virat Kohli finished with 100 off 111 balls including seven fours. AP

Pakistan bowler Abrar Ahmed celebrates the wicket of India's in-form opener Shubman Gill for 46. Getty Images

India's Shreyas Iyer hit 56 off 67 balls including five fours and one six. AFP

India captain Rohit Sharma is bowled out by Shaheen Shah Afridi of Pakistan (not pictured) for 20. Getty Images

Pakistan's Shaheen Shah Afridi celebrates after taking the wicket of India opener Rohit Sharma. AFP

Saud Shakeel top-scored for Pakistan after hitting 62 off 76 balls, including five fours. Pakistan were bowled out for 241 in their innings. AP

India's Hardik Pandya, centre, celebrates with teammates following the wicket of Pakistan batter Saud Shakeel. AP

Pakistan captain Mohammad Rizwan looks at his wicket after being bowled for 46 by Axar Patel (not in picture). His knock came off 77 balls and included three fours. AP

India fielder Axar Patel takes the catch to dismiss Pakistan's Saud Shakeel. AFP

Khushdil Shah hit a quickfire 38 off 39 balls for Pakistan, including two sixes. Getty Images

India bowler Hardik Pandya, centre, celebrates after claiming the wicket of Pakistan's Babar Azam for 23. AP

India's Axar Patel runs out Pakistan opener Imam-ul-Haq for 10. AFP

India's Axar Patel, second from right, celebrates with Kuldeep Yadav after running out Imam-ul-Haq of Pakistan. AP

Can Pakistan still qualify for semi-finals?

Incredibly, Pakistan are still not out of contention, although they only have a mathematical chance of making it to the next stage.

The way the Champions Trophy is scheduled, a short group stage is followed by the semi-finals. Two early defeats is almost the end of the road.

But Pakistan still have a chance, albeit minuscule. India currently top Group A with two wins from two matches, while New Zealand have one win under their belt.

For Pakistan to have any chances in the tournament, they need New Zealand to lose to Bangladesh, defeat Bangladesh by a big margin and then hope for India to defeat New Zealand in the remaining group phase games.

In that scenario, India will top the table with three wins and the other three teams will be locked on one win each. Thereafter, net run rate will come into play.

If New Zealand win against the Tigers on Monday, that will be the end of the campaign for Pakistan.

Apart from the results, weather is a factor as well. Rawalpindi, that is set to host the Pakistan v Bangladesh match on Thursday, is expecting rain for most of this week, which could make a full match very difficult.

If Pakistan do get knocked out early in the tournament, they will only have themselves to blame.

Champions Trophy remaining fixtures

Monday, February 24 - Bangladesh v New Zealand, Rawalpindi

Tuesday, February 25 – Australia v South Africa, Rawalpindi

Wednesday, February 26 – Afghanistan v England, Lahore

Thursday, February 27 – Pakistan v Bangladesh, Rawalpindi

Friday, February 28 – Afghanistan v Australia, Lahore

Saturday, March 1 – South Africa v England, Karachi

Sunday, March 2 – New Zealand v India, Dubai

Tuesday, March 4 – Semi-final 1, Dubai

Wednesday, March 5 – Semi-final 2, Lahore

Sunday, March 9 – Final, Lahore (If India qualify, the final will be played in Dubai)