When Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on Sunday morning that it was launching retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel and 27 US bases in the Middle East, it described its actions as “successive regrettable slaps”.
That expression of regret will cut little ice with citizens and residents of the Gulf countries that have been targeted despite explicitly calling for diplomatic solutions. Millions of people from Kuwait to Dubai are living with the shock of indiscriminate Iranian bombardment that targeted civilian targets during a Ramadan weekend. Hotels, airports and residential high-rises – all are largely protected by strong defence systems but still felt the adverse effects of interceptions
As Iran attacks its neighbours following the violent death of its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials on Saturday, rather than deterring further Israeli or US aggression, it is the people of the Gulf who find themselves in the line of fire. As well as several deaths and dozens of injuries caused by shrapnel and debris from intercepted drones and missiles, there is the concern of uncertainly of the days to come.
But as civilians across the Gulf join Iran’s long-suffering population in paying for Tehran’s strategic and tactical missteps – as well as Israeli and US adventurism – there is no sense of panic. The UAE authorities have been quick to reassure the public that things are in hand. Indeed, despite the dangers posed by Iranian weapons, the country’s air defences have intercepted the vast majority of strikes aimed at the Emirates’ civilian infrastructure. Nor is there any suggestion that services from electricity and food supplies to internet to shopping are likely to be interrupted. As with the country’s response to another acute emergency – the Covid-19 pandemic – there is a pervading sense of “keep calm and carry on”.
Where does the region go from here? It is difficult to predict, as wars are easier to start but much more difficult to end.
What is certain is that when this moment of crisis passes, it will be challenging to repair relationships. The UAE and its GCC neighbours worked day and night for weeks to head off the possibility of armed conflict, calling for dialogue both in private and in public. The sudden derailing of Omani-led mediation between the US and Iran, and Tehran’s unjustified targeting of neighbouring countries, presents troubling issues regarding trust and future ties.
Nevertheless, dialogue and de-escalation remain the only logical choices. As Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, said at the weekend: "Regardless of our differences with Iran, we are neighbours and we chose the path of peace and dialogue because the region cannot afford more conflict." That is true for the people who call this part of the world home, whether in Dubai or Doha, Riyadh or Tehran. The quicker this conflict ends, the better.
