When it comes to governing styles, US President Donald Trump’s novel approach to policymaking is one that often leaves friends and foes guessing. However, one thing that should be unsurprising is Mr Trump’s decision to make the Arabian Gulf the destination for his first official overseas visit since beginning his second term in office – to the exception of his visit to Rome this week to attend the Pope’s funeral.
The US has abiding economic, security and diplomatic ties with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the three Gulf countries Mr Trump will visit next month. Regardless of the uncertainty caused by Mr Trump’s trade tariffs in recent weeks, business between the US and the Emirates remains robust – according to the US government, American imports from the UAE last year were worth $7.5 billion, up 12.9 per cent from 2023. Earlier this month, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright met senior officials in the Emirates, and bilateral investments are robust.
Mr Trump set a precedent for Gulf in his first term by making Saudi Arabia his first international destination as President in his first term. US partnerships with the UAE, Bahrain and other Arab countries eventually resulted in the Abraham Accords, one of the boldest attempts yet to reset relations across the Middle East.
However, Mr Trump’s coming visit to the Gulf will take place amid very different and arguably more unpredictable circumstances. The war in Gaza continues and Yemen’s Houthi rebels more boldly threaten Red Sea shipping. A new administration in Syria is trying to stabilise the country after the collapse of the Bashar Al Assad government in December. Another new government, this time in neighbouring Lebanon, is confronted by Israeli occupation and the challenge of rebuilding a country fractured by war and years of political inertia. Iran has embarked on a talks process with the US as Tehran’s regional network of armed proxies flounders.
The pace of such change makes Mr Trump’s planned visit a timely one, not least because it is an opportune moment for the Gulf’s voices to be heard.
The UAE has been working hard to foster international peace, having recently helped to broker the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine since the conflict between the two nations broke out more than three years ago. Oman has been building on its reputation as a trusted mediator in recent weeks by facilitating the US-Iran nuclear negotiations. A rare visit by a senior Saudi figure – Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman – to Iran last week highlighted the kingdom’s proactive diplomacy. The Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman as well as other Arab powers, Egypt in particular, have also consistently called for a ceasefire in Gaza and provided a detailed blueprint for post-war reconstruction.
Mr Trump’s visit is an opportunity to turbocharge these efforts and is eagerly anticipated. Economic and business ties will feature high on the agenda, as prosperity and stability are interconnected.
